The opening round of the NCAA Tournament features several massive favorites this year, with Auburn (-32.5), Houston (-28.5) and Florida (-28.5) all expected to dominate in the Round of 64.
In addition, if Duke’s line comes in at -28 or higher against American or Mount St. Mary's, 2025 would mark the first tournament ever with four teams favored by 28 or more points in the opening round.
Historically, we’ve seen a handful of teams enter the tournament with huge point spreads but never to this extent in a single year. The biggest Round of 64 lines since 2005 includes these four games.
Highest NCAA Tournament Lines Since 2005
- -34.5, Kentucky vs. Hampton (2015)
- -33, Gonzaga vs. Norfolk State (2021)
- -32.5, Auburn vs. Alabama State (2025)
- -31.5, UCLA vs. Mississippi Valley State (2008)
From Auburn��s perspective, this is rare territory. Since the seeding era began in 1979, only 16 teams have closed as -31 or higher in the NCAA Tournament. Those teams are 16-0 SU and 9-7 ATS, with every game coming in the Round of 64.
Underdogs in this situation haven’t just lost — they’ve never come within 13 points of their heavily favored opponents, losing by an average of 34 points per game.
Being a massive first-round favorite doesn’t necessarily predict tournament success, but it does show some potential. Of the 16 teams favored by 31-plus points, nine advanced to the Final Four, while three suffered a surprising exit in the Round of 32.
This season, Auburn has closed as a favorite of 30 or more just twice, beating Georgia State and Monmouth by 41 and 29 points, respectively. Georgia State ranks 263rd in KenPom, Monmouth is 267th and Alabama State is 275th.
