The Bryant Bulldogs take on the UMBC Retrievers in Baltimore, Maryland. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Bryant is favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -238. The total is set at 169 points.
Here are my Bryant vs. UMBC predictions and college basketball picks for January 30, 2025.
Bryant vs UMBC Prediction
My Pick: Bryant -5 or Better
My Bryant vs UMBC best bet is on the Bulldogs spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Bryant vs UMBC Odds
| Bryant Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -112 | 169 -108o / -112u | -238 |
| UMBC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -108 | 169 -108o / -112u | +195 |
- Bryant vs UMBC spread: Bryant -5
- Bryant vs UMBC over/under: 169 points
- Bryant vs UMBC moneyline: Bryant -238, UMBC +195
- Bryant vs UMBC best bet: Bryant -5 or Better
Spread
I'm backing the Bulldogs to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total.
My Pick: Bryant -5 or Better
Bryant vs UMBC College Basketball Betting Preview
America East basketball on ESPNU. As the Action Network’s resident AmEast expert, I live for these moments.
If you’d like to learn more about these teams, I recommend reading my recent America East Conference Play update.
That said, let’s dive into Thursday’s matchup.
When Bryant Has the Ball
I’m still skeptical about Bryant’s offensive execution, especially when the Bulldogs spend so much time in the high-paint and mid-range areas. But I’ll put that aside for now.
Bryant’s offense involves identifying and exploiting mismatches, typically leveraging dribble handoffs to earn switches and then attacking in isolation. It’s easy to do when the Bulldogs roster four explosive three-level scoring forwards in Earl Timberlake, Rafael Pinzon, Barry Evans and Connor Withers.
I didn't include a video of Timberlake, but it bears repeating how good he is. The uniquely talented point forward is averaging 14 points, 10 rebounds and five assists per game in conference play on nearly 50% shooting from the field, mainly on the interior (10 paint points per game).
It's either him or Lowell's Max Brooks for America East Conference Player of the Year.
Jim Ferry has done a good job adjusting his defense to his roster. The Retrievers are small, so they’ve extended their defense to ruthlessly deny 3-point attempts, playing the math game by sacrificing 2s for 3s.
But it hasn’t been working all that well.
You can score at will on the interior against UMBC because (again) it's tiny. Bryant leads the America East in paint points per game (40), while UMBC ranks last in paint points per game allowed (38), and that’s a bad matchup.
So, it looks like Ferry is starting to re-adjust — he's a coach who often works on the fly. The Retrievers have played primarily zone defense over the past two games, throwing out zone on 82 possessions compared to 59 in man-to-man last weekend.
That worked well against Albany, as the Danes' zone offense is a mess (Dwayne Killings really can't coach). It also worked well against Vermont, as the Catamounts were without TJ Hurley and TJ Long, meaning they had no shot-makers to beat the zone over the top.
I'm uncertain if that'll work as well against Bryant. The Bulldogs have ripped apart zone coverage this season (1.15 PPP on 87 possessions, 90th percentile, per Synergy). Pinzon and Withers will shoot the lights out over the top, and the Bulldogs have no shortage of versatile playmaking forwards who can work as a high-post pin.
And, obviously, going zone won't help UMBC's rebounding issues.
The most significant single discrepancy in this matchup is on the boards. Because they’re so small (I’m really emphasizing this point), the Retrievers are the worst two-way rebounding team in the league.
Meanwhile, Bryant has done a fantastic job of crashing the offensive boards with its unique length and versatility, leading the league in offensive rebounding rate (35%, per KenPom) and second-chance points per game (14).
Bryant has also done an excellent job at limiting turnovers, leading the league in offensive turnover rate (13%, per KenPom). That’s helped the Bulldogs win the shot-volume battle and has made their oft-inefficient offense much more consistent.
Also, they’ll be able to avoid turnovers against UMBC’s extended defense.
Ultimately, the Bulldogs should earn easy paint opportunities and second-chance buckets when they miss. That bodes poorly for the Retrievers.
When UMBC Has the Ball
UMBC destroyed Vermont last Saturday, winning by 17 in Burlington. The Catamounts were severely shorthanded, but it’s always tough to walk out of Patrick Gym a winner — the Retrievers hadn’t done that since 2020.
UMBC’s offense is dangerous when clicking. The Retrievers have several guards who can beat you off the bounce, led by Marcus Banks Jr. and the impossibly good Bryce Johnson — Johnson has been the single most improved and impressive player in the conference this year, averaging nearly 24 points per game on 52%/41%/77% shooting splits.
