Since the last Big Ten State of the Conference I wrote, Wisconsin has fallen off of a cliff, Purdue dropped a game at Ohio State and Illinois is still within striking distance of Purdue for the regular season crown.
Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan State have the metrics to be potential title/Final Four contenders, but considering the Big Ten’s recent failures to advance in the NCAA tournament, being skeptical may be wise.
Purdue Boilermakers
-2000 to Win Big Ten
Purdue is the heavy favorite to win the conference title for a reason. It has the best numbers of any team in Big Ten, and it should — at least — share the title.
The Boilermakers have displayed their vulnerabilities. For example, they rank eighth in offensive turnover rate in Big Ten play. In their losses, turnovers have been a serious problem for the Boilermakers.
Zach Edey held six of these turnovers against Ohio State, and overall, the Boilers lost the turnover battle 14-6.
Against Nebraska, Purdue lost the turnover battle 14-9.
Against Northwestern in December, Purdue lost the turnover battle 17-3.
This becomes an issue quickly because the Boilermakers only turn opponents over 14% of the time (338th in the NCAA).
Zed Key had Edey in absolute HELL pic.twitter.com/DpTbQDrjEj
— Brodie (@BrodieKnowsBall) February 19, 2024
Purdue is clearly a top-five team in the country, but an opponent could use this to their advantage in the postseason, similar to Fairleigh Dickinson last year.
Illinois Fighting Illini
+2200 to Win Big Ten
Illinois is the only team that probably has a shot at sharing the title with Purdue — or winning outright — as the Illini have a 10-4 record in the league.
They haven't been turning it over as frequently as Illini fans have been accustomed to. In Big Ten play, Illinois ranks in the top-three in offensive turnover rate.
However, the Illini have struggled when it comes to guarding the 3-point line. Opponents in Big Ten play are hitting over 35% from deep on Illinois. This was a problem against Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan State in the last month.
Brad Underwood emphasizes taking away an opponent’s chance at an outside shot, which is why Illinois ranks in the top 10 in defensive 3-point attempt rate. But the 3-point defensive issues reared its ugly head when Terrence Shannon Jr. was just getting back into game shape from his suspension.
Bear in mind that Illinois is shooting 35.7% from outside as a team in Big Ten play, so the Illini can hold their own when it comes down to it.
Wisconsin Badgers
+7500 to Win Big Ten
Wisconsin may be one of the biggest stories in Big Ten play. The Badgers have lost five of six in February.
When I wrote the January update, the best odds for Wisconsin to win the Big Ten title were +450.
Now the Badgers are close to panic mode.
No one really expected the Badgers to win the conference, but they have a series of Quad 1 wins, which is why the committee ranked the Badgers inside the early NCAA tournament top-16 projections on Saturday. This has since dissipated because they lost at Iowa in overtime Saturday afternoon.
The issue with the Badgers has also been allowed 3s and the defensive end of the floor overall. They rank 247th in effective field goal percentage defensively, allowing opponents to shoot over 36% from outside. In Big Ten play, this is up to 38.2%.
The Badgers still have a solid team, and the addition of AJ Storr has clearly helped. They can make some noise in March, but first, they need to prove they can limit 3s and get back on track.
Michigan State Spartans
+25000 to Win Big Ten
Michigan State finds itself on the right side of the bubble and slots in as a seven-seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology.
Mounting a comeback at home to pull off a win against Illinois could pay serious dividends.
Let me get this out there: Michigan State is decent. Sparty has a solid defense, can force turnovers and has some shooters who could get hot in March.
However, this team ranks amongst the highest in frequency of mid-range shots. The Spartans are hitting over 36% from deep, so why not take a few steps back?
Rebounding has also been a constant concern for the Spartans. This has hurt, particularly on the offensive end, as they rank 11th in offensive rebounding. These mid-range misses could be inflicting pain on the offensive glass, too.
Given that this team is a bit outdated when it comes to shot selection, it's hard to be high on the Spartans, but they have good offensive and defensive metrics.
It helps to have an experienced backcourt and a player like Tyson Walker, but they must iron out these offensive stylistic issues if they want to have serious success in March.
Northwestern Wildcats
+100000 to Win Big Ten
Northwestern should still make the tournament, but the biggest question mark for it is: Where's Ty Berry’s production going to come from? Berry has a torn meniscus and will be out for the season. He was also Northwestern’s best 3-point shooter.
Ryan Langborg put up 26 in Sunday’s game and played a full 40 minutes against Indiana.
PTS: 26
AST: 6
TO: 0Ryan Langborg is just the fourth @bigten player with 25+ points, 5+ assists & 0 turnovers in a conference road game in the last 10 seasons. 😈#B1Gstats x @NUMensBballpic.twitter.com/cGKSj7M2v1
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) February 19, 2024
Boo Buie very well could be an All-American, however, this team’s bench was already short without Berry.
Nick Martinelli will be a nice supplemental piece in the starting lineup because he can rebound, but he can't shoot as well as Berry.
Justin Mullins gave the Cats eight points against Rutgers after Langborg’s ejection, so he could be a major boost off the bench.
Matthew Nicholson actually played his part as an offensive threat on Sunday against Indiana.
Buie is one of the players I mentioned in the “5 College Basketball Guards Who Can Become March Madness Heroes," but even he needs someone to help him out.
Northwestern is a team to keep an eye on in the next few games. The Wildcats play everyone close, but as long as their team is healthy (obviously beyond Berry), they can win a game or two in March.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
+200000 to Win Big Ten
Nebraska is the last Big Ten team currently in the NCAA tournament. The Cornhuskers' win over Purdue is paying dividends, but they need to notch a couple more to cement themselves in the field of 68.
The Huskers are a threat to virtually anyone because they shoot a ton of 3s and can get hot at a moment’s notice.
Their issue has been defending the arc and crashing the glass. The Cornhuskers rank below 190th in both offensive and defensive rebounding.
The nice thing is the Huskers have a relatively easy stretch coming up schedule-wise. Every team they play ranks below 60th in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, so if they win a couple more, they're on cruise control to Selection Sunday.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Big Ten likely doesn't have another bid outside of these six, but Minnesota has a shot.
Ben Johnson has done a phenomenal job with this team, considering the Gophers were 9-22 last year. They could shock everyone if they can notch one more massive win (i.e. at Nebraska, at Illinois or at Northwestern).
I would be remiss if I didn't mention Minnesota having a 21-3 ATS record. Clearly the market hasn't caught up to the Gophers, so be weary of fading them.
