Providence vs Creighton Pick & Prediction
| Providence Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
| Creighton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -370 |
The Providence Friars are fighting for their NCAA tournament lives as they take on the Creighton Blue Jays in the Big East Tournament Quarterfinals tonight.
Per Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, the Friars are in the "Next Four Out" as of Thursday morning. The stakes cannot be higher, and it will take a great effort to defeat the high-flying Bluejays offense.
Providence Friars
The Friars took care of business against Ed Cooley's Hoyas last night 74-56. They shot 12-32 from deep and will need a similar performance to get past the Jays.
The offense has thrived because of guard Devin Carter, as he has arguably been the best offensive player in the Big East. Carter is the type of player who can put a team on his back, but his supporting cast needs to do its part.
The Friars split their season series with the Jays after recently defeating them at The Dunk in overtime. They scored 91 points in the contest, which fits the mold of how to outduel the high-powered Jays.
To beat the Jays, the Friars need to shoot well from 3-point land, but they are 211th in 3PT% (33%).
However, the Jays are an excellent team defending the perimeter. The Friars have gone through plenty of offensive struggles throughout the season, especially without forward Bryce Hopkins.
Consequently, the Friars need to win the game on the defensive end. They are an elite defensive team as they enter the contest 17th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
The Friars are nearly flawless on defense, but they have been exposed mightily from the 3-point line. They are 202nd in opposing 3PT%, but they are 74th in 3-pointers allowed per game. Kim English's team is fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives, so I expect an all-out effort from the Friars.
Creighton Bluejays
The Jays are undoubtedly the second-best team in the Big East, especially since Marquette is without star guard Tyler Kolek for the time being.
With big man Ryan Kalkbrenner down low, the trio of Bluejays guards makes them nearly impossible to stop. Trey Alexander is playing like an All-American, and Baylor Scheierman and Steven Ashworth are having terrific offensive seasons.
Scheierman is the do-it-all guard for the Jays and is one of the best rebounding guards in the country. This backcourt makes it extremely difficult for any opponent to contain them, hence why they are among the top 25 in both Adjusted Defensive and Offensive Efficiency.
The Jays offense has a tough test against the Friars, but they've proven in both matchups that their talent is too strong to overmatch. Although the Friars are due for better results from their perimeter defense, the Jays should take care of business in that area.
Despite the Friars offense struggling throughout the season, the Jays' inability to force turnovers is a legitimate concern. They are among the worst teams in the country in forcing turnovers.
If the game is played at a slower pace, the Jays have the advantage. Their perimeter defense is among the nation's best, and they are the best team in the country in preventing trips to the foul line.
The Friars will be forced off the perimeter and will get challenged inside by Kalkbrenner. The Jays should not have any issues moving on if their offense shows up.
Providence vs Creighton
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a massive game for the Friars, and I think English's team puts forth their best effort of the season. The Jays are the more talented and complete basketball team, but the spread is way too high.
Carter has the ability to carry the Friars offensively, and he is talented enough to crack the stingy Jays defense. Although I have doubts that the Friars can win the game outright due to the matchup, there is no question that they can hang tough late.
For perspective, the Friars were 2.5-point underdogs at home in the last matchup. KenPom makes the spread Creighton -7, which I still think is too high.
If the Friars struggle offensively, it could get ugly in a hurry. However, I have faith that they show up on the big stage, and I'll happily take the 8.5 points.
