The Big 12 was the strongest conference in college basketball last season, and this year, it looks like it's headed for another fantastic season. KenPom currently rates the Big 12 as the toughest conference in the sport.
The league is headed into a new era, though, as expansion has begun with Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF all joining for their first season in the league. Those four teams all hold winning records as we near the end of non-conference play, and two of them look like national contenders.
While the new additions will make for an exciting season to watch, the mainstays in the Big 12 aren't going anywhere.
Bill Self re-loaded his Kansas program through the transfer portal. Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears are off to a hot start. Even teams in the middle of the league are capable of beating anyone on any given night.
This league got seven teams into the NCAA tournament last season, and it may be even more this year. There isn’t one clear favorite, but instead, there are many teams that can compete on a national level.
Let’s take a closer look in our Big 12 betting guide with odds.
The Favorites
Houston Cougars (+260)
This may be a bit controversial to see the first name listed as a program that's new to the Big 12, but it shouldn't be. Houston has been the top-ranked team on KenPom for much of December, and it's one of the only undefeated teams remaining in the sport.
The Cougars own the best defense in college hoops, anchored by toughness and physicality. Jamal Shead is a pest in the backcourt and makes life miserable on opposing guards of all skillsets. Inside, this team is even better, as it owns the top-ranked block percentage in the country.
Baylor transfer LJ Cryer has emerged as a premier scorer on the perimeter. It’s rare to see a star transfer go from one contender to another in the same conference, but that's what happened here. Kelvin Sampson will be glad to have Cryer on his side.
The big question is how Houston adapts to a tougher competition level as time goes on in conference play. The Cougs will need to be at their best for a longer period of time, as the teams in the American Conference are gone and are replaced by the best conference in the nation.
But there's not much doubt that — on paper — Houston is the best team in this league.
The odds reflect that, as Houston is a slight favorite compared to the next team on our list.
Kansas Jayhawks (+280)
The only program that would have a big problem with the above statement is the Kansas Jayhawks. Under Self, you never want to bet against this program heading into Big 12 play.
Kansas won this league each of the last two seasons, and Self, once again, has put together a loaded roster with stars all over the court.
The biggest name is Hunter Dickinson, who transferred to Lawrence from Michigan. Alongside Dickinson, Kevin McCullar Jr. has emerged as one of the best wing scorers in the sport. Add those two to Dajuan Harris Jr. and KJ Adams Jr., and Kansas has four players that can go toe-to-toe with any other team in the Big 12 and beyond.
Kansas may be a half-step behind Houston, however, because of a lack of depth. The Jayhawks rely on freshman shooting guard Elmarko Jackson as their fourth starter, and Jackson has been hit or miss. Nicolas Timberlake hasn't been nearly as good as expected when he transferred in from Towson either.
Without a solid fifth starter, it's hard to see Kansas winning this league.
But then again, Self finding ways to win would never surprise us. And there's no shortage of talent to work with.
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Next Up
Baylor Bears (+650)
The last team to win this league that wasn't Kansas would be Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears in 2021, when they went on to win the national title.
This year’s Baylor team has the offensive firepower to make another deep run, but there are defensive concerns to be worried about. A loaded backcourt — plus the best 3-point shooting percentage in the country — will give them a chance to win any game.
But giving up 88 points to Michigan State — which has really struggled offensively — may have been a red flag of things to come when Baylor faces the best offenses in the Big 12.
The Bears will still get a high seed come March, but they're less balanced than the two favorites. That ultimately pushes them down a tier.
BYU Cougars (+600)
BYU is the one other team that belongs with Baylor as a serious threat. The Cougars worked themselves all the way up to fifth in the country, according to KenPom, following an impressive 10-1 start through 11 games.
Profile-wise, this team is closer to the two teams above it, as it's great on both sides of the ball. The Cougars can score from anywhere and they shoot — and make — a ton of 3s.
Defensively, they're nearly elite as well, with a top-10 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
BYU, like Houston, will take some time to adjust to the draining nature of Big 12 play, but there's no question that it has the high-end talent to make things interesting.
