The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the BYU Cougars in Provo, UT. Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
BYU is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -285. The total is set at 137 points.
Here are my Cincinnati vs. BYU predictions and college basketball picks for January 25, 2025.
Cincinnati vs BYU Prediction
My Pick: Cincinnati +7 (Play to +6)
My Cincinnati vs BYU best bet is on the Bearcats spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Cincinnati vs BYU Odds
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -112 | 137 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -108 | 137 -110o / -110u | -285 |
- Cincinnati vs BYU spread: BYU -6
- Cincinnati vs BYU over/under: 137 points
- Cincinnati vs BYU moneyline: BYU -285, Cincinnati +230
- Cincinnati vs BYU best bet: Cincinnati +7 (Play to +6)
Spread
I'm backing the Bearcats against the spread in a phenomenal matchup.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Cincinnati +7 (Play to +6)
Cincinnati vs BYU College Basketball Betting Preview
I really like the Bearcats on Saturday.
For starters, this line seems way too high. All the major projection models make this line lower than seven, including KenPom (BYU -5), Bart Torvik (BYU -6), EvanMiya (BYU -4) and Haslametrics (BYU -2.5).
While BYU’s home court is strong, I think the situational spot favors Cincinnati. The Bearcats will be motivated to bounce back off a tough home loss to Texas Tech on Tuesday, while BYU could be due for a letdown loss after smashing Colorado by 20 in Boulder on the same night.
Most importantly, the schematic matchup heavily favors Cincinnati.
Despite Mark Pope bolting for Kentucky, BYU still runs similar offensive stuff. The Cougars run a dribble handoff zoom offense that runs shooters around on- and off-ball screens on the perimeter, hunting open catch-and-shoot opportunities.
They’ll likely have a brutal time running that offense against Cincinnati’s athletic, swarming drop-coverage defense that viciously denies catch-and-shoot opportunities while funneling opponents into on-ball, middle-of-the-floor creation.
BYU is very uncomfortable working off the bounce, and I’ve also seen the Cougars flounder against more physical competition (e.g., a 31-point loss to Houston).
On the other end of the court, Cincinnati is a woeful spacing-and-shooting team. The Bearcats are extremely dribble-reliant, running mainly downhill ball-screen actions with Jizzle James and Day Day Thomas.
BYU’s defense has regressed in conference play, mainly because the Cougars can’t stay in front of the dribble (.89 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed, ninth percentile, per Synergy).
While they’ve done a good job deploying a pack-line scheme that helps keep opponents away from the paint, their backcourt defenders are flat-footed and laterally slow, so I expect James and Thomas to beat their defenders off the bounce and fully unpack the pack line.
The real kicker is if Cincinnati could finally see some positive shooting regression. Yes, the Bearcats are a poor floor-spacing and catch-and-shoot creation offense, but they’ve shot just 26% from 3 in conference play, a wholly unsustainable mark.
Even with their lousy creation, ShotQuality projects the Cats should be shooting closer to 31% from 3, based on the “quality” of attempts.
Attack-and-kick offenses have blitzed BYU’s defense, which struggles to stop the dribble and equally struggles in rotations. The Bearcats could cook the Cougars if a few overdue triples fall.
I love the spot, I love the schematic matchup and I love the spread value. Let’s go Cats.
