What a weird weekend of betting. XFL, MMA, Oscars — the holy trinity, as it's often colloquially referred to in betting circles. Well, we are back to the workweek and it's time to bet on some more normal things, such as college basketball.
There's nothing casual bettors love more than betting on a nationally-televised game. Nothing. It's much tougher to sweat a game when you can't watch it. Duh.
Sharps are quite aware of this, too, which allows them to take advantage of value that might not be there if the game was only being aired on your local community channel that would otherwise be showing a town meeting.
Odds as of Monday at 12 p.m. ET and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
No. 1 Baylor vs. Texas Sharp Betting Pick
9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Nationally televised and a No. 1 ranked team? Um, yes please, says the casual bettor.
Not surprisingly, the top team in the nation, Baylor, is seeing 80% of the bets. The Bears opened at -6.5 and clearly the public was not afraid to lay that amount of points. Quite frankly, Baylor would probably still be seeing the majority of spread bets if oddsmakers set the line at -10.
You probably could have guessed this, but sharp bettors are not a part of the 80% on Baylor. Texas may not be ranked, or even particularly good (4-6 in conference play), but the Longhorns are good enough to warrant reverse line movement.
We've tracked two Reverse Line Moves on Texas — both at +6.5 — that have caused the line to move to +6 across the market. A select few are even down to +5.5.
Historically, teams getting less than 25% vs. a Top-25 conference opponent have covered 54.5% of the time per Bet Labs in nearly a 1000-game sample since 2005. That bumps up to an insane 62.6% when only looking at Top-3 opponents, though the sample size falls to 126 games.
However, it includes a game from one week ago that bettors will certainly recall …
Baylor goes 16-29 (55%) from the free throw line on the night.
MaCio Teague misses 2 free throws with 6 seconds left in the game for Baylor (-7). 😯
Baylor wins the game by 6 points. ❌ pic.twitter.com/dC9iQ2Vwuu
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) February 4, 2020
Will Baylor-faders score another contrarian cash tonight?
