The Baylor Bears take on the Connecticut Huskies in Storrs, CT. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
UConn is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 145 points.
Here’s my Baylor vs. UConn predictions and college basketball picks for December 4, 2024.
Baylor vs UConn Odds, Spread, Pick
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 145 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 145 -110o / -110u | -150 |
- Baylor vs UConn spread: UConn -3
- Baylor vs UConn over/under: 145 points
- Baylor vs UConn moneyline: UConn -150, Baylor +125
- Baylor vs UConn best bet: UConn -2.5 or Better
My Baylor vs UConn College Basketball Betting Preview
Baylor Basketball
Baylor's start has been strong despite a poor showing against the Tennesee Volunteers. The Bears are loaded with talent, but the Big 12 is no picnic.
Scott Drew's club enters the matchup with the Huskies 8th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They have five players averaging over 11 PPG, led by lead scorer Norchad Omeir, who transferred from Miami.
There are better situational spots for the Bears, as we all know how ticked off Hurley's Huskies are heading into the matchup. Given the circumstances, I'd be overly surprised if we saw a flat effort from the Huskies, so the Bears must show up.
They are shooting 38% from deep, but the Huskies do not allow many attempts outside the arc. The Huskies have been one of the worst teams in the country against the triple on the defensive side, but favorable fortune is coming their way.
Baylor also doesn't often get to the charity stripe, and even when it does, it shoots 71% as a team. The Huskies have fouled a lot on defense, a significant component of their defensive issues.
Normally, I'd give the Bears the edge on the offensive glass, but the Huskies have been a strong defensive rebounding team. The Bears have also struggled on the defensive glass, which could be a huge reason they fall short in the contest.
With shooting regression looming for the Bears, it's tough to back them in such a problematic situation.
UConn Basketball
Big news broke earlier today that Forward Alex Karaban will not play on Wednesday night, which is significant, to say the least. Karaban is the heart and soul of the Huskies, so he will be missed.
What is wrong with the Huskies? Well, many are pointing fingers at their poor defensive performances.
Unsurprisingly, their defense has regressed with Tristan Newton, Stephon Castle, and Donovan Clingan's departures. Still, their talent on paper suggests they should be much more defensive-minded.
Earlier, I alluded to the fact that the Huskies have allowed the 13th fewest three-point attempts in the country, yet opponents are shooting a robust 37%. Their perimeter defense may not be as poor as many suggest.
Their over-aggressiveness has also come back to haunt them, as they are one of the most foul-heavy teams in the country. However, they are third in the country in blocks per game, and opponents are shooting 40% inside the arc.
The backcourt has also been a big mystery. They have yet to gel early on in the season, as St. Mary's transfer Guard Aidan Mahaney is off to a slow start.
However, Guard Solo Ball has been a highlight reel thus far, shooting 46% from deep. The Huskies will need someone to step up in the absence of Karaban, and they will look no further than Ball.
Karaban is a big loss on the defensive side, so I am hesitant to gauge if they get better on that side of the ball. But I think the metrics are working in their favor here, and we should see better results moving forward.
Baylor vs. UConn Betting Analysis
Even without Karaban, I love the Huskies at home. It's been a nightmare week and a half for the Huskies, and now is their time to get right at home.
They should control the glass for most of the game, and I trust them to make their free throws late in the game. It's also a bad spot for the Bears, coming from a cream-puff game against New Orleans.
I love Drew as a coach, but their lack of depth also concerns me. I expect a valiant effort from the Huskies at home, and I'd be extremely surprised if they didn't respond after their performance in Maui.
