14 of the 15 teams in the Atlantic 10 Conference have played seven league games so far, with UMass being the only squad to play eight contests.
There’s a surprise at the top, with the Richmond Spiders leading the way at 7-0. Meanwhile, seven teams are within a game of each other from fifth through 11th place.
The Dayton Flyers seem like a shoe-in to the NCAA tournament regardless if they win the A-10 Tournament for the automatic berth. It'll be interesting to see who that second team could be, assuming Dayton gets bounced in the conference tournament.
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Richmond Spiders
The top team in the Atlantic 10 all season has been the Dayton Flyers, and that's still the case, according to KenPom (ranked 25th).
However, Richmond handed Dayton its first conference loss on Saturday, as the Spiders moved to 7-0 in league play, which equals their A-10 win total from last season.
Chris Mooney’s team does one thing extremely well: It doesn't turn the ball over often. Richmond ranks first in the country in turnover percentage at 12.1%, and it hasn't committed more than 11 turnovers in any conference game so far.
The Spiders have covered the spread in all seven A-10 games, but what’s even more impressive is the lack of respect they’ve received from the oddsmakers.
Richmond has five outright wins in the underdog role, which includes beating Dayton as a home ‘dog and knocking off Loyola Chicago on the road.
The A-10 is one of the most unpredictable conferences in the country, but Richmond has set itself up nicely for potentially a top-two seed in the league tournament in March.
The Spiders should be able to win at least four of the next six games, which include road matchups at Fordham, George Washington and Rhode Island.
Richmond hosts La Salle and UMass during this stretch, but the one tough game comes against city rival and last season’s conference champion VCU on the road this Saturday.
Dayton Flyers
Dayton lost to Houston on November 19 before rolling off 13 straight wins prior to the loss to Richmond on Saturday. The Flyers won their first six A-10 games and didn’t allow an opponent to score more than 65 points.
Dayton’s defense wasn’t terrible against Richmond, as the Flyers allowed 69 points. However, Anthony Grant’s team scored 15 first-half points and shot 10-of-26 on 2-point attempts.
It’s not all doom and gloom for UD, but the upcoming schedule will be interesting. After hosting George Washington on Tuesday, the Flyers face St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph’s and VCU.
The early schedule has been a cakewalk, as the Flyers beat the four teams with the worst record in the A-10 (Duquesne, Davidson, La Salle and Saint Louis), along with Rhode Island, which has lost four straight, and UMass, which has been up and down throughout conference play.
The Flyers are 5-2 to the under in seven conference games and 14-4 to the under in the past 18 contests against Atlantic 10 opponents.
VCU Rams
There were plenty of changes within the VCU program after it won the A-10 championship last season. The Rams went 15-3 in conference play and defeated Dayton to grab the automatic berth to the NCAA tournament.
Head coach Mike Rhoades left for Penn State, along with several key players from last season’s squad. Ryan Odom came from Utah State, but he had some growing pains in non-conference play.
Following an 0-2 start in the A-10, the Rams have turned things around by winning five consecutive games.
Their two signature wins came against George Mason on the road and Loyola Chicago at home.
VCU has covered the spread in all five conference victories, and former Utah State standout Max Shulga leads the Rams in scoring at 14.7 points per game.
The Rams can either make a serious dent in the top of the standings over the next two weeks or fall back into the middle of the pack. VCU travels to St. Bonaventure on Tuesday before welcoming in rival Richmond on Saturday.
From a futures standpoint, VCU is listed at 14/1 to win the A-10 regular season title at FanDuel. The Rams play both Richmond and Dayton twice. If VCU can win three of those four games — which won’t be easy — that can get it over the hump to another conference crown.
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
The first season in the A-10 was a rough transition for Loyola Chicago, which won only four games and finished in last place. The Ramblers have already eclipsed that win total by starting 5-2, and they begin this week tied for third place in the league with VCU.
Loyola Chicago had its three-game winning streak snapped at VCU last Tuesday, as the Rams outscored the Ramblers by 10 points in the second half.
The Ramblers have excelled in the 2-point department in league play by owning the second-best percentage offensively (52.4%) and top percentage defensively (41.9%).
However, beyond the arc has been an issue for Loyola, which ranks 11th in conference play at 33.1% offensively, while allowing opponents to shoot 38.4% from 3-point range, which is 14th.
Four of Loyola’s five A-10 wins are by five points or fewer, which includes a last-second home victory over UMass. The Ramblers lost by two at home to Richmond and don’t face Dayton until March 1 at home.
The upcoming schedule isn’t a gauntlet by any stretch, as the Ramblers host Saint Louis and Davidson this week before traveling to George Mason and George Washington next week. Loyola can put itself in a position to finish fourth in the league when all is said and done.
George Mason Patriots
The Patriots made a positive turn in the A-10 last season, finishing 11-7 and placing fifth.
