Indianapolis will play host to the largest Big Ten Tournament yet, as 15 teams got the official invite, from 17-3 Michigan State to 7-13 Iowa.
It should be fun. My only complaint is how many games will be streamed on Peacock. Yuck.
Let's dive into my top Big Ten Tournament picks and college basketball predictions for this year's conference tourney.
2025 Big Ten Tournament Odds & Bracket
All odds via FanDuel as of Monday, March 10.
 | Michigan State Spartans | +250 |
 | Maryland Terrapins | +430 |
 | Wisconsin Badgers | +600 |
 | Illinois Fighting Illini | +650 |
 | Purdue Boilermakers | +650 |
 | UCLA Bruins | +750 |
 | Michigan Wolverines | +1600 |
 | Oregon Ducks | +1600 |
 | Indiana Hoosiers | +4000 |
 | Ohio State Buckeyes | +5000 |
 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | +15000 |
 | USC Trojans | +19000 |
 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | +27000 |
 | Northwestern Wildcats | +27000 |
 | Iowa Hawkeyes | +30000 |
The Double-Byes
It's pretty wild to see Michigan at 15-1 despite snagging the third overall seed and the coveted double-bye, but it’s not surprising.
Sure, everyone is scared of the Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin big-man ball-screen sets, and the Wolverines run a rock-solid rim-and-3-based offense alongside an excellent rim-and-3 denial two-big drop-coverage defense.
But the Wolverines just aren’t that good, folks.
The problem is almost entirely shot-volume related, as the backcourt throws the ball away like crazy, the passive drop-coverage scheme doesn’t force turnovers, and they’re weak on the defensive glass.
Altogether, Michigan finished the conference season with a -131 field-goal attempt differential, last in the Big Ten by nearly 50 shots.
The Wolverines didn’t dominate the Big Ten. Instead, they snuck by with 11 wins by four or fewer points. They finished 14-6 with a negative point differential.
It’s safe to say I don’t trust them in this tournament and will happily fade them at any opportunity.
Michigan State’s two-way rim dominance, stellar two-way rebounding, and Tom Izzo’s elite transition coaching (on offense and defense) give Sparty a high floor, and I like this team more than most.
But I’m scared to back them at these odds, mainly because the defense is overvalued after conference opponents shot just 26% from 3 on high volume (42% 3-point attempt rate, 15th in Big Ten, per KenPom).
UCLA is among the nation’s best half-court defenses because Mick Cronin’s hard-hedging ball-screen coverage overwhelmed opponents at the point of attack. But the Bruins are also a sketchy offense with their midrange reliance.
Plus, they’re a pumpkin outside the Pacific Time Zone, as they won just two of their seven games away from the West Coast.
I love Maryland. The Terps are among the nation’s most dynamic offenses because they have so many ways to create offense, whether through Julian Reese and Derik Queen on the interior, Ja’Kobi Gillespie in ball-screen sets, or Rodney Rice on the wing.
They also run a somewhat bland but highly all-around effective two-big drop-coverage scheme that denies rim-and-3 opportunities.
But I’m hesitant to back them in a neutral-court tournament format because they rank 344th in Haslametrics away-from-home metric after posting a 5-5 record in conference play. They lost to Washington in Seattle.
The Single-Byes
Since Feb. 1, Purdue ranks dead last nationally in 2-point defense (64%, per Bart Torvik). Cool. The Boilermakers have the country’s best point guard running a dangerous pick-and-roll offense, but they can’t stop a nosebleed off the dribble, and Trey Kaufman-Renn has been a sieve at the rim. No thanks.
I continue to believe that Illinois has the highest ceiling of any team in the conference, as the Kasparas Jakucionis-Tomislav Ivisic pick-and-roll sets are machine-like, and their drop-coverage defense is relatively effective — especially in catch-and-shoot denial.
The Illini were cooked over the past month by injuries and brutal shooting variance — they’ve shot 30% from 3 over the past month, while opponents have shot over 40%.
They’re begging for positive regression, but it hasn’t shown up yet, and their defense has a low floor with how few turnovers they force.
Meanwhile, I'm not overly interested in either Oregon or Indiana. But if I had to pick one, give me the Ducks. Dana Altman tends to overperform in March as he begins to align those Rubik’s Cubes.
They won seven straight to end the regular season, although two came by the skin of their teeth in overtime. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are coached by Mike Woodson, a guy who’s already been canned.
The Cellar Dwellers
I have negative interest in backing Iowa and Ohio State.
I’ve been low on the Buckeyes since Day 1, as their successes were fueled by unsustainable 3-point shooting splits, and all that negative regression hit during a 2-8 midseason stretch.