So, they space the floor and play attack-and-kick basketball, often earning a catch-and-shoot opportunity, but more often, earning a downhill-driving layup.
Vermont bit on every catch-and-shoot shot-fake last Saturday and was consistently burnt off the bounce. In the end, the Retrievers shot 22-for-30 (73%) from 2-point range, including 17-for-21 (81%) at the rim, against an outstanding interior defense anchored by one of the league’s better rim protectors (Ileri Ayo-Faleye).
Bryant’s defense iso-and-rim funnels, leveraging its unmatched wing athleticism at all five positions — every Bulldog starter stands between 6-feet-5 and 6-feet-11 — to paint-swarm and block everything at the rim.
The Bulldogs have posted an absurd 21% block rate in conference play, swatting an absurd 38 shots over the past four games.
Withers deserves a shout-out here. He's been an incredibly active defender, averaging over three stocks per game. Throw in his 36% shooting on nearly seven 3-point attempts per game, and you've got one incredible two-way 3-and-D wing (although he's much more than that).
A couple of wrinkles in this matchup need to be broken down.
First, it’s important to note that Bryant has been excellent at catch-and-shoot denial this year. The Bulldogs are uber-versatile and switchable on the defensive end, so running perimeter secondary actions against them is nearly impossible.
That eliminates a key avenue to points for the Retrievers, who likely won’t find easy spot-up opportunities.
Second, the Retrievers are miniature. They’re among the smallest teams in the nation, running between 6-feet-3 and 6-feet-6 at all five spots when small-ball forward Josh Odunowo is on the court.
On one hand, it’s good news that Bryant will funnel toward the rim because that’s where UMBC wants to work. And the Bulldogs aren’t an elite dribble-penetration defense, so UMBC will be able to run its downhill-driving offense.
On the other hand, Bryant will have a monster length advantage and should be able to leverage that length to deter or deny any layup opportunity UMBC generates.
That matchup is the key to this handicap. Can the Retrievers capitalize on their at-the-rim opportunities without getting obliterated? If so, they can hang in this matchup or even win outright.
Meanwhile, transition scoring and denial will be crucial between two of the nation’s more up-tempo squads.
Bryant loves to run, but the Bulldogs are inefficient in the open court (.99 PPP, 20th percentile, per Synergy). Meanwhile, I've been super impressed with UMBC’s transition denial (10 transition points per game allowed, second-fewest in the America East, per Synergy).
That said, the Bulldogs could grab plenty of offensive boards on those run-outs, so it might not matter.
UMBC is arguably the nation’s best transition offense, running the open court at high volume with high efficiency (21 transition points per game, first nationally, per Synergy).
While Bryant is good at defending in transition on a per-possession basis (.97 PPP allowed, 73rd percentile, per Synergy), the Bulldogs aren’t so good at transition denial (14 transition points per game allowed, third-most in the America East, per Synergy).
Bryant vs UMBC Prediction & Pick
I think the Bulldogs are juiced in the markets, and I doubt they’ll win every conference game by double digits. There will be a spot to fade Bryant in the coming weeks.
But I don’t think Thursday is it.
This handicap comes down to UMBC hitting its at-the-rim opportunities over Bryant’s length. At best, I think that’s a 50/50 chance.
The rest of the matchup screams Bryant.
The Bulldogs can deny UMBC’s all-important catch-and-shoot opportunities. They can dominate the paint and the glass on offense. Ferry likely attempts to break out the zone, but Bryant can beat that, unlike the Retrievers' past two opponents.
One final time for the people in the back: The Retrievers are nanoscopic. The length and size differential between these two at all five positions is enormous. I can see Bryant overwhelming UMBC with its size and strength.
Speaking of UMBC’s past two opponents, this is a tough situational spot for the Retrievers. They’re due for a letdown after back-to-back wins over Albany and Vermont, especially when the first came in overtime.
For what it’s worth, ShotQuality graded both games as a loss based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed — some regression could be looming, and they could be overvalued.
UMBC’s best chance of keeping this game close is by convincingly winning the transition battle. But if the Retrievers try to slow Bryant down, they’ll end up in a down-tempo half-court game script, where they aren’t comfortable anyway — and Bryant has considerable advantages in the half-court matchup.
If the Retrievers hit their layups, I'll have to tip my cap to another impressive performance. But I’m banking on a letdown and, in turn, another convincing win for the Bulldogs.
