The Big Ten is shaping up to have a vastly competitive conference schedule this winter. Purdue is the clear frontrunner, but after losing in Evanston, Illinois, to Northwestern, the Wildcats showcased the blueprint to take down the viable national title contenders.
However, at this current juncture, there are a couple of teams that make sense from a futures perspective.
Outside of Purdue, the Big Ten doesn’t have many national title contenders, but regardless, this season could produce some surprises.
Big Ten Title Contenders
Purdue Boilermakers (+125)
Purdue has the most dominant player in the country in Zach Edey.
EDEY AND ONE!! đź’Ş @zach_edey x @hofseries x @Boilerballpic.twitter.com/uJ5xY35r3q
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) December 9, 2023
The Boilermakers have taken down four top-10 KenPom teams: Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama and Arizona. Without a doubt, they have the best resume in the country, despite losing at Northwestern.
The Boilermakers rank second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. This is more well-rounded than last year’s squad, which as everyone knows, lost to Fairleigh Dickinson in the NCAA tournament as a one-seed.
Purdue shoots 40.3% from deep and 54.6% from inside the arc. It also has the 18th-highest free-throw attempt rate in the country (driven mostly by Edey).
This team’s success will depend on its guards, though. In the loss to Northwestern, Edey played well (35 points, 14 rebounds), but the Boilermakers had 17 turnovers, six of which came from Braden Smith.
This was exactly Purdue’s problem last year, and it could pose an issue again this year come March. The cliché in college basketball is that you can’t win without strong guards. Well, when this team’s guards — like Smith — struggle, the Boilers suddenly shift from the top dog to a very beatable club.
This team has still taken down everyone else besides a fine Northwestern team, which can force turnovers. The Boilermakers very well could be the top overall seed in the Big Dance.
Illinois Fighting Illini (+800)
Illinois is another team to watch in Big Ten play, as it’s finished tied for fourth place or better from 2020-2023.
Brad Underwood may have some questionable results in the NCAA tournament, but he’s done a phenomenal job in Big Ten play. This is why I bet the Illini at +1100 in the preseason at FanDuel.
As much as the hype train was behind Michigan State heading into the season, there really wasn’t a definitive second-best team in the Big Ten. After beating FAU rather handily, Illinois might’ve carved that spot out for itself.
The Illini have been a fantastic rebounding team, ranking 46th offensively and 40th defensively. This is where they’ve had a leg up on much of their competition. This is a key stat and area to follow, especially when they play Purdue on January 5.
The game is on the road, so the Boilermakers will likely win, but Coleman Hawkins is the key in this type of game. He’s one of the best interior defenders in the country, which is why many view him as an NBA draft pick.
He could lock down Edey, and the Illini have the guards to defend Foster Loyer, Smith and company.
This is pre-Colgate, but this is something to note:
Illinois defensive heat map in quad 1 games
Left:
Coleman Hawkins on the floor
Opponent is
47/99 48% 2p
13/43 30% 3pRight:
Coleman Hawkins off the floor
Opponent is
18/29 62% 2p
7/15 47% 3pVia https://t.co/6XLco8gpyUpic.twitter.com/Jlx3rUwreD
— Hoop Informatics (@HoopInformatics) December 14, 2023
The Illini have one of the best players in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr., but their issues the last two seasons have revolved around 3-point shooting and turnovers.
Why? Well, they’ve had a relatively position-less team with limited experience at point guard. It hurts when you don’t have someone to consistently bring the ball up the court, and that’s contributed to Illinois’ 17.9% offensive turnover rate.
However, if the Illini limit their mistakes, this team could win the conference.
Wisconsin Badgers (+1200)
Wisconsin ranks 16th in Adjusted Efficiency, per KenPom (13th offensively, 36th defensively). Wisconsin has lost three games already, but they were to Tennessee, Providence and Arizona — all three could be dancing.
Wisconsin is another team that can contend with Purdue in the size and rebounding department. The Badgers rank 65th in offensive rebounding and ninth on defense. Honestly, this category helped them trounce both Virginia and Marquette.
If they can do the same to Purdue, the Big Ten season will have a different outlook.
The Badgers also take care of the ball, ranking 64th in offensive turnover rate while turning over opponents the 79th-most in the country. This is an edge over both Purdue and Illinois, and it could help push them to victory against these two — and other Big Ten opponents, at least at home.
The Badgers also shoot well from the free-throw line. In crunch time, their experience comes into play.
The Badgers only shoot 51.7% from inside the arc and 33.3% from deep, so they’re not the most efficient team. This is their hindrance to a Big Ten title, but the addition of AJ Storr has been paramount to their early-season success.
