Thursday's college basketball slate doesn't have the top-25 duels of Wednesday, but there's still plenty of betting value on the board — and we have the start of the Diamond Head Classic.
Dive in below for college basketball best bets and our staff's three top picks for Thursday, December 21.
College Basketball Best Bets for Thursday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
TCU vs. Old Dominion
By D.J. James
TCU and Old Dominion face off Thursday night in a non-conference showdown.
ODU ranks 186th in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, and the Monarchs average 18.4 seconds per possession on defense.
TCU ranks 32nd in Adjusted Tempo, but it averages 13.9 seconds per possession on offense and 18.2 seconds per possession on defense.
However, Old Dominion does one thing well: It takes care of the basketball. The Monarchs rank 36th in offensive turnover rate.
However, they’re also abysmal when it comes to 2-point shots, hitting only 47% from inside the arc, while shooting 33.5% from deep. That said, they rank 299th in 3-point attempt rate, so they don’t take many shots from deep.
The Horned Frogs rank 46th in the country in 3-point attempt rate and hold opponents to 32.5% from deep on the defensive end.
TCU also turns opponents over at the fifth-highest rate in college hoops, but ODU should negate this.
Offensively, TCU isn’t too sharp from deep, hitting only 32.4% of 3s and launching them only 29.3% of the time (334th in the NCAA).
However, the Frogs do shoot almost 58% from inside, and they should get plenty of chances, as ODU ranks 225th in 2-point percentage allowed.
Finally, ODU ranks fifth in Open-3 Rate on defense, so TCU shouldn’t have many chances for efficient deep shots.
Take the under in this game, considering most of the scoring will come from inside the arc.
The tempo should also grind to a halt with how slowly each defense forces opponents to play.
Take the under to 146.
Pick: Under 148 (Play to 146)
Maine vs. FIU
These teams are mirror images of each other.
Both Maine and FIU run ball-screen motion offenses. Both play aggressive defense and force turnovers at a high rate to generate transition buckets. Both rely heavily on their backcourts.
Maine is simply much better at all this.
By Synergy’s numbers, Maine ranks in the 74th percentile of D-I teams in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP (.86). FIU ranks in the 12th percentile (.63).
By ShotQuality’s numbers, Maine ranks 32nd nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (.91). FIU ranks 334th (1.05).
FIU forces more turnovers, but Maine is the much better ball-handling squad — the Bears rank 114th nationally in turnover rate, while FIU ranks 333rd.
Perhaps more importantly, Maine handles the press well (1.1 PPP against press coverage, 93rd percentile), which is huge against a Jeremy Ballard-led defense that presses more than almost any team and ranks 15th nationally in press rate.
And when it comes to turning defense into offense, both transition offenses are around D-I average, but Maine is far better at defending in the open court. Maine ranks top-100 in transition PPP allowed, while FIU sits sub-200th.
FIU’s interior defense is porous (353rd in 2-point defense, 58.3%; .96 post-up PPP allowed, 20th percentile), which will hurt against a Maine team that loves using the PnR motion to generate interior buckets with Peter Filipovity (13.2 PPG, 118.3 ORtg).
Ultimately, Maine is the better team.
Its backcourt tandem of Kellen Tynes and Jaden Clayton is better — and significantly lengthier — than FIU’s Arturo Dean and Javaunte Hawkins.
They certainly take care of the ball better, given Dean boasts a 25% turnover rate this year.
I’d even give Chris Markwood a coaching advantage over Ballard. Markwood has transformed a lifeless Maine team in one season, while Ballard is on Year 6 in Miami and hasn’t produced a winning season since 2020.
The Bears are off to their best start in 20 years. They recently won and covered against Brown, Boston University and Central Connecticut — all teams comparable to FIU, at least by KenPom’s rankings.
FIU is 4-9 with a home loss to Florida Gulf Coast.
Yes, Maine was most recently bludgeoned by UCF, 74-51, but this could be a good bounce-back opportunity against a significant step down in competition.
And the Bears have an extra rest day on FIU, which lost at home to Stetson by 12 on Tuesday. That’s a Hatters team that ranks six spots behind Maine in KenPom.
I’ll take the better team, which is better at running and defending its stuff. This could be the classic case of the wrong team being favored.
Pick: Maine +3.5 (Play to PK)
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Northern Kentucky vs. Saint Mary's
By John Feltman
This total has already dipped nearly two points since open, and I expect it to continue to fall.
It’s no secret that the Gaels are an elite defensive team, but they've been horrendous on the offensive end.
Still, defensively, there are too many advantages for the Gaels in this matchup against the Norse, who will be outsized and fatigued for the majority of this game.
They don’t have any depth, so going up against a tenacious Gaels defense isn’t what I would call an ideal matchup.
Northern Kentucky isn’t a great shooting team, and it loves to attack inside. The problem is that’s the true anchor of the Gaels' defense, which ranks 15th in 2-point percentage defense.
We all know Saint Mary’s is a snail on offense, and it’s been one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, with a porous 27% clip from deep. Well, the one strength of the Norse's defense is defending the 3-point line well.
This fits the mold of a typical Randy Bennett offensive game plan, as the Gaels will bleed the shot clock every possession and attack the rim.
KenPom projects this game Saint Mary’s -10. I would normally be intrigued by the Norse at +15.5, but I just can’t go there with all of the mismatches all over the floor.
I’d expect the Gaels to once again dominate on the defensive end of the floor and earn multiple second-chance opportunities due to their advantage on the glass.
More second-chance scoring attempts for Saint Mary’s means it can reset its offensive sets, which will result in more time burning off the clock.
It’s definitely a trendy pick, but even with positive shooting regression coming for the Gaels' offense, I still think this defense will have its way with the Norse.
Don’t overthink this one. Grab this under as soon as possible before it continues to fall.
Pick: Under 127.5 (Play to 126)
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