Head coach Kim English departed for Providence and former Patriots standout Tony Skinn took over. GMU is still in a good position to finish in the upper-half of the A-10, though.
George Mason has gone through a bit of a roller-coaster ride in Atlantic 10 play by starting 2-0 with blowout wins over La Salle and Saint Louis. It then immediately dropped three in a row. The Patriots shot 0-for-15 from 3-point range in a 54-50 home loss to VCU before trailing most of the way in a road defeat to Richmond.
The only questionable loss so far came at George Washington in mid-January, as the Patriots trailed by 18 points in the first half of a 75-62 defeat.
GMU rebounded with back-to-back home wins over St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island, although the Rams nearly pulled the road upset last Saturday by hitting 13 3-pointers.
The Patriots shot 15-of-35 (42.8%) from 3-point land in their first two A-10 games, but have converted 27-of-103 (26.2%) attempts from downtown in the past five contests.
GMU has been listed as an underdog only once in seven conference games. The Patriots have covered the spread once in the past five contests, while suffering three non-covers in the favorite role.
George Mason is 1-2 on the road in A-10 action, with two key away games coming up this week (Saint Joseph's, UMass).
Massachusetts Minutemen
UMass is already on a positive turn in conference play after compiling a 6-12 mark in Frank Martin’s first season as head coach.
In Martin’s second go-around in Amherst, the Minutemen are 4-4, which includes a pair of heartbreaking one-point losses in the final seconds to Loyola Chicago and Saint Joseph’s.
The Minutemen withstood the three-game absence of their second-leading scorer and leading rebounder Matt Cross to sit at .500 in conference play through eight matchups.
UMass has defeated three teams that own conference records of 2-5 or worse (Duquesne, La Salle, Saint Louis). It also gave up 89 points in a loss to Rhode Island, which is the coldest team in the league now.
The good news for UMass is all four wins have come in convincing fashion, each by double-digits and capped off by its first conference road victory at Saint Louis on Saturday.
Also, the Minutemen are 3-0 against the spread as an underdog, as they'll likely be road ‘dogs at St. Bonaventure on February 7 and at Richmond on February 14.
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St. Bonaventure Bonnies
St. Bonaventure started 7-4 in conference play last season before falling apart late by losing six of its final seven games. The Bonnies have gotten off to an uneven start in Atlantic 10 play this season (3-4), and the schedule doesn’t get easier.
The beginning of conference play was promising, with a solid victory at VCU thanks to a 12-of-22 3-point shooting performance.
However, questionable losses to La Salle as a 10-point home favorite and Duquesne — which was 0-5 in A-10 play — may come back to hurt St. Bonaventure when it comes to conference tournament seeding.
The Bonnies ended a two-game slide with a 91-72 rout of Saint Joseph’s last Friday night, but St. Bonaventure faces VCU at home on Tuesday, followed by a visit to Dayton on Friday.
In A-10 play, St. Bonaventure ranks first in free-throw shooting (79%) and third in 3-point shooting (37.7%). However, the Bonnies have been diced up inside by allowing opponents to convert on 52.7% of their 2-point attempts, which is 13th in the league.
Saint Joseph's Hawks
Saint Joseph’s hasn’t finished with a winning record in conference play since 2018, and the Hawks sit at 3-4 through seven games this season.
Last season, Billy Lange’s squad posted a 3-4 record early before finishing 8-10, which was actually a three-win improvement from the previous season.
So far this season, the Hawks began A-10 play 0-3 after blowing a 13-point second-half lead at Rhode Island and a 20-point first-half cushion at Saint Louis. Saint Joe’s also led Loyola Chicago by nine points in the second half of a 78-75 home defeat, so this Hawks squad isn’t far from being a top-four team in the conference.
Granted, they need to do a better job of closing games out, but they also rallied from a 13-point deficit to shock UMass at the buzzer. Their two other wins came against La Salle and Duquesne, who are each 2-5 in the league.
The Hawks are the third-best team in league play from an offensive efficiency standpoint, but they've been unreliable covering spreads in the favorite role (1-4 ATS).
We’ll see if Saint Joseph’s turns things around after the slow start, as it has a home contest against George Mason on Wednesday and a visit to La Salle on Saturday before hosting Dayton on February 6.
George Washington Revolutionaries
George Washington beefed up in non-conference play with an 11-2 mark. It also got off to a surprising 3-1 start in A-10 play.
The Revolutionaries are going backwards of late, though, dropping three in a row to fall to 3-4.
Chris Caputo’s team won four conference games in overtime last season, but that luck turned against it in a triple overtime defeat to Fordham in the A-10 opener.
The Revs bounced back with three straight wins, including an impressive road upset of VCU as 11-point underdogs and a home victory over George Mason.
