The Big South regular season title was decided on Wednesday. High Point’s harrowing overtime victory against Winthrop gave the Panthers a two-game lead with one to play, cementing an incredible first season under Alan Huss.
Unsurprisingly, the Panthers are the favorite to win the Big South Tournament (listed at -105 at FanDuel). They get to host the event in their shiny new arena, after all.
HPU is by no means a lock to secure the league’s auto-bid to the NCAA tournament, however. That very same Winthrop squad lurks in the semifinals. And the only team to actually win at High Point was USC Upstate – which could be HPU’s quarterfinal opponent.
The ultimate threat to HPU’s crowning achievement, though, is UNC Asheville. The league’s preseason favorite, Asheville has the conference’s best player in Drew Pember and played HPU to a stalemate this season.
Quite literally: in two meetings, the two squads each scraped out a home victory, with the aggregate score being a symmetric 165 to 165.
So, let's dive in deeper to a team that could make waves on North Carolina betting apps in March.
What Makes UNC Asheville a Spoiler?
Having a superstar like Pember gains importance in a single elimination tournament. Coach Mike Morrell won't have to worry about saving his big man for the grind of a long league schedule; if the Bulldogs lose, the season ends.
And frequently, having the best player on the court is the difference in a close elimination game.
Asheville is also helped by having won this event last year. The Bulldogs returned four starters and two other key cogs from that squad, only losing incendiary scoring guard Tajion Jones to graduation. That championship experience should provide a boost in any close games.
From an X-and-O perspective, Morrell does a terrific job simply unleashing Pember and allowing him to use his immense skill set. At 6-foot-10, Pember is equally comfortable bombing from distance (made three-plus 3s in nine games this year), slashing off the bounce (good luck to opposing bigs) and scoring against size inside.
His interplay with point guard Caleb Burgess — a tremendous passer — is tough to stop:
The Bulldogs’ attack is aided by having two pinpoint snipers lurking on the wings. Fletcher Abee and Josh Banks are both hovering right around 40% from beyond the arc this year, meaning their defenders have to think long and hard about leaving them to help.
Banks, in particular, can erupt; he made nine 3s in the first half against Sun Belt powerhouse Appalachian State on Dec. 21.
Between Pember and the two gunners, opponents also have no prayer at zoning the Bulldogs.
Pember’s passing optimizes the two shooters. He sees constant double-teams, and he's gotten better every year at punishing overhelping defenses with his vision.
Their presences are particularly helpful against High Point, which places a high priority on taking away triples. That means the floor should be open for Pember, as help defenders may stay attached to their charges. That creates a tenuous offensive balance for Asheville, though.
Indeed, in Asheville’s loss to High Point this year, Pember went nuts: 36 points, eight rebounds. The Panthers were content to let him explode while limiting Abee, Banks, Burgess and Nick McMullen, who combined for 31 points.
Morrell’s challenging task in a theoretical rubber match will be to continue using Pember’s gravity to create opportunities for others. In the return victory at Asheville, those four non-Pember starters doubled their production: 62 combined points.
One other interesting wrinkle for Morrell: finding the right lineups. He recently inserted Toyaz Solomon into the first five over McMullen, giving the frontcourt a bouncier look.
The slender Solomon is not the two-way rebounder that McMullen is, but he's a better shot-blocker. Against High Point’s all-out rim assault, Solomon might actually be the more appropriate piece.
Overall Evaluation
Like Big South Tournament favorite High Point, UNC Asheville can fill it up in a hurry. Pember plus a terrific backcourt trident give the Bulldogs a chance every single night.
What could allow Asheville to be the spoiler to the Panthers’ Cinderella story, though, is its defense. Ranked as the top unit in the conference during league play, Morrell’s squad effectively used its size and length to lead the league in block rate and effective field goal percentage defense (per KenPom).
A final betting-related note: this Asheville core has struggled mightily to play up against power-conference competition. In the last two years, these Bulldogs have been a double-digit dog five times. The results are ugly:
That’s 0-5 ATS with an average cover margin of -11.9 points per game.
So yes, Asheville can certainly make a run through the Big South Tournament and return to the Big Dance. If it does, Pember’s presence will likely make it an attractive underdog bet.
Don't be fooled, though: he's not as much of a matchup problem against elite competition, and that has bled through to Asheville’s overall performance for two years running.
