The Big Ten Conference has had plenty of news swirling in the last month.
Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr. was suspended and reinstated since the last Big Ten update.
Purdue lost another game.
Wisconsin continues to play well.
And the rest of the conference is pretty much a toss-up.
Most bracketologists have six or seven Big Ten teams landing in the 68-team NCAA tournament field, which seems about right considering this conference’s refusal to show up when it matters most.
Also, KenPom has the conference — as a whole — ranked fourth in efficiency, as of Monday, January 22.
The top three teams in the conference seem etched in stone. Purdue is the clear favorite and is a probable one-seed come NCAA tournament time. Illinois and Wisconsin look like they'll finish in second and third, but after a couple more games, these three could mix themselves up.
Without further ado, here's where the Big Ten stands and where it could be headed in the next month of play.
Big Ten Title Contenders
Purdue Boilermakers (-280)
The Boilermakers are expected to win this conference, so this line doesn't do us any favors. The Boilers still technically sit behind Wisconsin with two conference losses.
Any team that's beaten or kept things close against Purdue has been able to either, 1) contain Zach Edey in some manner, or 2) hold the guards in check.
When Purdue lost to Nebraska, Edey only notched 15 points and pulled in seven boards. Braden Smith, Mason Gillis, Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones all had double-digit points, but the Cornhuskers shot over 60% from 3 and won the turnover battle 14-9
When Northwestern beat Purdue in early December, Edey had 35 points and 14 rebounds. Smith, Loyer and Jones all held double-digit points, but again, NU won the turnover battle 17-3 while shooting 50% from deep.
No matter what Edey does, the recipe for beating this team is to pressure the guards and have the best shooting night of your life from outside.
Since that Nebraska loss, Purdue has absolutely carved up Penn State, Indiana and Iowa. These aren't the Big Ten’s best, but it's still telling how well the Boilers played against them.
So, is this Purdue team beatable? Absolutely. Will it lose the Big Ten regular season championship? Maybe not.
The Boilers' toughest test comes in early February in Madison, Wisconsin. KenPom projects this to be a one-point road victory for the Boilermakers.
Wisconsin Badgers (+450)
As stated above, Wisconsin is currently the leader in the Big Ten at 6-1. Luckily for the Badgers, they only have to face Illinois once and Michigan State once more to end the season. Both of those games are home, so they may have some value to win the conference.
However, Wisconsin’s detriment has been on the defensive end of the floor. Sure, it helps to have wings like AJ Storr who can rebound, and bigs like Steven Crawl and Tyler Wahl who can both crash the glass defensively, but opponents are shooting 35.5% from deep on the Badgers.
They're not much better on the interior, yielding an opponent 2-point percentage of 51.6%. To be fair, Wisconsin is far better at guarding the interior with the size it possesses, but Penn State beat the Badgers by shooting 60% on 2s and 40% on 3s.
The Badgers rank 275th, per ShotQuality, in Open 3 Rate, which is abysmal. Given their slow pace, a team that can hit more shots on limited possessions can take down the current Big Ten leader.
Illinois Fighting Illini (+700)
Illinois is the most intriguing team here. A month ago, I told you that anything at +800 or better on Illinois would be a valuable bet. This line hasn't moved much, despite a 5-2 conference record and the fact that it's getting its best player back.
Since I'm not expecting a drop off from Illinois, it might have value at +700 or better.
In December, we had no idea how the entire first month of conference play might pan out. Now it's obvious there's only about three contenders in this league.
Illinois has excelled both offensively and defensively. The Fighting Illini have all the makings of a national title contender; like Purdue, they rank top-10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and top-30 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
This team has one major concern: inconsistent 3-point shooting. Before Shannon's return, the Illini looked pretty sharp in every game, except against Maryland at home. In that game, the Illini shot under 36% from 2-point range and only 27% from deep.
Even though they won by more than 20, the Illini struggled from 3-point range against Rutgers (22%).
Justin Harmon, Shannon and Luke Goode are crucial to the success of this team. Coleman Hawkins, Marcus Domask, and Quincy Guerrier hitting 3s is an added bonus, but Illinois needs default, reliable options from distance.
All that said, this team probably has the most ingredients to beat Purdue or win the conference title. The Illini limit 3s taken, can rebound from every position and have incredible interior defense without fouling. Much of this can be attributed to Hawkins and Guerrier, who are versatile defenders.
Illinois’ loss to Maryland could come back to bite it though, so bear that in mind when possibly placing a wager on the Illini.
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Northwestern Wildcats (+15000)
The Wildcats are one of the last four teams in the tournament in many bracketology projections. Their loss to Chicago State at home could prevent them from going to the Big Dance, especially if they don't win the games they're supposed to win down the stretch.
They have noteworthy victories over Dayton, Purdue and Michigan State, but the toughest portion of their schedule is quickly approaching. On Wednesday, January 24, the Wildcats take on Illinois at home. After that, they have Ohio State at home and Purdue on the road.
