The Big 12 Tournament kicks off in Kansas City on Tuesday, the first time we’ll see a 16-team field in one of the best basketball conferences in America.
The top four seeds — Houston, Texas Tech, Arizona and BYU (!) — earned byes to the quarterfinals. The next four seeds — Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor and West Virginia — get byes to the second round, and the bottom eight are forced to win five games in five days.
Let's dive into our Big 12 Tournament picks and college basketball predictions for the 2025 edition of the tourney.
2025 Big 12 Tournament Odds & Bracket
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Houston | -120 |
| Texas Tech | +425 |
| Iowa State | +700 |
| Arizona | +850 |
| BYU | +1100 |
| Kansas | +1300 |
| Baylor | +5000 |
| West Virginia | +7500 |
| Kansas State | +20000 |
| Cincinnati | +20000 |
| Utah | +25000 |
| UCF | +25000 |
| TCU | +25000 |
| Oklahoma State | +30000 |
| Arizona State | +30000 |
| Colorado | +50000 |
The OFFICIAL 2025 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Championship bracket. pic.twitter.com/X61MfbE7VJ
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) March 9, 2025
Big 12 Tournament Favorite
Houston is the odds-on favorite (and at least one book has them at even money) after going 19-1 in league play and winning the conference by four games.
A dominant defense leads the way, but this year’s Cougars can also shoot the lights out, leading the Big 12 in 3-point percentage this season.
That combination is deadly, and Houston’s physicality has successfully worn opponents down over the course of 40 minutes in almost every game.
There might be an idea floated around by the media leading into the tourney that perhaps Houston would prefer to lose and rest up for the NCAA Tournament given its extensive March injury history, but that’s simply not how head coach Kelvin Sampson rolls.
He will have his guys going balls to the wall all tournament because that’s the only way he knows how to do things.
Big 12 Tournament Contenders
Texas Tech was the only team to beat Houston during the Big 12 season, and it almost did it twice despite being shorthanded in both games.
The Red Raiders are scary when firing on all cylinders and have vaulted all the way up to No. 7 in KenPom.
Led by All-American JT Toppin, an incendiary and experienced offense and a fantastic coach in Grant McCasland, TTU is a real threat to cut down the nets. At 4-1 or better at most books, this is one of the best bets on the board.
Arizona came alive in conference play after a disappointing start to the year, but the Wildcats are just 3-7 over their last 10 games. Their guard play makes them a highly volatile squad in a tournament setting — Caleb Love giveth and Caleb Love taketh away.
The 'Cats have size, playmaking and a strong coach in Tommy Lloyd. They took down Texas Tech once already this year, but can we count on their backcourt consistency? Either way, +850 is a tempting bet.
BYU is the 4-seed, but the Cougars are slotted behind 5-seed Iowa State in futures markets. Winners of eight straight with an elite 3-point offense and a pro in Egor Demin, there’s a lot to like about BYU.
Unfortunately for the Cougars, they'll need to go through Iowa State and Houston to get to the title game. They did control ISU in Ames before squeaking by in double OT, but Houston beat them by 31 back in early January. Look elsewhere in the market.
Iowa State can be bought for around 8-1 in the market, a better bet than BYU despite needing to win an extra game. The Clones have been a tad shaky down the stretch, but they’re still a top-10 squad with an elite defense and one of the best leaders in the country in Tamin Lipsey.
The concern with ISU is Keshon Gilbert’s status. The Clones need him to make a run, but the circumstances around his absences are unclear.
Big 12 Tournament Dark Horse
Believe it or not, Kansas is the 6-seed in the Big 12 Tournament — the second straight year Bill Self has been in this spot after dominating the league for what felt like an eternity.
KU can be found at 13-1 in the market, a very intriguing proposition for three reasons:
- This tournament is in its backyard in Kansas City.
- It has a top-five coach in the country in Self.
- It has an All-American in Hunter Dickinson.
KU needs to beat Arizona in the quarters, something it just did at the Phog on Saturday. Then it would square off against Texas Tech, a team it suffered a home loss to on March 1.
Kansas is the most experienced team in the country and the preseason No. 1 team. A deep run in the Big 12 Tournament would not come as a surprise.
Looking elsewhere in this tournament is asking for the books to take your money and never give it back.
Baylor has a ton of talent, but the Bears’ lack of depth — especially up front — is a problem for them trying to win four games in four days. A number like 50-1 is certainly attempting — especially if you’re just looking for some hedge opportunities — but getting past Texas Tech and then Arizona or Kansas the following day seems highly unlikely.
Big 12 Tournament Best Bets
Texas Tech at 4-1 or better is the best bet on the board. The Red Raiders have all the ingredients of a champion.
Houston’s odds are just too short, and Iowa State is a tough potential matchup in the semis.
If you’re looking for longer odds, you could do worse than Kansas at 13-1 or 12-1. The Jayhawks have the experience, coaching and talent combination, on top of the tourney being located in KC.
