Now that we're a month into Big 12 league play, we can admit that there have been plenty of surprises. One thing that's not a surprise: the sheer quantity of good basketball teams in this conference.
At the time of writing, seven of the 14 teams find themselves ranked in the AP Top 25. But it's not just loaded at the top, the conference is also filled with depth. 12 of the 14 teams in this league possess winning records.
Even the “worst” teams in the Big 12 are dangerous opponents, as West Virginia proved over the weekend by handing Kansas a loss in Morgantown.
While it's a surprise to see Texas Tech and Kansas State alone at the top of the league with matching 4-1 records, it's not a surprise that Kansas, Oklahoma, Houston, Baylor and Iowa State all find themselves just a game back of first place.
Conference newcomers Cincinnati, BYU and UCF all hold 2-3 records after their first month as Big 12 basketball programs, but there's reason for optimism for each squad.
Who wins this league is anyone’s guess, so let’s work our way through the standings and assess the value of each team from a futures perspective.
Teams Tied at Top
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+700)
Grant McCasland’s first year as head coach in Lubbock has gone better than anyone could've imagined.
Texas Tech finds itself tied for first place, holding wins over Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and BYU. The Red Raiders' lone loss came on the road at Houston.
Tech has a good offense and a solid defense, so there's some substance here, but they've benefitted from a friendly schedule to start conference play. The Red Raiders are still just 1-2 overall vs. KenPom top-30 opponents.
Seven of their final 13 games will come against teams of that caliber, so it would be a surprise if Texas Tech remained atop the conference for long.
My betting recommendation? Stay away from the +700 odds. Wait a bit longer and see if they stick around once the schedule heats up.
Kansas State Wildcats (+2000)
It's rare to get a team that's tied for first in their league at 20:1 odds, especially 25% of the way through the conference season.
With that said, it makes sense that Kansas State is still considered a sizable underdog to take home the Big 12 crown.
For starters, this has been one of the more fortunate teams in all of college basketball. The Wildcats hold a perfect 5-0 record in five games that went to overtime, including close wins over Oral Roberts and North Alabama.
They haven't exactly looked the part of a serious contender, even in their biggest wins this season. Jerome Tang is a great coach, but his roster has some serious limitations.
Kansas State struggles immensely on the offensive end, where it ranks just 129th nationally in Offensive Efficiency. The defense is better (23rd), but there are more elite defenses in the Big 12, and without the offense taking a large step forward, it's hard to take KSU seriously as a contender.
Much like Texas Tech, the Wildcats' schedule gets a lot harder quickly. Nine of their final 13 games come against KenPom top-30 opponents, and they've only played two teams of that caliber up to this point.
My strong recommendation would be to sell the Wildcats going forward in Big 12 play.
Five Teams Tied a Game Back in Loss Column
Houston Cougars (+160)
It took Houston a few weeks to adjust to Big 12 play, and it learned that life on the road may look a little different than it's used to.
Houston has dropped its only two conference road games, losing at Iowa State and TCU.
It won’t get much easier as the Cougars still have away trips to BYU, Texas, Kansas, Cincinnati, Baylor and Oklahoma.
This team is still the betting favorite though, and with the top-ranked defense in the country, it’s likely for good reason.
If not for the schedule, we would recommend now as a good time to buy Houston, but there are some other contenders with a better price at this point.
Kansas Jayhawks (+450)
Kansas is one of those contenders, although it offers its own set of serious concerns.
The lack of depth that I called out as a concern after the non-conference season still pains this team on a game-to-game basis. Johnny Furphy has been the only player outside of Kansas’ four veterans to emerge as a quality option.
Kansas dropped away games to two of the easier opponents on its schedule — UCF and West Virginia. If that's a sign of what's to come, it might make sense to stay away from betting Kansas to win the league this year.
With that said, the Jayhawks have the two best players — Hunter Dickinson, Kevin McCullar Jr. — on the floor every night in this league. It would be a shock if they aren’t heavily involved in deciding who wins the regular season title.
At +450 odds, it’s one to circle.
Baylor Bears (+700)
For the first month of the season, Baylor’s offense was ranked No. 1 in the nation in Offensive Efficiency. That's dipped a bit to the Bears' current ranking of sixth, but this is still a loaded offensive juggernaut.
They make 42% of their 3-point attempts as a team, and they remain undefeated at home on the season.
