The Big 12 tournament begins on Tuesday and will finish with the championship game on Saturday. This league has been the most competitive conference in college basketball this season, and that should make for an exciting conclusion in the postseason tournament.
With the top nine seeds in this tournament all currently projected in the NCAA tournament field, this will be a good lookahead to the Big Dance.
Houston and Iowa State emerged as the best two teams in this conference, and the race for the regular season title came down to the final Saturday.
Ultimately, Houston cut down the nets and earned the top seed in the conference tournament. They're all but cemented as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament as well, so “rest for March” may be on the radar for the Coogs.
Iowa State lost to Kansas State in its final game of the year and ultimately finished in second place in the league. The Cyclones split with Houston during the year and could earn their own championship with a great run this week.
Kansas and Baylor are currently projected on the three-seed line at Bracket Matrix for the NCAA tournament, and they're likely headed for a matchup in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament.
With Kansas, Baylor and Iowa State all paired together on the same side of the bracket, it won't be easy for any of them to make a run. Not only is Houston the top seed, but it has the decidedly easier draw, and will only have to face one of those teams along the way (in the championship game if it gets there).
Outside of the top four teams, there are five other teams bound for the NCAA tournament that are currently projected between a No. 5 seed and No. 9 seed in March Madness. BYU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, TCU and Texas should all feel safely in the tournament field, but a few wins this week would go a long way for seeding purposes.
Outside of the nine teams that are headed to the NCAA tournament, there aren't any bubble squads. Kansas State and Cincinnati are likely the closest, but neither is within eight spots of the last team on Bracket Matrix entering the Big 12 tournament. Both teams will likely need two wins — at minimum — to enter the conversation.
2024 Big 12 Tournament Odds
| Team Name | Odds (Via BetMGM) |
| Houston | -165 |
| Iowa State | +400 |
| Baylor | +800 |
| BYU | +1000 |
| Kansas | +1400 |
| Texas Tech | +2000 |
| Texas | +2500 |
| TCU | +5000 |
| Oklahoma | +8000 |
| Cincinnati | +10000 |
| Kansas State | +10000 |
| UCF | +15000 |
| Oklahoma State | +20000 |
| West Virginia | +20000 |
2024 Big 12 Tournament Bracket
Big 12 Players to Watch
Jamal Shead (Houston)
The likely Big 12 Player of the Year is averaging 16 points, seven assists and 2.7 steals over Houston’s nine-game winning streak entering this tournament.
Curtis Jones (Iowa State)
Jones has been a pillar of stability on the wing for the Cyclones, scoring 10+ points in 14 consecutive games off the bench.
Hunter Dickinson (Kansas)
Injuries have plagued the Jayhawks all season long, and Dickinson is the latest victim to the injury bug. The Kansas star suffered a dislocated shoulder in their final game of the regular season, and his status this week is unknown.
Ja'Kobe Walter (Baylor)
Walter may just be the best freshman in all of college basketball, and Scott Drew is leaning into a huge role for Walter in the stretch run. He's played 37 or more minutes in five consecutive games and has made 15 of his last 37 3-point attempts in that span.
Max Abmas (Texas)
Abmas is no stranger to the spotlight in the postseason. The Oral Roberts transfer has been a star at Texas this year, and he'll need to be at his best if the Longhorns have plans to advance in this tournament. Abmas has two games with four made 3s in his last four contests.
Big 12 Trends to Watch
- Houston has won nine consecutive games entering the Big 12 tournament and is 3-0 on neutral floors this season.
- Since February 10, Texas has been the second-best team in the Big 12, ranking 12th nationally in that span, per Bart Torvik.
- Kansas has lost three of its last four games entering the tourney.
- Baylor has won three of its last four games.
- Texas is the defending Big 12 tournament champion.
Potential Big 12 Matchups to Keep an Eye On
Quarterfinals: No. 8 Seed TCU vs. No. 1 Seed Houston
TCU is the only team in the Big 12 that Houston hasn't beaten this season. TCU will need to take care of business against Oklahoma first, but the Horned Frogs beat the Sooners in the regular season.
Semifinals: No. 3 Seed Baylor vs. No. 2 Seed Iowa State
The one and only time these teams met this season was a thriller, as an Iowa State buzzer beater was ruled off upon review and Baylor escaped with a two-point victory. Given Kansas’ injury situations, it won't be a surprise to see another Iowa State vs. Baylor rematch in the semis.
Second Round: No. 10 Seed Kansas State vs. No. 7 Seed Texas
This matchup is locked in, and Kansas State will be desperate to keep its postseason hopes alive. They only met once this season, with Texas winning by six points in Austin. Kansas State’s 39th-ranked 3-point percentage defense squares off with Texas’ 38th-ranked 3-point percentage offense.
Big 12 Tournament Best Bets
Given the prices and the lopsided draw, it's hard to recommend Houston or Iowa State here. Houston will be a heavy favorite in every game up until the championship, but at -135, there's no value there, and I would advise looking elsewhere.
While Iowa State has been the second-best team in the league, at +280, it's a pass given how loaded the bottom half of the bracket is. A path of Texas and Baylor or Kansas just to get a chance at a third matchup with Houston in the championship is deathly.
So, here’s my favorite (and least favorite) bets:
Favorite Bet: Texas (+3000)
The Longhorns have been the second-best team in this league for the last month.
At 30:1 — and with Abmas in good form — this is great value.
Good Value: Baylor (+800), BYU (+1500)
At nearly three times the price of Iowa State, Baylor is a good bet here. Kansas has injury concerns and Baylor has a good shot at the semis.
BYU is also worth a shot, as it has the firepower to get hot from 3 and make a run. Also, the Cougars are on the easier side of the bracket until they potentially face Houston in the semis.
Worst Bet: Kansas (+1200)
I wouldn't touch the Jayhawks given Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr.'s injuries.
KU wants to get healthy for the NCAA tournament and they have a horrible draw in this event.