George Washington has yielded over 80 points in three consecutive losses to UMass, Richmond and La Salle. The Revs are allowing opponents to shoot nearly 40% from 3-point range in conference play.
The slope gets even more slippery ahead, as GW travels to Dayton on Tuesday followed by home games against Rhode Island and Loyola Chicago.
Fordham Rams
Fordham was one of the big surprises in the conference last season, finishing tied for second place at 12-6. The Rams started 3-3 before winning nine of their last 12 games.
This season’s squad began 3-3, but it's coming off a loss at Duquesne to fall to 3-4.
Fordham has gone an unconventional route to its current 3-4 record, with all three wins coming on the road.
The Rams defeated George Washington, St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island away from the Bronx, while falling to Davidson, La Salle and Loyola Chicago at home.
Also, the Rams haven't won consecutive conference games, as they're 0-3 SU/ATS off a victory over an A-10 opponent.
The free-throw shooting has dropped off for Fordham in A-10 play. They shot nearly 74% in 2023, but that number has sunk to a league-worst 63.5%.
Fordham will have several opportunities as a home underdog in the next two weeks when it hosts Richmond, VCU and St. Bonaventure. The Rams lost to Richmond and VCU on the road last season, but they swept St. Bonaventure.
Rhode Island Rams
Rhode Island turned many heads early on in conference play thanks to a surprising 3-0 start. The Rams shocked Saint Joseph’s, Davidson and UMass with outright underdog wins, but URI is currently in a four-game funk.
Archie Miller’s team was handed a pair of blowout losses at St. Bonaventure and Dayton before dropping back-to-back close games versus Fordham and George Mason.
Rhode Island’s free-throw shooting numbers are the second-worst in conference play at 64.2%, but the Rams sit second in A-10 action from long distance, hitting 39.5% of their 3-point attempts.
If the Rams are going to turn things around, the time is now. URI’s next four games are against La Salle, Duquesne, George Washington and UMass.
URI owns the worst defensive numbers in league play, ranking 15th in Defensive Efficiency, 15th in 2-point percentage defense and 13th in 3-point percentage defense.
The over has cashed in six of seven conference games for the Rams, including a perfect 4-0 mark on the road.
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Duquesne Dukes
Duquesne won one conference game two seasons ago before turning around the ship to a 10-8 mark.
This season, the Dukes stumbled to an 0-5 start in the conference, but it has some momentum after winning the last two games.
Duquesne’s offense has taken a hit this season, ranking last in the Atlantic 10 in Offensive Efficiency and bottom four in 2-point, 3-point and free-throw percentage.
Two of the Dukes’ losses came by two points each to Richmond and Saint Joseph’s, but Duquesne is fresh off back-to-back home victories over St. Bonaventure and Fordham.
Duquesne is the only team in the league that's hit the under in each conference game. It's been listed as an underdog only once, as it covered in the close loss at Saint Joseph’s.
After a non-conference affair against an improved Chicago State team, the Dukes head to Rhode Island and host Davidson, which are two winnable games to get Duquesne in the middle of the A-10 pack.
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Davidson Wildcats
Davidson won the Atlantic 10 regular season title in 2022, which was also the final campaign of legendary coach Bob McKillop’s career. His son, Matt took over the Wildcats’ program last season, and they're struggling to match the success of Bob.
The Wildcats were a middle-of-the-road team last season at 8-10. They've started 2-5 this season in the Atlantic 10, including two overtime losses to George Washington and Richmond.
Similar to Fordham, Davidson has seen more success on the road as opposed to at home. The Wildcats' two conference wins have come on the road — at Fordham and Saint Louis.
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La Salle Explorers
La Salle was by far the most inconsistent team in the Atlantic 10 last season, owning a pair of five-game losing streaks in between a five-game winning streak.
The Explorers have already suffered through a four-game slide this season in conference play, while owning road wins over Fordham and George Washington.
La Salle has been a low-scoring team in A-10 action by cashing the under in six of seven opportunities, while scoring 65 or less five times.
Interestingly enough, in the five losses, the Explorers' offense has struggled. In the two wins, the Explorers posted 81 and 80 points.
The Explorers have yet to cover the spread in any of their five conference losses and haven't been favored in A-10 play. That may change when La Salle hosts Saint Louis on February 7.
Saint Louis Billikens
It’s odd seeing Saint Louis so far down on the list, but the Billikens are the only team in the league with just one conference win.
In that lone victory over Saint Joseph’s, the Billikens erased an early 39-19 deficit, as they scored 55 second-half points in an 88-85 triumph.
The Billikens are coming off a pair of double-digit home losses to Davidson and UMass, and their best performance came in a defeat at Dayton.
After traveling to Loyola Chicago on Tuesday, the Billikens face Fordham and La Salle, two somewhat toss-up games for them.
The defense definitely needs to improve, as the Billikens have allowed 79 points or more six times in league play.
