Boise State vs San Diego State Odds, Pick
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 135.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 135.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
Boise State takes on San Diego State on Friday, March 8, at 10 p.m. ET on FS1. Here's Boise State vs San Diego State odds and a pick for Friday.
San Diego State looks to rebound from a road loss to UNLV as it returns to its home floor on Senior Night against Boise State. The Aztecs find themselves in unfamiliar territory — outside the top four of the Mountain West for the first time since 2017. One win is all that separates the two seed and the sixth.
Boise looks to bounce back off a loss of its own.
The Broncos took home a win in the first meeting between these two, 67-66 win at ExtraMile Arena.
Can San Diego State exact revenge for its early-season loss in the regular season finale, or will Boise State sweep the season series?
Boise State Broncos
If there’s one thing Boise State does incredibly well, it’s rebound the basketball. This is an extremely physical team, and Leon Rice’s squad ranks first in the entire country in defensive rebounding. Just 22.3% of all opposing shots are grabbed for a second chance.
Similarly, Boise is No. 1 in the Mountain West in offensive rebounding.
The Broncos have an underrated offense that rarely struggles. Its biggest issue is depth, as BSU is outside the top 300 in bench minutes.
This is a well-balanced Boise offense, as no player takes more than a quarter of the shots while on the floor. The Broncos love to feed their bigs — O’Mar Stanley and Tyson Degenhart — in the post, often leading to success at the rim. Both rank inside the top 20 in 2-point percentage in MWC play.
But this is also a team that isn’t afraid to sling it from deep. 30% of Boise's shots come via catch-and-shoot 3s, as it looks to use off-screen ball movement or passes out of the post to open opportunities.
Roddie Anderson III and Max Rice aren't the best at creating their own shot, but that’s where second-chance opportunities and that off-screen motion becomes crucial.
Rice and Chibuzo Agbo are the primary shooters for this team. Rice hasn't been as dominant from the perimeter (35.4%, down from 40.7% a season ago), while Agbo remains a steady 40%+ shooter once again.
Boise prefers playing in more physical games and takes advantage of other teams' overaggressiveness, drawing plenty of fouls in the process. The Broncos shoot a Mountain West-best 76.1% from the charity stripe in conference play.
On the opposite end of the floor, Boise State’s length has been disruptive from the perimeter. But at the same time, the Broncos don’t have a player taller than 6-foot-9, and Stanley is a bit too aggressive and can quickly find himself in foul trouble.
The end result is Boise’s 245th ranking on 2-point attempts — 290th in the mid-range, 226th at the rim — and minimal turnovers forced.
In its earlier matchup with SDSU, the Aztecs shot just 6-of-24 from deep (25%) but found all its success inside (59.3% on 2s). Jaedon LeDee was kept in check, though, as he had just seven free-throw attempts and 13 points.
The Broncos are a difficult team to read at times and rank 261st in consistency, per Haslametrics. While they've won five of their last six, most of those games were against Mountain West bottom-feeders.
In general, Boise ranks 323rd away from home.
San Diego State Aztecs
In what's been a down-to-the-wire race in the Mountain West, San Diego State’s loss to UNLV has slid the Aztecs all the way down to the fifth seed. They won't repeat as regular season champions.
Similar to years past, Brian Dutcher’s squad is dominant defensively but allows a lot to be had on the offensive end.
This is a team that runs through LeDee, who takes about 27% of the shots while on the floor. LeDee is one of the most difficult big men to guard in the country, and he draws 7.5 fouls per game — the fifth-highest rate in college basketball. He's an elite rebounder who also shoots 70%+ from the line.
In the last seven Mountain West games, LeDee has scored 20+ in all but one.
Aside from LeDee, the SDSU offense is pretty inconsistent. The Aztecs have plenty of backcourt depth and shot creators, but they've largely struggled from 3. This is a top-30 team in terms of Open 3 Rate (28.6%), yet it's just 272nd in the country in 3-point percentage.
San Diego State doesn't turn the ball over, instead largely operating off the dribble. A quarter of its shots come in the mid-range. In general, this offense ranks 60th in adjusted efficiency.
On the other end of the floor, the Aztecs rank seventh in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and are dominant covering the perimeter. ShotQuality ranks SDSU 13th in defending catch-and-shoot 3s and inside the top 50 in both off-the-dribble 3s and Open 3 Rate Allowed.
This is the No. 1 team in Mountain West play when it comes to forcing turnovers, and we’ve seen it have more success defending 2-point attempts. SDSU forces opponents into late shot-clock situations, and it's an above-average rebounding team — primarily because of LeDee.
Jay Pal has also been a burst of energy in limited time off the bench. In conference play, the 6-foot-9 Campbell transfer is inside the top 10 in rebounding, block rate and fouls drawn per 40 minutes.
There are few teams more consistent than San Diego State —third, per Haslametrics — but it's in the mid 200s in terms of luck, per KenPom. The Aztecs' worst loss came against mid-major juggernaut Grand Canyon, and they own wins against Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga and current-No. 1 team in the MWC, Utah State.
Boise State vs. San Diego State
Betting Pick & Prediction
I wrote about this game in my weekly spots piece, and despite projections having this game San Diego State -5, the line has opened up at my stopping point of 6.5.
Depending on when you're reading this, it may be past the threshold. In that case, I would look toward parlaying Aztecs ML with another decently-sized favorite. I would consider -7, but I wouldn't buy past that.
San Diego State has all the motives it needs. This is an extremely experienced team, and these five seniors are playing their final game at Viejas Arena. Oh, and by the way, SDSU lost in a close game to Boise State when it couldn't hit the broadside of the barn from distance.
I expect this time to be different. San Diego State will create the opportunities on offense — finishing is the final part of the equation — and has an exceptional defense that should once again stifle the Broncos. SDSU is best at defending catch-and-shoot 3s, and that's where Boise looks to live.
There's no better way to spend a Friday night than sweating out San Diego State's season finale at home. Buy the Aztecs to rebound against Boise State.
