The Auburn Tigers take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Alabama is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 172.5 points.
Here are my Auburn vs. Alabama predictions and college basketball picks for February 15, 2025.
Auburn vs Alabama Prediction
My Pick: Over 170.5 (Play to 176)
My Auburn vs Alabama best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Auburn vs Alabama Odds, Lines
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 172.5 -110 / -110 | +115 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 172.5 -110 / -110 | -135 |
- Auburn vs Alabama spread: Alabama -2
- Auburn vs Alabama over/under: 172.5 points
- Auburn vs Alabama moneyline: Alabama -135, Auburn +115
- Auburn vs Alabama best bet: Over 170.5 (Play to 176)
My Auburn vs Alabama NCAAB Betting Preview
Auburn Basketball
Auburn has the fewest losses in the country against the toughest schedule in the country. How’s that for a summary on how great this team is?
The Tigers took one on the chin to Florida last Saturday, trailing by as many as 21 in the second half. They bounced back on the road at Vanderbilt during the week, but the defensive flaws that Florida exposed are worth monitoring against Alabama’s elite attack.
The Tigers surrendered 1.22 points per possession to the Gators, getting punked in the paint by the Gators’ younger frontcourt. Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh combined for 33 points and 19 rebounds on 10-of-14 shooting from inside the arc.
Auburn’s big men — Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell — have to provide more resistance, and Cardwell must avoid foul trouble for the Tigers to be their best selves.
Broome is also still searching for the National Player of the Year form he was in prior to his mid-January ankle injury. Since returning, he's just 38-of-85 (44.2%) on 2-pointers, a far cry from his 61.2% success rate prior to the sprain.
It's not just a strength of schedule thing, either: In 10 pre-injury games against power conference competition, he hit a 58.2% clip on 2s. Auburn needs vintage Broome to return soon.
Fortunately, the supporting cast has been outstanding all season, helping Auburn build the nation’s most efficient offense.
Denver Jones, Chad Baker-Mazara and diaper dandy Tahaad Pettiford have all had banner seasons as scorers and creators. Miles Kelly has also been a consistent perimeter threat, burying 40.5% from deep to provide outstanding spacing.
Chaney Johnson’s recent emergence has made Auburn even more lethal. The former Division II transfer has parlayed his mind-boggling bounce into terrific finishing at the bucket. In his past three games, Johnson is 18-of-22 from inside the arc, averaging 15.3 points per game over that span.
He’s a deadly cutter and offensive rebounder, cleaning things up when defenses send too much attention at Auburn’s other threats.
The Tigers’ varied offensive structure has confounded opponents all year. For greater depth on the X’s-and-O‘s, I highly recommend reading this deep dive from The Athletic’s Brendan Marks.
Alabama Basketball
The Tide are indeed rolling right now, having won 15 of their last 16 games to ascend closer to where optimists pegged them in preseason projections.
Last year’s devastating offense has carried over into 2024-25, and Alabama is coming off arguably its best offensive performance of the season (1.43 points per possession on the road at Texas).
In fact, that performance was historic: Per Jared Berson, they're the only Division I team to score 100 points on 60% shooting from the field, 55% from 3-point range and 90% from the free throw line in the last 15 seasons.
The Crimson Tide fully realized Nate Oats’ vision in that game. All of their points came in the paint or from beyond the arc, as visualized by CBB Analytics:
A maniacal focus on getting shots at the rim or from 3 has long been Oats’ mission. This season is no different; per Shot Quality, Alabama ranks 15th nationally in Rim & 3 Rate, with 91% of its field goal attempts coming in that range.
Clearly, it's working.
Alabama’s last five games have been particularly impressive, and a starting lineup tweak may have sparked it. Oats inserted Chris Youngblood, a mega-efficient scoring wing, into the starting group over slumping freshman Labaron Philon.
That put the ball in All-American guard Mark Sears’ hands even more often, and the offense has taken off to even greater heights.
Add in the stellar play of sixth man Aden Holloway – who will surely be motivated against Auburn, his former school – and the Tide’s backcourt is looking like one of the very best in the country.
The defense is also better than last season, though perhaps not as quite as good as hoped. Clifford Omoruyi has given the Tide the rim protecting, glass-eating interior presence it needed, but Alabama struggles to get stops when he sits.
Per Hoop Explorer, opponents shoot a putrid 49.4% at the rim when Omoruyi plays. When he sits, though, that rises to 57.0%, indicating his immense value as a deterrent at the tin.
Auburn vs. Alabama Betting Analysis
Rather large stakes in those one, hey? We have the top two teams in the AP Poll – and arguably the two best NCAA Tournament resumes in the country – squaring off.
Oh, and it’s a massive in-state rivalry featuring plenty of bad blood.
It also includes a player (Alabama’s Holloway) that transferred from one school to the other.
Add all of that to the sky-high total (KenPom’s top two offenses in the country), and this one is sure to provide fireworks in every way possible. The atmosphere in Coleman Coliseum will be beyond electric.
The historical matchups between Oats and Bruce Pearl show an incredibly evenly matched rivalry. The two have split the last six meetings, though Pearl has a narrow 4-2 edge against the spread.
Four of those six games have gone over, as well, with an average total point tally of 166 points. Last year’s two meetings had 77 and 75 possessions.
Considering Alabama ranks second nationally in KenPom’s adjusted tempo, it’s easy to envision this becoming an up-and-down affair. Add in the fact that these are the top two offenses in the country by many analytic sites (KenPom, Bart Torvik, EvanMiya), and this could also be an efficiency bonanza.
Notably, Alabama is the fastest team Auburn has faced this season and the only one within the top 15 of adjusted tempo. Auburn’s most comparable foe, UNC, ranks 20th in adjusted tempo. That game had 74 possessions.
Omoruyi’s interior defense could be an issue for the over, but he might get played off the court by Auburn’s speed and Broome’s perimeter game. If the teams play extended minutes with Omoruyi (Alabama) and Cardwell (Auburn) off the court, this one will really open up.
Given that both teams have deadly perimeter attacks, this could be a “first to 100” affair. This is obviously a sky-high total and comes in a game with immense stakes (No. 1 nationally, inside track to SEC regular season title, etc.), but I resolutely expect an explosion of points.
I would bet this over up to 176.
