If you're looking for great betting value on Thursday, college basketball has you covered.
Dive in below for college basketball best bets and our staff's six top picks for Thursday, January 11.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
  | 11:59 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
New Hampshire vs. Maine
The Black Bears are due to win a game. They’ve lost four straight, and all four have been tough losses — two to KenPom top-80 teams, one to Vermont in Burlington and one to FIU when the Black Bears were without their best player in Kellen Tynes.
The Wildcats have also lost two straight, but I’m lower on them than the market, mainly because of looming regression.
New Hampshire’s opponents are shooting only 28% from 3, but ShotQuality projects that number closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts. Opponents are generating only 0.85 PPP on unguarded jumpers, about 0.22 off expectation.
Meanwhile, Maine is due for positive shooting regression. The Bears are generating unguarded looks on 53% of catch-and-shoot attempts, well above the D-I average. But they’re scoring only 0.77 PPP on those attempts, among the lowest marks nationally.
Maine is due for some extra jumpers to fall. What better time for that to happen than against a New Hampshire team due for some opposing 3s to fall?
From a schematic perspective, I think Maine can run its offense. Chris Markwood runs a ball-screen motion offense that heavily utilizes the short roll with Peter Filipovity and Kristians Feierbergs, and both have taken giant steps forward offensively this year.
Meanwhile, New Hampshire is among the worst roll-man defenses, allowing 1.3 PPP on the sets, which ranks 346th nationally.
Jaxson Baker and Trey Woodyard have been turnstiles as low-block defenders, so I expect Filipovity and his 14 points per game to eat against those two.
On the other end of the court, the Wildcats are a transition and post-heavy offense, so they want to run the floor and dump it down low, usually to AE POY candidate Clarence Daniels.
The bailout option is shooting 3s, otherwise known as running and gunning.
But Maine boasts the AmEast’s best defense. The Bears defend everything, including 3-point attempts (60th nationally in Open-3 Rate Allowed) and post-up sets (30th nationally in post-up PPP allowed).
New Hampshire could score on Maine’s sometimes-questionable transition defense, but the Wildcats aren’t that efficient when running the floor, ranking 318th nationally in transition PPP.
That’s the thing about the Wildcats. They’re fun to watch because they play fast, take care of the ball and attack the rim behind a generational America East player in Daniels, but they don’t score efficiently on the interior, ranking 299th nationally in 2-point shooting (46%) and 360th in at-the-rim PPP (.94).
I don’t trust them to improve those marks against the league’s best defense. And the looming shooting regression for both teams should sink New Hampshire in this road bout.
ShotQuality projects Maine as an eight-point home favorite on Thursday, and I agree.
I’m uber-high on the Bears, who I think have America East Championship upside, and low on the Wildcats, who are due for serious defensive regression.
Pick: Maine -3.5 (Play to -4)
Delaware vs. Campbell
By D.J. James
The Delaware Blue Hens haven't really taken off since beating Xavier in December. Now, the Hens take on the Campbell Camels.
Campbell is one of the worst basketball teams in the country right now, as it has only four wins over Division I opponents.
Plenty of struggles have come on the offensive end of the floor. Campbell ranks 325th in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency metric while shooting below 32% from outside the arc and below 50% from inside the arc.
Campbell does get to the free-throw line quite frequently, but Delaware doesn’t foul much on the defensive end.
The Camels are also a bottom-30 team in college basketball in terms of Adjusted Tempo. They play unbelievably slowly on defense, but they’re keeping opponents to just 30.5% from outside.
Luckily for them, Delaware is fairly slow all around when it comes to tempo. The Blue Hens also don’t shoot many 3s or get to the free-throw line often.
Campbell fouls even less than Delaware, so don’t expect many trips to the free-throw line on either side in this matchup.
Finally, although Campbell has a tendency to turn the ball over, Delaware doesn’t force many turnovers on defense.
The Hens don’t turn it over much offensively either, so most of this game should be played in the half-court instead of in transition.
Take this under to 139.
Pick: Under 140.5 (Play to 139)
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Binghamton vs. Bryant
Bryant is a fascinating team.
Last year, it boasted a quick-strike, athletic and aggressive unit but ultimately paired inefficient offense with an ugly, passive zone defense.
But the script has flipped this year.
