The Baylor Bears take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames, IA. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on CBS.
Iowa State is favored by 8 points on the spread with a moneyline of -380. The total is set at 152 points.
Here are my Baylor vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks for January 4, 2025.
Baylor vs Iowa State Prediction
My Pick: Iowa State -8.5 (Play to -10)
My Baylor vs Iowa State best bet is on the Cyclones spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Baylor vs Iowa State Odds, Lines
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 152 -110 / -110 | +300 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 152 -110 / -110 | -380 |
- Baylor vs Iowa State spread: Iowa State -8
- Baylor vs Iowa State over/under: 152 points
- Baylor vs Iowa State moneyline: Iowa State -380, Baylor +300
- Baylor vs Iowa State best bet: Iowa State -9 (Play to -10)
My Baylor vs Iowa State NCAAB Betting Preview
The best path to Baylor covering is slowing the game down. Playing in a transition track meet spells disaster, especially with Hilton Magic on the Cyclones' side.
While Iowa State has some stud guards, so does Baylor. The emergence of freshman phenom Robert Wright III — with veterans Jayden Nunn, Jeremy Roach and Langston Love — gives the Bears a dynamic perimeter shooting attack.
All four of those players can shoot 40% from 3, but the defensive fit is a bit murky.
The key to unlocking even more offensive upside is another freshman, VJ Edgecombe.
A former top-10 recruit, Edgecombe has dealt with an up-and-down freshman year, shooting 42% from the field and 30% from 3. He scored 19 points in Baylor's dominant win over Utah, which could be a springboard for the future.
The main thing boding in Baylor's favor is its ability to control the ball. Teams love fumbling the ball away versus the Cyclones' suffocating pressure, but Baylor's abundance of ball-handlers leads to a 14% turnover rate.
However, that doesn't guarantee a cover — or even a competitive game — as Iowa State beat an elite Marquette team — which also seldom gives the ball away — by 11.
Defense remains a concern for the Bears, as they rank 62nd in defensive efficiency. They haven't ranked better than 62nd in any of the past three seasons, and Gonzaga tearing up the Bears on opening night forced Scott Drew to experiment with a zone.
Drew has messed around with man and zone, but he seems to be back to focusing on man-to-man principles.
The Cyclones are one last-second tip-in bucket by Johni Broome from being 12-0 and ranked No. 1 in America. Since then, the Cyclones won seven consecutive games by double-digits, including an impressive win over Marquette in Ames.
Iowa State has the best backcourt in America — full stop. The trio of Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones combines for 42 points per game.
The best part is all three are a bit different. Gilbert is the best driving guard in America, putting constant pressure on the defense. Lipsey can drive and shoot, but his best skill is defending on the ball and setting up scorers.
Finally, Jones is college basketball's version of Lou Williams, coming off the bench while nearly leading the team in scoring with 16 points per game. He also has limitless range from downtown.
You also have to factor in the scoring from Milan Momcilovic and forwards Dishon Jackson and Joshua Jefferson. It's no stunner why Iowa State is the third-ranked offense in America, per KenPom.
There are so many options to contain — defenses can focus on the drive or try going zone to limit the drives. If teams go zone on Iowa State — something Baylor may choose to do — that allows Momcilovic to operate in the middle of the 2-3 and dish to shooters.
Iowa State isn't the best defensive team in the country — like it was last year — but forcing turnovers is very much ingrained in the Clones' DNA (22% of possessions).
The one thing I noticed is when Iowa State needs to rely on defense — like against Marquette and Iowa in the second half — it stepped up.
Maybe that'll happen again while facing an explosive offense.
Baylor vs. Iowa State Betting Analysis
This just spells a terrible matchup for Baylor. The best part of Baylor's roster is its guards, and Iowa State has a better backcourt.
I also don't like any version of Baylor's potential lineup construction versus the Cyclones. The Bears start veteran forward Norchad Omier — who leads the team in scoring — with 6-foot-10 Josh Ojianwuna at the five.
That lineup is limited on shooting and perimeter defense, as it can get exposed in pick-and-rolls — plus, neither big can shoot.
The other option is going small, which is a disaster waiting to happen against two stud bigs in Jackson and Jefferson.
I see an Iowa State rout coming here with Hilton Magic to help.
