The Boise State Broncos take on the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque, NM. Tip-off is set for 11 p.m. ET on FS1.
New Mexico is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -166. The total is set at 151.5 points.
Here are my Boise State vs. New Mexico predictions and college basketball picks for January 17, 2025.
Boise State vs New Mexico Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean New Mexico ML (-160 or Better)
My Boise State vs New Mexico best bet is on the Lobos moneyline, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Boise State vs New Mexico Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 151.5 -112o / -108u | +140 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 151.5 -112o / -108u | -166 |
- Boise State vs New Mexico spread: New Mexico -3.5
- Boise State vs New Mexico over/under: 151.5 points
- Boise State vs New Mexico moneyline: New Mexico -166, Boise State +140
- Boise State vs New Mexico best bet: PASS | Lean New Mexico ML (-160 or better)
Spread
I'm passing on the spread, but I lean toward the Lobos.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the game altogether, but if I had to bet it, I'd take New Mexico on the ML.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: PASS | Lean New Mexico ML (-160 or better)
Boise State vs New Mexico College Basketball Betting Preview
On Tuesday, Boise drilled Wyoming, while New Mexico lost outright to San Jose State, which snapped the Lobos’ 6-0 start in Mountain West play.
Thus, books are shading this line toward the Lobos, making them 3.5-point favorites when I would make the number closer to one.
The Broncos’ game plan is always the same: They play almost exclusively through the paint in posting and rolling actions, with Tyson Degenhart dropping over 18 points per game.
Boise is shooting over 60% from 2-point range in conference play while leading all Mountain West teams in offensive rebounding rate (36%, per KenPom).
It could be challenging for Boise to establish its offense here, as the Lobos are an elite post-up (.74 PPP allowed, 87th percentile, per Synergy) and rolling (.88 PPP allowed, 80th percentile, per Synergy) defense.
Nelly Junior Joseph is still an elite defensive anchor, and the Lobos have plenty of size on the front line when you throw in Mustapha Amzil, Filip Borovicanin and Atiki Ally Atiki.
Overall, the Lobos lead the Mountain West in 2-point shooting allowed (43%, per KenPom) and rank second in defensive rebounding rate (67%, per KenPom). Boise State will try to live at the rim, but New Mexico likely denies that.
New Mexico is also a rim-reliant squad, pressuring the rim in transition and leaning on its front-line size in post-up sets.
The Broncos are an elite transition-denial, rim-denial and post-denial defense, and I suspect Degenhart, O’Mar Stanley and Dylan Anderson will be able to hang down low.
However, I don’t trust Boise’s guards and wings to stay in front of Donovan Dent off the dribble. Dent is among the nation’s best ball-screen maestros in the way he can weave to the basket, and the Broncos are a below-average ball-screen and dribble defense (.79 PPP allowed, 39th percentile, per Synergy).
Ultimately, I believe Dent will be the difference-maker, as Boise doesn’t have the same level of guard creation, preferring to play bully ball against an elite interior defense.
That, plus the situational spot, leads me to believe the Lobos get the job done at The Pit.
But I can’t lay over a possession, given where I project the spread.
If I had to bet on this game, I’d likely take New Mexico at the cheapest moneyline price. Boise State ranks 356th nationally in Haslametrics Away-From-Home metric, so it’s hard to see the Broncos overcoming the fired-up Lobos and picking up a massive road win.