OOP IT TO STORR! ‼️ @storr_aj x @BadgerMBBpic.twitter.com/dSRPHiU4Gl
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) December 2, 2023
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Long Shot Big Ten Title Contenders
Ohio State Buckeyes (+1600)
Ohio State is looking like the bounce-back candidate of the year in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes have losses to Penn State and Texas A&M, but they own wins over Alabama and UCLA.
The Buckeyes have been great on the offensive end under Chris Holtmann, but they've been so-so defensively. This is, again, the story of this season.
They’re shooting 38.2% from deep and 52% from 2, which has resulted in KenPom’s 18th-ranked offense. They rank 54th defensively, and their detriment has been allowed 3s and defensive rebounding. Opponents are shooting 33.2% from outside the arc on the Buckeyes. OSU also ranks 182nd in defensive rebounding.
These could be a couple of issues to be cognizant of with other Big Ten teams owning a lot of height.
Since they only have one marquee win thus far, pulling the trigger on them to win the Big Ten may be a little ambitious.
Indiana Hoosiers (+2500)
Indiana is the only Big Ten team with two conference wins. Its only losses are to UConn, Auburn and Kansas. Against Kansas, the Hoosiers were winning much of the game before blowing it down the stretch.
The Hoosiers are more of a long-shot than the others because their impressive start may not last.
That said, they’re balanced, ranking 91st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 70th defensively.
Their issue on offense has been hitting 3s. The Hoosiers would be pretty solid all around if not for this glaring problem. They’re shooting a collective 28.5% from 3-point land, while hitting 55.1% of 2s and getting to the free-throw line at the eighth-most successful rate in the country.
Defensively, the Hoosiers allow a 3-point attempt rate of 40.4%, and other teams are shooting over 34% on them.
The Hoosiers’ rebounding rate is nothing to write home about, either.
Xavier Johnson being hurt hasn’t helped, but they’ve played moderately well without him.
Northwestern Wildcats (+3000)
Had Northwestern not dropped a game at home against Chicago State, it would be the talk of the Big Ten right now. The Wildcats have top-40 KenPom wins over Dayton and Purdue, but that loss to Chicago State could sting them.
This may be the ideal time to buy low on the Wildcats, though. For one, they usually (outside of Chicago State, obviously) don’t shoot their own foot off. They rank fifth in offensive turnover rate and 17th in defensive turnover rate.
They may not be the most talented team in the Big Ten, but Chris Collins is looking for the Wildcats’ second consecutive tournament berth for the first time in school history for a reason.
As with any team, they have weaknesses. The Wildcats can’t rebound. They rank 233rd offensively and 237th defensively in this category.
They depend heavily on Boo Buie, Ryan Langborg and Ty Berry to make shots consistently. Yes, all three are solid competitors, but their depth in the frontcourt is limited.
That said, strength and experience in the backcourt can get a team far, and Buie and company have shown they can rise to the occasion.
Other Potential Longer Shots
Michigan State (+1600)
MSU had some lofty expectations coming into the season, thanks to a comparable roster to 2022-2023. Yes, Sparty had a great recruiting class, but shooting from deep and rebounding are glaring problems right now.
They rank ninth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, but this number is far too short to bank on a team with a 5-5 record at the end of December.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (+4000)
Nebraska is another team that has to be mentioned because it’s 9-2. The Huskers had double-digit losses to Creighton and Minnesota, but they have wins over MSU and Kansas State.
However, the strength of their schedule needs to be considered in the futures market.
They’ve beaten MSU, but that’s about it. They could make the NCAA tournament, but again, this team likely won’t be atop the conference standings in March.
Big Ten Betting Report Conclusion
Yes, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Rutgers and Minnesota are a few other teams, but none of them have shown enough at this stage to factor into the Big Ten title picture.
Maryland plays too much isolation basketball.
Iowa’s defense is horrid, and so is Michigan’s.
Rutgers’ offense is the worst in the conference.
Minnesota has taken down only Nebraska and bad teams.
As I said, the season is still young, so these are the best upcoming games that could impact this conference heavily in the next few weeks:
- Illinois hosts Northwestern on January 2
- Purdue hosts Illinois on January 5
- Northwestern hosts MSU on January 7
- Wisconsin hosts OSU on January 10
- Illinois hosts MSU on January 11
If you’re looking to place wagers at this current moment to win the Big Ten regular-season title, Illinois at +800 or better is worth a look, as is Northwestern at +3000 or better in a buy-low spot.
Pick: Illinois +800 or Better | Northwestern +3000 or Better
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