Auburn vs Alabama Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 161.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 161.5 -115o / -105u | -165 |
The Iron Bowl! Most people think about this matchup in a football context, but the basketball edition is pretty entertaining in its own right. The 16-2 Auburn Tigers face the 12-6 Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa.
Auburn Tigers
Auburn is one of the hottest teams in college hoops. For the last month, KenPom tabbed Auburn as a top-10 team in the sport. The rankings followed suit this week and Auburn finally received a top-10 ranking next to its name.
The Tigers haven't lost since December 2 against Appalachian State and have won 11 straight contests by double digits.
Bruce Pearl's squad is one of the best defensive teams in America. The Tigers sit sixth nationally in Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
Auburn's frontline suffocates teams inside, limiting opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 43% and 29% on 2s. Plus, the guards love generating pressure and forcing turnovers. That should be the game plan against the rival Tide.
While Alabama needs the guards to score, Auburn needs the bigs to score. Johni Broome is averaging over 15 points and eight rebounds per game. He's also a dominant post-defender, which adds immense value.
The second portion of the forward duo is Jaylin Williams, the team's second-leading scorer with 12 points per contest.
Pearl should get a steady diet of touches to his bigs, who face the inconsistent frontcourt of Alabama. That's the major matchup advantage here.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama grades out as the top offensive team in America. The Tide rank first in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, according to KenPom. That, paired with the sport's fourth-best effective field goal percentage, makes for a dominant unit.
It's a little surprising since the Tide started the season at 6-5, with three straight losses against top-shelf squads like Purdue, Arizona and Creighton.
Since then, Alabama has won six consecutive games, including a road victory over Mississippi State. Saturday's loss against Tennessee ended Alabama's lengthy winning streak, but the six-game surge proved one thing: Alabama is legit.
Head coach Nate Oats has really led the charge on the modern-day offensive philosophy in college hoops. Most of the Tide's shots come from 3 instead of attempting mid-range jumpers. He's just an incredibly sharp offensive mind.
Oats relies heavily on guards Aaron Estrada and Mark Sears. Sears is putting in a solid bid for SEC Player of the Year honors — the highly skilled guard is posting over 20 points on 53% shooting and 46% from 3.
On the other hand, Estrada is very important to relieve some stress from Sears. He's averaging 13 points on solid efficiency.
Lastly, I'm concerned about Alabama's propensity to turn the ball over against the stout Auburn defense. The Tide turn the ball 18% of the time, ranking right in the middle of the pack nationally.
Sometimes when you play super fast, turnovers will occur. It just can't happen too often against a team of Auburn's caliber.
Auburn vs. Alabama
Betting Pick & Prediction
This handicap comes down to two aspects.
First, the overwhelming perimeter shooting from Bama could wear down the elite opposing defense.
Secondly, Alabama is at home in a rivalry game. That's worth more than 2.5 points; I'd give three points of home-court advantage to the fans in Coleman Coliseum.
If this is a track meet, Alabama fits that style much better than Auburn. I think that's what this game will turn into.
Pick: Alabama -2.5 (Play to -3)
