College Basketball Best Bets: 4 Opening-Night Picks

We made it! The college basketball season officially tips off today!

While the slate isn't exactly appealing across the board, there's still significant betting value to be had — and we do have USC vs. Kansas State in Vegas. Below, our staff has college basketball best bets and four picks for opening night, including Abilene Christian vs. Oklahoma State on Monday, Nov. 6.

Dive in below to formulate your card now.

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College Basketball Best Bets — Opening Night Edition

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	7 p.m.	UMBC +9.5
	7 p.m.	Under 141.5
	8:30 p.m.	James Madison +17.5
	9 p.m.	Abilene Christian +10.5
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Monday, Nov. 6

7 p.m. ET

ESPN+

UMBC +9.5

By Shane McNichol

This one leans towards “too good to be true” and is flirting with “sucker bet” territory.

Louisville has been an outright disaster in the Kenny Payne era. The Cardinals were 4-28 last season — their first win came in mid-December — including three losses to teams ranked 180th or worse in KenPom.

Louisville grabbed headlines before this season even started by losing a scrimmage to DII Kentucky Wesleyan.

This might be a Louisville home game, but the stands will be filled with fans ready to scream for the coach’s job. There’s a ton of pressure on the Cardinals to take care of business here.

On paper, UMBC is not the perfect team to take advantage — but neither was the DII team that did so last week. The Retrievers still have enough advantages to back as nearly double-digit dogs.

Both teams will be trying to incorporate a ton of new faces from the recruiting trail and transfer portal, putting a ton of stress on the coaching matchup. Given the history of each head coach, I’ll happily back Jim Ferry over Payne given the chance.

Pick: UMBC +9.5

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Monday, Nov. 6

7 p.m. ET

ACC Network

Under 141.5

By John Feltman

I usually love targeting mid-majors early on in the season, but this is a nightmare matchup for the Highlanders.

They do bring a lot of returning experience back, notably in the backcourt with Bryan Antoine and DaQuan Smith. However, this is an offense that finished 313th tempo and was 325th in height, according to KenPom.

I expect the Highlanders to struggle mightily offensively, and their slow tempo will not do them any favors.

North Carolina should have a huge chip on its shoulder after failing to make the NCAA tournament last season even though it returned four starters from the national runner-up team. Considering UNC is at home, this is a spot where it should come out with its hair on fire.

The Heels should dominate the glass, thanks in part to returning preseason All-ACC big man Armando Bacot. There are absolutely no answers for the Highlanders here, so this matchup will be exploited all evening.

The handicap is solely based on the Highlanders' inability to score against this North Carolina team. I think the Heels will be able to score at will, but once they build a big lead, they should pull a lot of their starters.

This is the main reason I don’t trust the Heels to cover this large number. The backdoor will certainly be open for the Highlanders if the Heels slow down the tempo in the second half.

This is a Heels defense that ranks 24th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency entering the season, while the Highlanders’ Adjusted Offensive Efficiency comes in at 160th.

I expect a lot of turnovers forced by the Heels, and I would be stunned to see the Highlanders put up their fair share of points.

Pick: Under 141.5 (Play to 140)

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Monday, Nov. 6

8:30 p.m. ET

Big Ten Network

James Madison +17.5

By D.J. James

Michigan State could very well find itself in the Final Four come March 2024. However, the Spartans shouldn’t overlook the earlier parts of their schedule. Yes, they have Duke, Arizona and Baylor in the next two months, but James Madison is not an easy team to face in the opening game of the season.

MSU comes into this game ranked 17th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom’s preseason ratings.

Meanwhile the Dukes are ranked 129th and 151st, respectively. They’re not a top-caliber high-major, but they’re balanced.

In addition, the Dukes ran at an Adjusted Tempo that ranked 23rd in the country last season. Meanwhile, MSU will likely slow the ball down (284th in Adjusted Tempo).

MSU brings in an experienced team with experienced guards in Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard, Jaden Akins and plenty of top talent via the freshmen.

That said, the Dukes have a rotation of nearly all upperclassmen. Noah Freidel, Terrence Edwards Jr., Justin Amadi and Julien Wooden will all probably start and averaged at least 17 minutes last season.

Head coach Mark Byington also brings T.J. Bickerstaff (Boston College), Michael Green III (Robert Morris), Bryant Randleman (High Point), Quincy Allen (Colorado) and Jaylen Carey (freshman) to the squad. There’s a mix of continuity and added talent.

One major edge the Dukes will have is they struggled with turnovers last season, but they’re facing a team that ranked 343rd in defensive turnover rate.

JMU will attack the rim, while MSU is an efficient 3-point shooting team. JMU ranked better in Rim and 3 Rate, per Shot Quality, in 2022-2023.

If the Dukes can keep control of the ball and cut into the rebounding deficit, they will cover their number. Take them to +15.

Pick: James Madison +17.5 (Play to +15)

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Monday, Nov. 6

9 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Abilene Christian +10.5

By Kevin Rogers

Oklahoma State has been to one NCAA tournament under Mike Boynton Jr., as the Cowboys are competitive but not an upper-tier team in the very tough Big 12 Conference.

The Cowboys host Abilene Christian, which pulled off a huge upset over another Big 12 foe, Texas, in the Big Dance a few years ago. That doesn’t mean much tonight, but the Wildcats moved up to the WAC two years ago and are a team to be reckoned with.

Abilene Christian is coming off a disappointing 13-17 campaign and its defensive efficiency numbers were some of the lowest in the country.

Oklahoma State owns a 1-4 ATS record in its last five season openers, which includes an 11-point home win over Texas-Arlington last season as a 20.5-point home favorite.

The Cowboys lost five players to the transfer portal, including a pair of double-digit scorers.

Abilene Christian does a great job of creating turnovers, ranking in the top 12 in the country in the last two seasons under Brette Tanner. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State sat 320th in the country in 2022-23 in turnover percentage.

The Wildcats start the season with a pair of tough trips, as they head to Raleigh on Friday to face NC State.

Let’s grab the points with Abilene Christian here against a middle-of-the-road Oklahoma State squad.

Pick: Abilene Christian +10.5 (Play to +9)

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