NC State vs. Duke and Iowa State vs. Arizona take centerstage on Monday in college basketball, but there's plenty of other betting value in the sport.
I'm targeting three specific games, with two Big Ten duels featured.
So, here's my college basketball best bets, including three top picks and predictions for Monday, January 27.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Penn State vs. Michigan
Michigan had the unenviable task of going to Mackey Arena last Friday and facing a Purdue team that was coming off a home loss. Backing Purdue in that spot appealed to me, and the Boilers didn't disappoint in a 27-point rout that was never in doubt.
Now Michigan is the angry team looking to rebound after a disastrous performance. Back home at the Crisler Center against a feisty — but less talented — Penn State squad, I think Michigan earns a blowout win of its own.
The one matchup concern is Penn State’s ability to force turnovers against Michigan’s shaky decision-making. The Wolverines coughed it up a staggering 22 times at Purdue. But back home in a bounce-back spot, I expect a significantly cleaner game.
Plus, the Wolverines’ massive edges in other areas more than make up for that concern.
Michigan should dominate the boards, especially on the offensive end. Penn State is the worst defensive rebounding team in the conference in league play, surrendering a second chance on nearly 34% of attempts. Michigan’s massive frontcourt can easily take advantage of that soft spot.
The imposing frontline duo of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin will also eat in the pick-and-roll. The Nittany Lions roll with a smaller lineup around center Yanic Konan Niederhauser, and that’s especially true with Puff Johnson currently on the shelf due to injury.
Michigan’s 4/5 ball screens are deadly against any defense, but that'll be especially true when facing a vulnerable interior defense.
The line may have some sticker shock, but in a high-total contest (over/under of 160), covering nine points is more doable.
Pick: Michigan -8.5 (Play to -10)
Iowa vs. Ohio State
The key aspect of any Iowa game is whether the Hawkeyes can manage to get any stops. Their defense has long been their weakness under Fran McCaffery, with the interior and the glass being particularly shaky this season.
Fortunately, those aren't huge areas of strength for the Buckeyes. Ohio State is merely an average rebounding team, and it ranks 14th in the Big Ten in 2-point percentage offense.
In general, the Buckeyes land a measly 16th in the conference in offensive efficiency against league foes, so Iowa’s flaws are let off the hook.
That should allow Iowa’s offense to shine and keep this game close. Ohio State’s defense has preyed on poor shooting from its opponents; per ShotQuality, foes would be expected to be shooting 4.8% better from beyond the arc and 4.1% better from the mid-range.
Iowa’s lethal attack is the perfect opponent for that regression to manifest.
The Hawkeyes rank ninth in the entire country in 3-point percentage. Four players in the rotation shoot 39.6% or better from deep, and that doesn't include deadly wing Payton Sandfort, the team’s most potent perimeter threat.
Iowa’s first trip west was a nightmare, but a narrow two-point loss at Michigan shows that McCaffery’s squad can compete away from home.
This spread is too big.
Pick: Iowa +8 (Play to +7)
Southern vs. Mississippi Valley State
Beyond two Big Ten wagers is a SWAC handicap. It’s not just any SWAC game, though — it’s the best team in the league facing the worst team in the country.
Mississippi Valley State isn't just a run-of-the-mill terrible team. These Delta Devils are historically bad. They have the worst efficiency margin of any team in the last four seasons of KenPom’s rankings. The last team to be worse was … 2021 Mississippi Valley State.
The Delta Devils welcome Southern to town, the class of the league and one capable of smacking inferior SWAC foes. The Jaguars beat Florida A&M by 34, and they just won at Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 16.
Southern’s stingy defense is the best in the conference. It made power conference foes like Texas A&M, Ole Miss, USC and Nebraska work extremely hard to score; it’s no wonder that SWAC opponents have found it difficult, as well.
The Jaguars have a ton of depth and use it to fly around and create mayhem.
With the least efficient offense in the country, Mississippi Valley State could have serious trouble finding ways to score. Perhaps the biggest concern is MVSU’s 363rd-ranked turnover rate. Miscues against Southern’s pressure will lead to easy buckets going the other way, a perfect recipe for a blowout.
Do I feel somewhat guilty picking on a team like MVSU? Yes, but Southern is plenty capable of winning this game by 30.
Pick: Southern -23 (Play to -24)
