The Belmont Bruins take on the Drake Bulldogs in Des Moines, IA. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Drake is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. The total is set at 141.5 points.
Here are my Belmont vs. Drake predictions and college basketball picks for December 29, 2024.
Belmont vs Drake Prediction
My Pick: Belmont +9 (Play to +8)
My Belmont vs Drake best bet is on the Bruins spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Belmont vs Drake Odds, Spread
| Belmont Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 141.5 -108 / -112 | +325 |
| Drake Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 141.5 -108 / -112 | -425 |
- Belmont vs Drake spread: Drake -8.5
- Belmont vs Drake over/under: 141.5 points
- Belmont vs Drake moneyline: Drake -425, Belmont +325
- Belmont vs Drake best bet: Belmont +9 (Play to +8)
My Belmont vs Drake College Basketball Betting Preview
Belmont Basketball
The angry NIL monster swooped in to steal the Bruins' three studs — Cade Tyson, Malik Dia and Ja’Kobi Gillespie.
You couldn’t find a more polar opposite team stylistically from Drake. The Bulldogs want to grind everything while Belmont wants to run-and-gun, defense be damned.
Belmont wants to deploy a fast tempo (18th in adjusted tempo), and it wants to shoot a ton of 3s, attempting them at a 44% clip while hitting on 37.5% of them.
The blueprint is pretty simple: let point guard Carter Whitt operate the offense and surround him with a plethora of shooters like Tyler Lundblade (50%), Jonathan Pierre (38%), Brody Peebles (31%) and Sam Orme (36%).
Whitt has been a terrific replacement for Gillespie, as he's averaging 12.4 points, five assists and 4.3 rebounds per game.
However, Belmont has one of the worst defenses in America, as opponents shoot a jarring 37% from 3 (339th nationally) and 53.5% from 2 (249th nationally). The Bruins rank No. 244 in defensive efficiency, which will probably need to change in this matchup if they have a chance to add a loss to Drake's resume.
Belmont's loss to UC Irvine probably feels like a missed opportunity. The Bruins led by double digits but were defeated by eight. The difference was 7-footer Bent Leuchten, who absolutely carved up Belmont’s interior.
The good news in this game is Drake doesn’t have the size advantage on the interior, so it’ll likely be a heavy dose of Bennett Stirtz.
Drake Basketball
The clear darling of the college basketball season is the Drake Bulldogs, who had to replace head coach Darian DeVries and star forward Tucker DeVries, among 11 other departed scholarship players.
New head coach Ben McCollum has the Bulldogs at 11-0, with three high-major wins in hand entering league play.
McCollum brought four players with him from Northwest Missouri State to Drake — Stirtz, Mitch Mascari, Daniel Abreu and Isaiah Jackson.
If a team with 11 new players looks familiar with one another, it’s because they are.
Drake wants to slow the game down, play disruptive defense and operate the offense until the best possible shot opens up.
One of the McCollum veterans — Stirtz — is among the best point guards in America, as he's posting 17.5 points, 5.9 assists and 4.2 rebounds with pristine pick-and-roll play. The 6-foot-4 guard is shooting just 30% from 3, but he’s a reliable shooter if Drake needs one.
The shooter on the team is Mascari, who masquerades as this year's Jack Gohlke. Mascari has attempted just nine 2-point shots all year and is 37-of-75 (49%) from downtown.
McCollum will need a dazzling performance from both Stirtz and Mascari to win this game.
Defense is certainly the calling card of the Bulldogs, as they rank No. 60 nationally in defensive efficiency with an impressive 22% turnover rate.
You’d expect a smaller team in stature — starting center Cam Manyawu is just 6-foot-8 — to struggle on the glass, but the guards rebound to make up for the lack of interior size.
Drake allows offensive rebounds on just 24% of its possessions. Conversely, it collects offensive rebounds on 37% of its misses. That means the glass battle tends to favor Drake.
I feel like we've reached the absolute pinnacle of Drake’s value. The Bulldogs will endure some losses in league play, which surely will drop them in the metrics and in turn, that will drop their betting market value.
Going from No. 133 in KenPom to start the year to No. 77 at this current moment is a pretty big leap.
Plus, given the Bulldogs' deliberate tempo, that’ll likely lead to close games in league play. Teams that play the third-slowest tempo in America typically don’t blow out opponents — unless they have an otherworldly shooting game.
However, that’s not the Bulldogs strength. They shoot 33% from 3 (182nd in 3-point percentage) compared to 57% from 2 (39th nationally).
Belmont vs. Drake Betting Analysis
Is Drake the better team? Yes, no doubt. But Drake isn’t the most talented or most athletic team in the country.
We aren’t looking at a team that's on par with Indiana State from last season talent-wise.
Is this year's Drake team potentially better? The jury is still out on that. What I will say is due to Drake’s pace and defensive DNA, it’s as well-equipped to win tightly contested games as any other team at the mid-major level.
I don’t expect a blowout here because Belmont is very good. I'm taking the points.