The Bulldogs have jumped over 100 spots in KenPom’s Defensive Efficiency rankings from last year, showing much more energy and athleticism defending the rim.
That said, a team doesn’t jump over 100 spots in Defensive Efficiency based on “grit” alone.
A team gets lucky.
Opponents are shooting only 30% from 3 and generating .91 PPP on unguarded jumpers, both well below expectation. ShotQuality projects the Bulldogs should allow a 34% 3-point clip based on the “quality” of attempts.
On the other end of the court, Bryant has dropped over 100 spots in KenPom’s Offensive Efficiency.
That said, a team doesn’t drop over 100 Offensive Efficiency spots based on lack of skill alone.
A team gets unlucky.
The Bulldogs are due for positive regression at the rim and from the charity stripe. But I don’t think that regression comes in this game because I hate the schematic matchup for Bryant.
As mentioned, Bryant runs a quick-strike, paint-touching, rim-running offense. The Bulldogs get out in transition and attack the rim behind the dynamic interior scoring duo of Sherif Gross-Bullock and Earl Timberlake.
But Binghamton can stop that.
The Bearcats' transition defense has been solid (.94 PPP allowed, 75th percentile), and their interior defense has been transformed now that Tariq Balogun has slid into the starting center role.
Balogun is an elite rim protector and interior defender. He boasts a 5% block rate, is a tremendous post-up defender (.3 PPP allowed, 17th nationally) and spearheads a defense that ranks 85th nationally in 2-point defense (47%).
Ultimately, I don’t trust Bryant to score efficiently against Binghamton. The Bulldogs have always been a fast-paced but inefficient offense, and I expect more of the same in a bad matchup.
Conversely, I think the Bearcats can score plenty on Bryant.
Bryant’s defensive metrics are great because opposing 3s aren’t falling. Outside of that, the Bulldogs are still running a passive zone defense. They aren’t rebounding, they’re fouling too much and they’re not pressuring ball-handlers enough.
Meanwhile, Binghamton’s cut-based offense is ideal for exploiting a passive zone defense.
The Bearcats cut more than any team in the nation, and they’ve been good at doing so because Syracuse transfer point guard Tymir Sorrence is an elite disher. He boasts a 37% assist rate, consistently hitting Balogun, Tymu Chenery and Armon Harried in stride on back-cuts.
The primary way to beat zone defense is by back-cutting through gaps in the zone. Bryant’s zone has plenty of holes, ranking 350th in cutting PPP allowed (1.5), and the Bearcats score 1.1 PPP against zone defenses to rank in the 78th percentile of D-I teams.
Balogun could expose Bryant on the interior off drop-cuts in this matchup. The Bulldogs run small at the four and five, so the 6-foot-10 Balogun will have a size and schematic matchup on Thursday.
🏴 Tariq Balogun was absolutely key for Binghamton's narrow win last night. 21 points shooting 70% from the field, 7 rebounds and 2 blocks. Impressive presence in the paint, deterred shots all game and was able to finish inside of the catch or from the low post pic.twitter.com/uxveZugs9I
— Eurohoops Scouting (@EHoopsScouting) December 20, 2023
Even better, Binghamton is due for two-way shooting regression. ShotQuality projects the Bearcats for about 2% of positive shooting regression from 3 on offense and 3% on defense based on the “quality” of attempts taken and allowed.
They’re slim margins, but combined, it’s enough for me to consider the Bearcats undervalued.
Ultimately, Binghamton is a play-on team for me in AmEast play because of its elite inside-out duo of Torrence and Balogun paired with incoming positive regression.
Meanwhile, Bryant is a play-against team because of the incoming defensive regression.
Throw in a near-perfect schematic matchup for Binghamton, and I’m rolling with the Bearcats on Thursday night in Smithfield.
ShotQualityBets projects Bryant as only a five-point favorite here, so I think there’s some value with Binghamton plus the three possessions.
Author’s Note: Balogun has been in and out of the lineup over the past few weeks. I think he’ll play, but ’ll immediately buy out of my Binghamton positions if he's out. So, monitor the injury report closely when betting on this matchup.
Pick: Binghamton +7
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Seattle vs. UTRGV
The Seattle Redhawks (10-5, 3-1) will travel to south Texas to face the UTRGV Vaqueros (4-11, 0-4) in a WAC matchup on Thursday.