It's a bit surprising to see the Cougars at +600 odds compared to Baylor’s +650, as the Bears have the higher upside to win this league.
Tournament Teams
Iowa State Cyclones (+1300)
Elite defense plus a fantastic point guard. That's the formula that T.J. Otzelberger is hoping can take his Cyclones team to the promised land this season.
Tamin Lipsey will be the best point guard on the floor in most games that he plays in. He's been sensational (holding a 33% Assist Rate to a 17% Turnover Rate), generally making everything easy for everyone around him.
Also, Milan Momcilovic has been one of the best freshmen in the sport. He can knock down a flurry of shots from outside in any given game.
Otzelberger oversees a stifling defense, which has become a staple of all his Iowa State teams after they finished in the top 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in back-to-back seasons. The Cyclones currently rank sixth in that category.
If there's one long shot to like, it's Iowa State.
Oklahoma Sooners (+1400)
It speaks to the quality of this league that we have yet to discuss the Oklahoma Sooners, who won their first 10 games to start the season.
Porter Moser is in the running for National Coach of the Year. The Sooners have a top-10 defense and an offense that finds ways to generate easy buckets at the rim.
The Sooners are great on the boards, they force turnovers and they're generally a pain for opposing offenses to play for 40 minutes.
We'll soon find out what Oklahoma is made of, as it hasn't beaten a top-40 team during its 10-0 start.
Texas Longhorns (+1500)
Rodney Terry’s Texas team has been one of the more volatile squads in this league through the first month and a half.
At their best, the Longhorns can beat anyone. The problem is they haven't been at their best against their biggest opponents, getting blown out by UConn and Marquette.
Texas doesn't own a top-100 win. The Longhorns need to prove themselves as Big 12 play wears on, but with Max Abmas running the show, it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see Texas emerge as one of the top four teams in this league.
TCU Horned Frogs (+1300)
Jamie Dixon has put together two consecutive quality seasons for TCU, and this year looks no different.
He has a talented trio to work with when it comes to Emanuel Miller, Micah Peavy and Jameer Nelson Jr. TCU won eight of its first nine games, and it constantly puts pressure on its opponents.
The Frogs play extremely fast, ranking 30th nationally in pace of play offensively. They'll win games in this league with their mix of talent and style of play that's hard to prepare for.
The Long Shots
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+2800)
In most leagues, Texas Tech would be a top-five caliber team. Not in the Big 12, though.
The Grant McCasland era is off to a fantastic start, but we're likely a year or two away from seeing “contender” status in Lubbock.
Don’t count out Pop Isaacs though. He's good enough to shoot Tech to a win on any given night, especially with how tough the Red Raiders’ defense is.
Cincinnati Bearcats (+4000)
Wes Miller enters Year 3 in Cincy off of two consecutive winning seasons. But his job got harder when Cincinnati entered the Big 12.
This team just doesn't have the high-end talent that the best teams in the league currently have.
The Bearcats won eight of their first 10 games, but they didn't beat a top-100 opponent in the process.
Kansas State Wildcats (+4000)
Jerome Tang will continue to be one of the hottest names on the coaching carousel, and whether or not he's happy in Manhattan is a fair question.
He landed Tylor Perry and Arthur Kaluma to replace last year’s superstar duo — Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson — that took the Wildcats all the way to the Elite Eight.
This year’s team won four overtime games in the first month of the season, and there will be plenty of close games coming in conference play.
Best Bets
Kansas Jayhawks (+280)
Any time you can get Bill Self at a better number than a conference opponent, you simply have to take it.
Kansas has question marks, but it also has better top-end talent than Houston.
With Dickinson and McCullar playing how they are, this is the best bet of the top tier of contenders.
Iowa State Cyclones (+1300)
If you're looking for something with longer odds, the best play at this point in the season is Iowa State.
The monstrous Cyclones defense is here to stay, Lipsey is incredible and most analytics sites have Iowa State within five spots of Kansas, despite significantly longer odds available at the sportsbooks.
I wouldn't recommend betting any of the teams at longer odds. There's too much talent in this league for one of the middle-of-the-pack programs to earn enough wins to emerge as champions.
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