It's been a fantastic week for both sharp bettors and those following this column, resulting in a four-game winning streak with relatively easy covers. While everyone should obviously enjoy these streaks, it's also extremely important to continue practicing disciplined bankroll management
Anybody who has done this long enough has been through periods when you feel like you can't lose a bet and other times when a single cover feels impossible. While difficult, keeping emotion out of sports-betting decisions is the key to weathering the ups and downs, specifically ensuring you're not increasing your bet sizes simply because of a hot streak.
With discipline the theme of today's column, sharp bettors have been extremely selective in early betting as well, not overreacting to the week's performance. However, there is one matchup on tonight's college hoops slate that has seen consistent professional action already this morning.
Oddsmakers opened tonight's UIC-Green Bay matchup with a total of 146 and sharp bettors have not been shy about hammering this over. Our Bet Signals, which track key sharp money indicators across the sports-betting market, have already triggered two Steam Moves on this total, one at Over 147 and a second at Over 149.5.
Similar to Tuesday's edition of Wake and Rake, the line history for this matchup provides us with another key piece of information that will likely go unnoticed by casual bettors. Sharps steamed this total for the second time at 7:32 a.m. ET, and oddsmakers at Bookmaker.eu, a predominantly sharp shop, were so concerned about the onslaught of over money that they moved the number all the way up to 151, before determining it was safe to settle back in at 149.5, the current consensus across the market.
Oddsmakers have very little concern regarding public exposure for a smaller matchup like this, especially this early in the morning, and that move to 151 was basically daring sharp players to continue playing the over at that inflated price, which they didn't.
This game has already inspired one game of cat and mouse between sportsbooks and wiseguys this morning, and it'll be interesting to monitor whether there's even more over money waiting to pounce.
