The Butler Bulldogs take on the Marquette Golden Eagles in Milwaukee, WI. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on FS1.
Marquette is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here are my Butler vs. Marquette predictions and college basketball picks for December 18, 2024.
Butler vs Marquette Prediction
My Pick: Marquette -12.5 (0.5u)
My Butler vs Marquette best bet is on the Golden Eagles spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Butler vs Marquette Odds
| Butler Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -115 | 150.5 -108 / -112 | +575 |
| Marquette Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -105 | 150.5 -108 / -112 | -850 |
- Butler vs Marquette spread: Marquette -12.5
- Butler vs Marquette over/under: 150.5 points
- Butler vs Marquette moneyline: Marquette -850, Butler +575
- Butler vs Marquette best bet: Marquette -12.5 (0.5u)
Spread
The number is largely fair based on how I power rate these two teams. However, several key matchup edges nudge me towards a half-unit bet on Marquette.
Moneyline
I have no wager on the moneyline in this game.
Over/Under
The matchup history between Shaka Smart and Thad Matta strongly suggests the under. My own numbers don't quite agree, but I would not fault someone following that coaching matchup trend.
My Pick: Marquette -12.5 (0.5u)
Butler vs Marquette College Basketball Betting Preview
Butler Basketball
It has been an up-and-down start to the season for Butler. Picked eighth in the Big East preseason poll, the Bulldogs have played like a middle-of-the-standings team. Impressive neutral-court wins over Northwestern and Mississippi State have been offset by surprising home losses to Austin Peay and North Dakota State.
Matta has to figure out how to more frequently extract the best version of the Bulldogs.
Butler’s offense is heavily reliant on the wing tandem of Jahmyl Telfort and Pierre Brooks II, two mismatch nightmares.
Telfort is effectively a 6-foot-7, 225-pound point guard, capable of scoring inside and out while also facilitating for others. Brooks, meanwhile, is a 6-foot-6, 240-pound pure scorer with in-the-gym range. He and Telfort have both evolved as mid-post creators – particularly important when teams try to defend them with smaller guards.
Telfort uses his frame to live at the free throw line, and he has a counterpart there in bruising center Andre Screen. The physical fifth-year player is an animal on the glass, and he can put opposing frontcourts in constant foul trouble if he gets touches.
That duo — plus downhill sophomore guard Finley Bizjack — has helped Butler rank seventh in the country in free throw rate, per KenPom.
Defensively, Screen is a stout rim protector, but his general lack of mobility dictates the Bulldogs’ scheme. Butler plays very conservatively, eschewing turnovers to stay home on shooters while forcing teams to score one-on-one. That has made Butler vulnerable to explosive scoring nights from talented individual foes.
The Bulldogs are also thin up front due to an injury to Augusto Cassia, who had started eight straight games prior to hitting the training table. The Brazilian’s absence puts a bigger onus on Screen and Boden Kapke, who has struggled in his limited minutes thus far.
Marquette Basketball
No Tyler Kolek or Oso Ighodaro, no problem. Despite the loss of two electrifying program pillars, this might be Shaka Smart’s best team in Milwaukee.
The Golden Eagles are 9-2 overall – and 7-3-1 against the spread, indicating their propensity to outperform expectations this season. They are now back home after their second close road loss in a difficult environment (at Dayton, at Iowa State).
Marquette’s trademark this season has been a lethally efficient pick-and-roll attack. Led by National Player of the Year candidate Kam Jones (20.1 PPG, 6.4 APG) and overqualified Swiss Army knife Stevie Mitchell, Marquette ranks in the 99th percentile nationally in pick-and-roll efficiency this season while using that action at a 93rd-percentile frequency (both numbers per Synergy).
Teams simply can't stop Jones as either a scorer or distributor; he is too savvy.
That action could get even deadlier as Ben Gold continues to find his shooting stroke. In his first four games, the New Zealander stretch big man was just 5-of-24 (20.8%) from beyond the arc. Since then, he is 16-of-38 (42.1%).
When he is Jones’ pick-and-pop partner, the opposing big man is put in a nearly impossible pickle on how to defend it.
The other key tenet of Marquette’s success has been its perimeter pressure. Again, Mitchell is a sneaky standout stud, terrorizing opposing ball-handlers all over the court.
His “bash brother” in that enterprise is Chase Ross, a super athletic lefty wing who brings plenty of physicality to the proceedings.
Both players are in the top 55 nationally in steal rate, per KenPom – and that's not bad, considering Marquette has played a top-25 schedule thus far.
Butler vs. Marquette Betting Analysis
Neither team has much of an edge on the spot here. It’s the Big East opener for both squads. And while it’s tempting to lock in on an elite team like Marquette coming off a loss, Butler is on a three-game losing streak.
Conference play also gives us the chance to check matchup history. Since Matta arrived at Butler, Marquette has held an edge in the series, gong 3-1 overall (2-2 ATS).
Notably, though, Butler won outright in Milwaukee last season as 11.5-point underdogs. Additionally, all four matchups between the two have gone under the total, doing so by an average of 18.3 (!) points per game.
From a matchup sense, Marquette’s ball screen effectiveness could be a major advantage. If Butler opts to let Jones be a scorer, he could put up 30+ against the Bulldogs’ soft drop coverage, especially without the more mobile Cassia at center.
And if Butler chooses to have Screen try to play more in space, Jones could carve him up or feed Gold for wide open triple after wide open triple. The Bulldogs might have to shift out of their comfort zone against the pick-and-roll.
Similarly, Marquette’s pressure will be a difference-maker. Telfort is not going to enjoy Ross buzzing around him all day, and Bizjack and Kolby King will see more Mitchell than they can handle. Butler ranks 230th in turnover rate, and that’s an issue in this showdown.
In certain matchups, Telfort and Brooks are the ultimate equalizers. But in Ross, David Joplin and Damarius Owens, Marquette has players with the build and mobility to withstand their versatility.
Butler’s biggest edge could be Screen pounding Gold in the paint. If Screen gets him in foul trouble, the board could tilt a little more Butler’s way.
The matchup edges push me to a Marquette bet here. The number makes it dicey, though, so I would only advise a half-unit here.
