College Basketball Best Bets | 3 Picks for Thursday

Move over NFL! We have a juicy Thanksgiving course of college hoops as Villanova takes on No. 14 North Carolina in Atlantis and Arizona and Michigan State square off in a top-25 tilt.

Dive in below for your college basketball best bets and three Thanksgiving picks for Thursday, Nov. 23.

College Basketball Best Bets for Thanksgiving

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Texas A&M -6.5
	3 p.m.	Under 159.5
	4 p.m.	Arizona -4.5
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Thursday, Nov. 23

12 p.m. ET

ESPN

Texas A&M -6.5

By Kevin Rogers

Both Penn State and Texas A&M head to Kissimmee, Florida, owning perfect 4-0 records as they tip-off the opener at the ESPN Events Invitational.

The Nittany Lions knocked the Aggies out of the first round of the NCAA tournament last season. Penn State drilled 13-of-22 3-point attempts in that game, while putting together a 25-10 run in the final 10 minutes of the first half to pull away.

Under new head coach Mike Rhoades, PSU has jumped out to a 4-0 mark. But none of the four wins have come against substantial competition (Delaware State, Lehigh, St. Francis PA and Morehead State).

Texas A&M has defeated Ohio State and SMU so far, and is coming off an eight-point home win over Oral Roberts.

Penn State has posted terrific defensive numbers this season, owning the second-lowest EFG% defense and limiting opponents to less than 20% shooting from 3-point range.

There's no question that the Aggies will be looking to avenge that loss that ended their season, while the Nittany Lions likely won’t shoot 59% from 3-point range again.

Let’s back Texas A&M in the opener of this tournament to take care of business against Penn State.

Pick: Texas A&M -6.5 (Play to -7.5)

Thursday, Nov. 23

3 p.m. ET

FS1

Under 159.5

By D.J. James

Iowa usually plays at a high-octane pace with an offense that can score at will. However, on defense, the Hawkeyes have done a good job of slowing possessions down to their liking, even if they have some defensive shortcomings.

The Hawkeyes come into this game against Oklahoma ranked 109th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 13th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, leading to a 37th-overall KenPom ranking.

That said, the Hawkeyes are about average in defensive possession length at 16.7 seconds per possession (ranked 131st).

Now, Oklahoma is a much more balanced team — it's 39th on offense and 30th on defense. The Sooners' Adjusted Tempo ranks 170th in college hoops, but on defense, they're even slower, holding opponents to 18.6 seconds per possession (328th).

One area Oklahoma usually speeds up the game is off of turnovers, as it's forcing them (albeit against weak competition) at a 21.2% rate.

This won't be happening against Iowa, which under Fran McCaffery maintains control over the ball. The Hawks are only turning it over 8.8% of the time this season, which ranks first in college hoops.

Oklahoma also plays strong defense. Per Shot Quality, the Sooners currently rank 19th in 3-point attempt rate, 12th in defending the 3 and 14th in defense at the rim.

Iowa will be better than anyone the Sooners have played, but this efficiency in all aspects on the defensive end should limit the Hawkeyes' offensive approach a bit.

Take the under in this game from 159.5, and play it to 157.

Pick: Under 159.5 (Play to 157)

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Thursday, Nov. 23

4 p.m. ET

FOX

Arizona -4.5

By Tanner McGrath

Sparty looks overvalued in the early going.

They dropped that opening-night game to James Madison and then got cooked by Duke.

Michigan State is a good team, but it’s hard to envision it as an elite national title contender as currently constructed.

That Duke loss looms large here.

While it boasts a dangerous backcourt, Michigan State is small and inexperienced on the interior. Malik Hall and Mady Sissoko are only 6-foot-9, while 6-foot-11 Carson Cooper doesn't have a lot of miles under his belt.

So, when I saw they were battling Duke’s Kyle Filipowski, I knew I had to back the Blue Devils. Duke shot 16-for-27 from 2-point range and 10-for-15 from the restricted area in a nine-point win.

I see Sparty will be battling with Arizona’s Oumar Ballo on Thursday, and I know what I must do.

By post-up PPP allowed, Michigan State’s interior defense ranks 158th nationally by ShotQuality’s numbers and 191st by Synergy’s.

Behind Ballo’s interior moves, Arizona ranks 10th nationally in ShotQuality’s post-up PPP numbers and 72nd in Synergy’s. The Wildcats are getting to the rim at will, scoring a whopping 50 paint points per game, the most nationally.

That’s what Tommy Lloyd-led teams do. They run fast and leverage devastating high-low sets to obliterate interior defenses.

I don’t think Sparty has the horses to avoid that fate.

On the other end of the court, Michigan State will leverage A.J. Hoggard and Tyson Walker in ball-screen sets. Sparty runs the pick-and-roll more than 90% of Division-I teams, and they’re among the nation’s best in those sets.

Unfortunately, Arizona's ball-screen defense has been lethal, especially at the point of attack. Jaden Bradley, Caleb Love, KJ Lewis and Kylan Boswell are four hard-nosed perimeter defenders, and the Wildcats currently rank top-15 nationally in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed (.40).

Suffice it to say, I like this matchup for Arizona. Ballo can eat here, and I’m unsure the Hoggard-Walker duo can.

The one worry is that Sparty’s elite transition defense can keep Arizona from establishing its tempo. But I had that same worry for Arizona against Duke, and the ‘Cats didn’t have much trouble pushing the pace, getting to 78 points on 76 possessions.

Give me the Wildcats, who look like the real top-five team after an electric 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS start.

Pick: Arizona -4.5 (Play to -5)

ESPN Bet Sportsbook is now another option to maximize your Arizona vs. Michigan State action. You can now use our ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for a new user welcome.