The Auburn Tigers take on the Texas A&M Aggies in College Station, Texas. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Auburn is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here are my Auburn vs. Texas A&M predictions and college basketball picks for March 4, 2025.
Auburn vs Texas A&M Prediction
My Pick: Texas A&M +5.5 (Play to +5)
My Auburn vs Texas A&M best bet is on the Aggies spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Auburn vs Texas A&M Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 149.5 -105 / -115 | -245 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 149.5 -105 / -115 | +200 |
- Auburn vs Texas A&M spread: Auburn -5.5
- Auburn vs Texas A&M over/under: 149.5 points
- Auburn vs Texas A&M moneyline Auburn -245, Texas A&M +200
- Auburn vs Texas A&M best bet: Texas A&M +5.5 (Play to +5)
Spread
I like the Aggies on the spread down to +5.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Texas A&M +5.5 (Play to +5)
Auburn vs Texas A&M College Basketball Betting Preview
What? I'm not backing Auburn? Yes, that's accurate. The No. 1-ranked team in college hoops could be in danger on the final Tuesday of the regular season.
I'm targeting a key angle here: Auburn is fresh off already clinching the SEC regular season title.
Maybe that means nothing to Auburn in terms of waking up and being ready for a game a couple of days later, but this affair is rather meaningless for it, especially ahead of the SEC Tournament.
Secondly, Texas A&M needs a win. The Aggies dropped four straight games entering this one and it's a good spot to buy low on a feisty team.
Texas A&M's defense has betrayed it lately, allowing 1.07 points per possession or more in each of its four straight losses. That's a nightmare for a Texas A&M squad that sits at No. 8 in defensive efficiency.
So, what's changed? All four opponents shot 36% or better from 3 and three of the four connected on 40%.
The Aggies' defensive style features some pressure in hopes of forcing turnovers, which shows in their 20% turnover rate. However, trying to force turnovers can be to their detriment, as opponents can find good looks versus a scrambling defense.
I don't think the sudden shooting surge will last, though. Texas A&M's defense isn't elite by accident. Shooting can ebb and flow, so I think A&M will bounce back here.
Speaking of ebbs and flows, does any player in America exemplify ebbs and flows more than Wade Taylor IV? He's the SEC's Caleb Love. Taylor is 27-of-88 (30%) from the field in his past eight contests and 15-of-54 (27%) from 3.
He simply has to be better if the Aggies want to make a run in March.
Moreover, scoring from Taylor's backcourt mate — Zhuric Phelps — would help, too. Both are shooting very poorly, and they attempt the vast majority of Texas A&M's shots.
I can see the Aggies exploiting the dominant Tigers in a few areas.
Texas A&M is Houston-esque with its play style. The key is crashing the offensive glass, as A&M leads the nation with a 41% offensive rebounding rate.
In contrast, Auburn is a middle-of-the-pack rebounding team, ranking outside the top 130 in defensive rebounding rate.
Plus, the Aggies use their interior length and Taylor's crafty scoring to live at the foul line. They rank 23rd in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric, while Auburn ranks 316th in the same metric defensively.
Auburn is so good offensively, so stopping it from putting up big numbers is easier said than done. The Tigers have the most efficient offense in America — the key ingredients to the dominant offense are a pristine 14% turnover rate while shooting 37% from deep and 56% from 2.
It isn't easy to score inside on Texas A&M with all its big bodies that are capable of battling National Player of the Year frontrunner Johni Broome. But so much of Broome's work comes from the perimeter as a playmaker/driver and improved shooter.
This handicap likely will depend on whether Auburn shoots it well from deep. If this game mirrors recent Texas A&M games, it'll be an uphill battle for the Aggies to cover. But I could see some shooting regression coming for a top-10 defense in America.