This will be the first of a three-game road trip for the Redhawks, and they'll look to continue their success against the Vaqueros. In the previous 19 meetings between the two programs, the Redhawks are 14-5.
I expect Seattle to have continued success this evening, relying heavily on its excellent defense.
The Redhawks are the 31st-ranked defense in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, allowing just 96 points per 100 possessions this season.
They shouldn’t have an issue shutting down a UTRGV offense that's languished this season. The Vaqueros rank 318th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, putting up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.
UTRGV doesn’t really pose a threat from the field either. It’s among the worst in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage (345th, 27.3%) and doesn’t shoot particularly well from inside the arc either.
The Redhawks' fourth-ranked 3-point defense should be able to neutralize the Vaqueros’ 3-point game, and I expect the Redhawks to win the battle on the defensive glass, where they grab 75% of available boards.
On offense, Seattle has the edge in this game as well. While it ranks just 194th in AdjO (103.8), UTRGV sits 300th in AdjD (111.1).
The Vaqueros play at a much faster tempo than the Redhawks, but I expect the Redhawks to use their advantage on defense to control the flow of the game against the turnover-prone Vaqueros.
My model has a sizable advantage for the road team here and is projecting Seattle as a 12-point favorite.
Look for the Redhawks to pick up the victory tonight on the first leg of their road trip. I like backing defensive-minded Seattle and recommend laying the chalk at -9.5 or better.
Pick: Seattle -7.5 (Play to -9.5)
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Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara
There have always been two key components to betting totals in college basketball: tempo and free-throw rate.
Gonzaga is the fastest team in the West Coast Conference, averaging 73.7 possessions per game and ranking top-20 in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency metric.
How Gonzaga chooses to shoot the ball reveals more about why the team is an even 7-7 on the total this season.
Head coach Mark Few has nearly abandoned the 3-pointer this season, ranking 316th in point distribution from beyond the arc.
Graham Ike is one of the most dominant big men in the paint, leading the Bulldogs to a top-30 rank in point distribution and field goal percentage from 2-point range.
Enter Santa Clara, which owns a top-50 rank in defending shots inside the arc.
The Broncos have the third-slowest pace in the West Coast Conference. KenPom projects 72 possessions in this game, as Gonzaga will be challenged on the inside by 7-footer Christoph Tilly.
Free-throw rate is where the under becomes the best play. Both Gonzaga and Santa Clara rarely get to the line, ranking 188th and 231st in free-throw rate, respectively, with similar ranks in free-throw percentage.
Not only do both teams not get to the line, but the Santa Clara defense also has the 66th-lowest foul rate on the defensive end of the floor.
Expect tempo on the Gonzaga side, ending possessions with low-risk 2-point shots. Neither of these teams draw fouls, while Santa Clara rarely sends teams to the line.
Look to take the under through 155.
Pick: Under 158 (Play to 155)
UC Irvine vs. Hawaii
By John Feltman
There’s a ton of late-night hoops action on Thursday evening, but how about a midnight tip on the island? Sign me up, please.
UC Irvine will take on Hawaii in what many would deem to be a lopsided affair. The Anteaters have played great basketball of late, winning four straight contests.
The opposite could be said for the Bows, who have lost four of their last five games entering this matchup. With that being said, this is a great spot to back them.
I realize the Bows’ strength of schedule ranks 312th, but this is a situational play all the way. I think we’ve reached the top of the market for this Anteaters squad, and this is a terrible travel spot.
Hawaii loves to let it rip from deep, and it doesn’t allow opponents to beat it on the perimeter. This should help it stifle the Anteaters' recent success from beyond the arc.
Many will look at the metrics and assume the Bows have no chance to score against this Anteaters team, but there are a few areas they’ll be able to expose.
First and foremost, this is a very aggressive UC Irvine defense that tends to be foul-happy. Hawaii also does a great job of generating trips to the charity stripe, so this will help it accumulate some easy points throughout the contest.
Secondly, teams can’t score inside against the Anteaters, but their perimeter defense has been vulnerable at times. I already spoke about the Bows taking a ton of 3s each game, so this could easily be a game in which they get hot from deep.
Lastly, the Rainbow Warriors are due for some positive regression. According to ShotQuality, they’ve been a bit unlucky thus far.
There’s a path for Hawaii to cover this number, and I think this is a great spot to buy the Bows low.
Pick: Hawaii +2.5 (Play to +1.5)
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