The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the Villanova Wildcats in Bryn Mawr, PA. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Cincinnati is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -198. The total is set at 138.5 points.
Here’s my Cincinnati vs. Villanova predictions and college basketball picks for December 3, 2024.
Cincinnati vs Villanova Prediction
My Pick: Cincinnati -3.5
My Cincinnati vs Villanova best bet is on the Bearcats spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Cincinnati vs Villanova Odds, Lines
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 139 -110 / -110 | -170 |
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 139 -110 / -110 | +145 |
- Cincinnati vs Villanova spread: Cincinnati -3.5
- Cincinnati vs Villanova over/under: 139 points
- Cincinnati vs Villanova moneyline: Cincinnati -170, Villanova +145
- Cincinnati vs Villanova best bet: Cincinnati -3.5 (Play to -5.5)
Cincinnati vs Villanova College Basketball Betting Preview
Cincinnati Basketball
The Bearcats have won their seven games by double digits, including a 23-point road beatdown against Georgia Tech. I know Cincinnati has benefited from one of the weaker non-conference schedules in college hoops, but there's value in dominating teams.
With a roster filled with mostly returnees, why is Cincinnati this much better than last year? Well, Wes Miller's offense is vastly better than it was a season ago. Cincinnati flashes the 25th-most efficient offense in college hoops with an elite fifth-ranked defense, per KenPom.
The pairing of guards Simas Lukosius and rising sophomore Jizzle James aided in shifting the Bearcats' offensive fortune.
Lukosius has morphed into one of the country's premier efficient scorers, averaging 15 points per game on 57% shooting and 57% from 3.
Meanwhile, James has settled into being Cincy's elite floor general, leading the team with 5.7 assists and just 1.8 turnovers.
Cincinnati boasts one of the scariest interior defenses in the sport. Texas transfer Dillon Mitchell and 7-foot shot swatter Aziz Bandaogo give Cincinnati's elite defense two studs to protect the rim. Bandaogo and Mitchell rank in the top 10 of EvanMiya.com's DBPR metric.
Good luck scoring inside the arc against the Bearcats. They have the second-best 2-point field goal defense in the country, holding foes to 38% shooting. Bandaogo is the crux of the elite rim-protecting defense, as he swats nearly three shots per game.
Depth is another factor weighing in the Bearcats' favor. While Villanova has a talent drop off beyond its top four players, Cincinnati can go nine or 10 deep.
The injury to Dan Skillings Jr. pushed each player in the rotation up a bit, but Day Day Thomas' return gives the Bearcats a floor general for the second unit.
Plus, freshman Tyler Betsey is one of Coach Miller's most prolific shooters, while forward Arrinten Page looks like another portal steal.
Villanova Basketball
The Wildcats need a big win to get the fans excited again. They enter this game at 4-4, with two losses to high-major foes.
Kyle Neptune is no Jay Wright, but he doesn't need to be. He just needs to do enough for Villanova to make the NCAA Tournament, which has yet to happen in Neptune's tenure.
Villanova's path to winning games against high-major foes is consistent scoring from players other than Eric Dixon. The nation's second-leading scorer poured in 20+ points in each of Villanova's four losses, including 38 versus Maryland and 33 versus Columbia.
Who else can help Dixon? We know Villanova can lose even if Dixon has a historically good night, which means the emergence of other scorers is key.
Wooga Poplar and Jhamir Brickus are the second- and third-best scorers on Nova's roster, each scoring 12 points a night. But one of the two must be more potent than that number. I'm guessing Poplar was supposed to be the guy next to Dixon, but he's struggled.
The main problem is the Wildcats can't defend. Villanova allowed 70+ points in each of its losses — I said the 70 number because allowing this Virginia team to score 70 might be worse than 90 to Columbia.
I found a great statistic outlining how poor Villanova's defense is. If you flip Bart Torvik's numbers to exclude preseason expectations, Villanova ranks 202nd in defensive efficiency.
That's one of the worst figures you will find for a high-major program.
Villanova has no answer for defending the arc, as opponents shoot 35.9% from 3 this year. That feels like it could be a total nightmare against this uber-efficient Bearcats offense.
Cincinnati vs. Villanova Betting Analysis
With the spread sitting at just 3.5 points, I have to back the Bearcats here. Sure, Villanova is at home, but that didn't matter against Columbia, and Cincy has already secured road wins in arguably tougher environments against Northern Kentucky and Georgia Tech.
I truly think the Bearcats upside is winning the Big 12 Conference.
On the flip side, Villanova might be the worst team in the Big East, and I don't see this train wreck getting on the tracks here.