Now, Northwestern has gotten by with a consistent offensive approach, but it has issues when one of its three best scorers disappear. Ty Berry and Ryan Langborg are crucial to the Wildcat equation because Boo Buie and Brooks Barnhizer can't score all the points.
After these four, the scoring drops off a cliff. Chris Collins needs to run a short bench because no one else is reliable enough.
Allowed 3-point shooting has been the crux of the season for NU. It dropped Saturday’s game at Nebraska because the Cornhuskers shot over 53% from deep, while NU only hit 32%. On the season, opponents are shooting almost 36% from 3 on the Cats.
Another issue has been rebounding on both ends of the floor. The Wildcats don't get second chances and they lose the rebounding battle more times than not, especially when Matthew Nicholson only logs about 20 minutes per game. This is another reason why having one of their scorers disappear would be a dagger for Northwestern.
In the last State of the Conference, I floated a small bet on NU to win the conference at +3000 or better, but that was assuming they wouldn’t fall victim to a team as bad as Chicago State.
On the contrary, this team just needs to stay the course and win six more Big Ten games to cement itself in the NCAA tournament field in back-to-back seasons for the first time in school history.
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Michigan State Spartans (+3500)
This team is harder to gauge than any other else in the Big Ten. The Spartans have one top-40 KenPom win, but they're one of the most well-rounded teams in the conference. They rank 31st in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 21st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Their detriment, though, has been shooting far too many mid-range shots while not hitting enough from deep. Tre Holloman has stepped into a nice role, shooting the bulk of MSU 3s alongside Tyson Walker.
This has skyrocketed the team's 3-point percentage, but no one else shoots from 3. Per ShotQuality, the Spartans rank 13th in Mid-Range Frequency. This is not a recipe for success, especially when opponents are knocking down 3s.
On top of not attempting 3s, the Spartans own one of the lowest free-throw attempt rates in the conference.
Adding onto that, MSU can't rebound with the best of them. This is yet another reason why the Spartans need to turn those mid-range shots into 3s. If they're not going to get many put-backs against good rebounding teams — like Purdue and Illinois — they need to generate more opportunities for points.
It’s a pretty simple equation, but these two issues will prevent them from rising to the top of the conference.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (+20000)
Nebraska is like Northwestern, with its eyes set on the NCAA tournament. The Cornhuskers have dropped games against Iowa, Minnesota and Rutgers in the conference, so they're clinging to the hopes of being in the upper echelon of the Big Ten.
However, Nebraska has made both Michigan State and Purdue look foolish by launching and hitting a ton of 3-point attempts. The Cornhuskers are basically the anti-MSU because they shoot 3s whenever possible, and they're good at it too.
The Cornhuskers can make free throws and hit from 2-point land as well.
With all that being said, the Cornhuskers struggle mightily with allowed 3s and rebounding. They can run cold from deep at times, which is why they've lost some tough Big Ten games.
On the happy side of the coin, Nebraska is poised to make the NCAA tournament. Like Northwestern, it only needs to win the games it's supposed to.
Ohio State Buckeyes (+15000)
I was probably higher on OSU than most heading into the heat of Big Ten play, but it looks completely out of sync right now.
Yes, the Buckeyes beat Penn State on Saturday, but that was after a three-game skid.
Their offense needs to keep them in games, and right now, it hasn't really done so. In that three-game skid, the Buckeyes didn't score more than 65 points.
This team does have experience and could land in the NCAA tournament come March. Putting money on them, even in this buy-low spot, doesn't seem wise, though.
The Rest
At the current juncture, maybe Iowa, Minnesota and Maryland can go on a run and become a true bubble team, but all of them have major issues — or at the very least, dug themselves a hole they can't get out of (Cough Maryland Cough).
Here are some games to watch with major tournament implications in the next couple of weeks:
- January 23: Nebraska vs. Ohio State
- January 24: Northwestern vs. Illinois
- January 26: Wisconsin vs. Michigan State
- February 1: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin
- February 4: Wisconsin vs. Purdue
- February 4: Illinois vs. Nebraska
- February 7: Northwestern vs. Nebraska
- February 10: Michigan State vs. Illinois
Big Ten Betting Recommendations
Purdue is the best team in this conference, but both Illinois and Wisconsin are slightly behind. Wisconsin has the size to match Purdue, and Purdue barely beat Illinois without its best player.
When it comes down to it, Illinois is both a title contender and a conference contender.
Given its issues on the defensive end, Wisconsin is likely only a conference contender.
At +700 or better, Illinois holds value. If Wisconsin gets to +500, it's reasonable bet as well.
Illinois’ title odds may be worth a look at +5000 at Caesars or bet365. Now that the Illini have Shannon on the court again, the Illini can contend with the best of them.