They lost back-to-back road games to Kansas State and Texas, but both matchups came down to the last shot and involved statistical oddities that won't occur much. Baylor shot just 17% from 3 in the Kansas State loss, and star point guard RayJ Dennis scored just two points against Texas.
If either of those outcomes were slightly different, Baylor likely would find itself at 4-1 right now.
At +700, Baylor to win the Big 12 is one of the best value bets you can make at this point in the season, as you're getting significantly more value than you are with similar caliber teams like Kansas and Houston.
Iowa State Cyclones (+800)
Iowa State remains flawless at home this year, holding onto an 11-0 record in Ames with a conference win over Houston as its crowning achievement thus far.
It's been a different story on the road, where the Clones lost to Oklahoma and BYU before picking up a shocking victory at TCU without star guard Tamin Lipsey.
Lipsey needs to get healthy, but the Cyclones are one of the tougher outs in this league on a night-to-night basis.
Their defense ranks third nationally, and on a night when they're making shots, they can beat anyone.
Oklahoma Sooners (+1300)
Porter Moser’s squad is another team that's been dominant at home, with an 11-0 record in Norman that matches Iowa State’s mark.
There are questions about whether Oklahoma will be able to hold up against the strongest opponents on its schedule, as it's just 1-3 on the season against top-25 teams. The Sooners suffered comfortable losses to North Carolina, TCU and Kansas.
Luckily for Oklahoma, it only has two road games left this season against top-25 teams, and it avoids going to Kansas, BYU and Houston.
Based on schedule luck, this could be one to circle if you believe in the Sooners.
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Long Shots Sitting at 2-3
BYU Cougars (+1500)
The metrics still love BYU, as the Cougars are ranked 10th on KenPom, despite a losing record through five games in Big 12 play.
When they win, they win big, and their 15-point home victory over Iowa State is nothing to take lightly.
The Cougars possess a top-20 offense and defense, and their schedule opens up after a game vs. Houston in Provo. Five of their next six games will come against teams outside the KenPom top 25.
Now might be the time to buy if you believe in BYU.
TCU Horned Frogs (+2500)
TCU has played a ton of competitive games, with four of its five conference games being decided by four points or less.
The problem? The Frogs lost three of them.
They took Kansas to the wire on the road and Cincinnati to overtime in Cincy before falling short in both games. TCU has a top-35 offense and defense in the country, and if the Horned Frogs can steal a few quality wins before it's too late in the season, they should be an NCAA tournament team.
Cincinnati Bearcats (+7000)
Cincy opened conference play with an extremely impressive 71-60 win at BYU, but it's dropped the ball since, losing twice at home to Texas and Oklahoma.
Although the Bearcats have a 2-3 record in conference play, the three losses have come by a combined eight points, so there's hope for some close game luck to turn in their favor soon.
Texas Longhorns (+10000)
The Rodney Terry era is … rocky to say the least right now. After getting hit with the "Horns Down" symbol after a home loss to UCF, Terry hit the podium to complain about the celebrations, calling the opponent “classless."
Texas has lost two of its three home games in conference play, adding an 11-point home loss to Texas Tech. The Horns' two wins in Big 12 play have come by three points combined.
This team is a long ways away from where Texas fans had hoped. Stay away.
UCF Knights (+20000)
UCF is playing with house money this season, as nobody expected much from Johnny Dawkins’ group during its first go around in the Big 12. He already stole a win at home against Kansas and made headlines in the aforementioned win (and celebration) at Texas.
The Knights might not do much else this year, and there's no value for bettors, but they've proven they're a team to be taken seriously.
That alone is a win.
West Virginia Mountaineers (+25000)
With the Bob Huggins era over, this program is very much in transition, and the losses are mounting.
A 7-11 record overall led to an 0-2 start in conference play, with blowout losses at the hands of Houston and Kansas State.
But just when you're about to forget about West Virginia, they beat Kansas and Texas at home and make you remember that it’s not easy to win in Morgantown.
Those victories may be few and far between, though.
Don’t Even Think About it
Oklahoma State Cowboys (+50000)
The only winless team through five games in the Big 12 is Oklahoma State, which honestly is not far behind UCF and West Virginia in terms of talent.
Stillwater is still a difficult place to play, as evidenced by an overtime loss to Baylor.
There’s no value in Oklahoma State’s futures, but there may be on a game-to-game basis if the Cowboys catch 7-10 points at home against some of the better teams in the Big 12.
