Less than two weeks remain until the Atlantic 10 Tournament at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.
Dayton was the favorite to win the regular-season title before the season, but it sits behind a pair of surprising teams for first place despite an 11-3 league mark.
Richmond and Loyola Chicago each own 12-2 records as they battle for the top seed in the A-10 Tournament.
Let’s break down the remaining road for the contenders in the A-10 with four games left to play.
All odds are regular-season title odds via FanDuel as of Monday, Feb. 26.
Richmond Spiders (-180)
Richmond finished 7-11 in conference play last season but put together an amazing turnaround to lose only two games in 13 tries this season.
The Spiders have done it by limiting turnovers, where they lead the nation with a turnover rate of 12.3%.
Richmond began the season ranked 126th at KenPom, but Chris Mooney’s team has vaulted all the way up to 76th while reaching the 20-win mark for the first time since 2022.
The two losses suffered in A-10 play came by double digits to VCU and UMass, while it beat Loyola Chicago and Dayton by a combined seven points.
Richmond covered its first eight games in conference play has gone 3-3 against the spread in its last six games. Its only ATS loss in a victory in A-10 play came against Davidson this past Saturday.
Last Four Games: at Saint Louis, vs. VCU, vs. Saint Joseph’s, at George Mason
Loyola Chicago Ramblers (+340)
Plenty of credit goes to Richmond for its improvement, but nothing compares to Loyola Chicago. The Ramblers went from 4-14 in their first season in the Atlantic 10 to a nearly improbable 12-2 mark this season.
Loyola Chicago has covered 11 times in conference play, including seven straight games.
The Ramblers rank first in A-10 play in defensive efficiency while limiting conference opponents to 43.8% shooting on 2-point attempts, which is also the best in the league.
The only strike against the Ramblers is they own the worst strength of schedule in conference play among the 15 A-10 teams. Regarding the other three teams in the top four of the league, Loyola lost to Richmond and VCU and hasn’t faced Dayton yet.
The Ramblers are 6-0 against the bottom six teams in the league and finish the season at home against La Salle.
Last Four Games: at St. Bonaventure, vs. Dayton, at Davidson, vs. La Salle
Dayton Flyers (+380)
The opportunity to win the A-10 regular-season title isn’t out of reach yet for Dayton, which probably needs to beat Loyola Chicago and VCU down the stretch to have a chance at the top seed.
The Flyers will grind out opponents but allowed 44 second-half points in a 71-67 loss at George Mason on Feb. 21. All three of Dayton’s A-10 defeats have come on the road, but the Flyers are 7-0 at home with a 3-4 mark ATS.
Dayton has limited conference foes to 28.5% shooting from 3-point range and converts 53.7% of its 2-point attempts, which both rank first in the A-10.
Assuming Dayton can’t escape the third seed for the A-10 Tournament, its first opponent would be UMass, George Mason, St. Bonaventure or Saint Joseph’s. The Flyers posted a 1-3 ATS mark against those four teams but won three of those games with the largest margin of victory being 15 against St. Joe’s.
Last Four Games: vs. Davidson, at Loyola-Chicago, at Saint Louis, vs. VCU
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VCU Rams (+2200)
It’s been a whirlwind season for the defending A-10 champions, who replaced their head coach and several key members from last season.
The Rams are in an excellent position to finish in the top four of the league despite losing their first two conference games. VCU has won 10 of its past 12 games to move to 10-4 in the league, marking its fourth straight season with 10 or more A-10 victories.
One thing VCU has excelled at is winning close games. Six of its 10 conference wins came by seven points or less, including home victories over Richmond, Dayton and Loyola Chicago.
The Rams possess some odd shooting numbers in A-10 play.
VCU is the top 3-point shooting team at 38.8% and the best free-throw shooting squad at 80.3%. However, Ryan Odom’s club ranks dead last in 2-point shooting at 45% and was held below 41% shooting on 2-point tries in three of its four defeats.
The Rams have been solid on the road in league play at 5-2, but two large games at Richmond and Dayton remain as VCU looks to move into the top three for the A-10 Tournament.
Last Four Games: vs. Rhode Island, at Richmond, vs. Duquesne, at Dayton
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
The race for the fifth seed in the conference tournament will be interesting coming down the stretch. St. Bonaventure and UMass are tied at 8-7 with three games remaining.
The Bonnies have been all over the place in A-10 play, starting with an impressive road win at VCU. However, St. Bonaventure has lost at Fordham, Duquesne twice and at La Salle, which has made it hard to solidify its spot in the fifth position.
The Bonnies helped themselves with a huge road win at UMass on Feb. 24, clinching the season series victory and tiebreaker over the Minutemen.
St. Bonaventure ranks 14th in the league in 2-point defense but shoots the 3-ball well (37.5%) and knocks down 76.2% of its free-throw attempts.
Last Three Games: vs. Loyola-Chicago, at George Washington, vs. Saint Louis
UMass Minutemen
Following a disappointing 6-12 conference record in Frank Martin’s first season as head coach, the Minutemen have improved with an 8-7 mark. Three of those losses also came by one point, and they lost by four at Dayton early in conference play.
The last two wins at Richmond and over VCU at home have been big, as the Minutemen held both teams to less than 60 points apiece.
The 3-point shooting needs work; UMass ranks last in conference play, hitting 30.1% of its tries from downtown. In the past four games, which includes those wins over Richmond and VCU, the Minutemen have shot 29-of-99 (29.2%) from deep.
The final three games are all very winnable against teams owning conference records of 5-9 or worse.
Last Three Games: at George Washington, at Davidson, vs. Fordham
George Mason Patriots
George Mason has been the streakiest team in A-10 play, as the Patriots have owned three multiple-game winning streaks. GMU also suffered through a pair of three-game cold stretches and is now coming off a 21-point beatdown at the hands of Loyola Chicago.
Tony Skinn’s team gets to the line often, averaging 23.1 points per game at the charity stripe in conference play, which is the most among Atlantic 10 teams.
The issue is the Patriots don’t shoot the 3-ball well, hitting 33.5% of their attempts. They had an extremely tough showing against VCU on Jan. 9, going 0-of-15 from beyond the arc in a 54-50 home loss
George Mason had covered four straight games in the underdog role before the blowout at Loyola Chicago, but the Patriots have struggled away from Fairfax. They've lost five of their last six road games, which isn't ideal heading into the postseason.
Last Four Games: at Fordham, vs. Duquesne, at Rhode Island, vs. Richmond
