Saturday is as stacked of a college basketball slate as you'll see in the non-conference.
- No. 2 Kansas vs. Indiana
- No. 6 Baylor vs. Michigan State
- No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 3 Purdue
- No. 9 North Carolina vs. No. 14 Kentucky
- Alabama vs. No. 8 Creighton
And guess what: To give you the best-of-the-best, we're covering all five of those games in this piece.
So, dive in below for college basketball best bets and our staff's three top picks for Saturday, December 16.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:30 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 5:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kansas vs. Indiana
Assembly Hall will be absolutely rocking for this one, and I think the Hoosiers bring their best in this spot.
Indiana has the size on the interior to bang with Hunter Dickinson and the rest of the Jayhawks' frontcourt.
The Hoosiers will need to knock down more shots from the outside than they have, but they've shot the ball better from 3 at home to this point in the season.
On the other end of the floor, Trey Galloway has the defensive prowess to at least contain Kevin McCullar Jr., who's been playing at a really high level for KU.
Kansas obviously has some matchup advantages and is a top-five team for a reason, but Indiana can do enough here to hang around in its own building.
Give me the Hoosiers as a home underdog catching the points.
Pick: Indiana +7 (Play to +5)
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Baylor vs. Michigan State
By D.J. James
Michigan State has been completely underwhelming, which means it's time to buy low on the Spartans in Detroit against the Baylor Bears on Saturday.
Baylor’s detriment this season has been its defense. The Bears rank 43rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom, while the Spartans rank 16th.
MSU is holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage ranked 28th in the country. They allow a lot of 3s (41.5% rate), but opponents are only hitting 30.8% from outside the arc and 44% from inside the arc on the Spartans.
Per ShotQuality, the Spartans rank 47th in defensive points per possession at the rim. Baylor ranks 137th in this metric offensively, so this is a major edge for Sparty.
MSU ranks 153rd in defensive Open 3 Rate, so this could be a concern, as Baylor ranks 53rd offensively and hits 3s at a 46.1% rate. That said, the Bears rank 233rd in 3-point attempt rate.
All in all, MSU has a defensive Rim-and-3 Rate ranked 51st, while Baylor ranks 151st. MSU’s defense should hold strong.
In addition, MSU should control the pace in this one in Detroit. MSU ranks 333rd in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom. The Spartans average 17.3 seconds per possession on offense and 18.1 seconds per possession defensively.
Lastly, MSU needs to score somewhere, and it should. Baylor is allowing opponents to shoot almost 47% from inside, where MSU manufactures 59.3% of its points. MSU ranks 40th offensively in Rim-and-3 ShotQuality points per possession. Baylor ranks 48th offensively.
Take Sparty in this one to +3.
Pick: Michigan State +3.5 (Play to +3)
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Arizona vs. Purdue
Arizona +1.5
By D.J. James
The Arizona Wildcats are probably the most impressive team in the country and will play the Purdue Boilermakers in Indianapolis on Saturday for the best game of the young college basketball season.
Arizona has been good on both sides of the ball, ranking sixth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. Meanwhile, Purdue ranks fourth and eighth, respectively.
However, Arizona has the defensive edge. Purdue only ranks 230th in Rim-and-3 Rate on offense, per ShotQuality. Arizona ranks 23rd defensively. Basically, Purdue is not the most efficient offense, and the Wildcats should have the defensive antidote to the Boilermakers' attack.
Purdue usually has a leg up on all competition when it comes to rebounding. Obviously, it has Zach Edey, but Arizona has Oumar Ballo and Motiejus Krivas. The Wildcats have the height to match up with Edey.
Purdue ranks 40th in offensive rebounding and 31st in defensive rebounding. Arizona ranks eighth and first. This is another edge to the Wildcats, especially when Edey is not on the floor.
Arizona is allowing opponents to hit 3s at a 33.3% rate, and it ranks 239th in Open 3 Rate (ShotQuality). Purdue, however, ranks 235th in offensive 3-point attempt rate, even if it shoots 40.1% from outside. Arizona shoots around 39% from outside and holds a 289th-ranked 3-point attempt rate. Purdue ranks 69th defensively in Open 3 Rate, so it may have an edge here.
However, this game should mostly be played on the interior.
Finally, Arizona is really strong in transition. It ranks second in points per possession, while Purdue ranks 125th in this metric.
Look for Arizona to force more turnovers, too, as it has a better defensive turnover rate.
Arizona is the more complete team and can be played to a pick'em.
Pick: Arizona +1.5 (Play to PK)
Purdue -1
By John Feltman
This is the matchup of the season thus far in college basketball, as Arizona and Purdue will head to Indianapolis for this neutral-site contest. As someone who thinks these two teams are slightly overvalued in the market, it’s hard not to lean with the Boilermakers in this game.
For starters, this is considered a “neutral” game, but this may as well be a home game for Purdue. Gainbridge Fieldhouse is only one hour south of Purdue’s campus.
Both of these teams are pretty even in the majority of the offensive and defensive metrics, but the biggest area of discrepancy lies in the 3-point shooting department. Purdue is 14th in 3PT% and while the Cats are 25th, they're 192nd in defending the triple.
I have great respect for Ballo down low, but let’s be honest, Edey is on a different level than anyone in the sport. The Cats are No. 1 when it comes to preventing offensive rebounds, but Edey is practically matchup proof.
I do think the Cats have the defensive chops to slow the Boilermakers down in transition, but I’m having a hard time finding matchups they’ll be able to take advantage of. They're going to need to force Edey into early foul trouble.
If the Boilermakers continue their success from beyond the arc, this “home” crowd should fuel them enough to cash in on a huge win. I just don’t see enough areas where the Cats can exploit this Boilermakers team on both ends of the floor.
Pick: Purdue -1 (Play to -2)
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North Carolina vs. Kentucky
By Sean Paul
The four-team CBS Sports Classic will take place on Saturday. In the marquee game of the event, the No. 14 Kentucky Wildcats take on the No. 9 North Carolina Tar Heels. Kentucky dominated the last meeting two years ago in this same event, so who will prevail this time around?
These two teams play similar styles — both rank top-50 in tempo, boast a turnover percentage below 14% and have defenses outside the top 45 in Defensive Efficiency.
The one glaring difference? Kentucky's shooting is elite compared to UNC's measly 35% marker. Sure, 35% isn't terrible, but it's not touching Kentucky's 41% number. That's the lean here.
Although Kentucky's roster is fairly young, I trust a majority of the young guys to say consistent. Some could get distracted by the moment of facing North Carolina, but Kentucky's freshman trio plays well beyond its years.
Expect a barrage of points in this one, but that's not my pick. Go Cats.
Pick: Kentucky ML (-105)
In Q1 2024, North Carolina sports betting fans will be able to bet the UNC games at NC legal sportsbooks. Get the latest news.
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Alabama vs. Creighton
Aside from their elite shooting and solid overall two-way profile, my favorite thing about this year’s Bluejays team is the famed KalkDrop defensive coverage scheme.
Greg McDermott’s squad overplays ball-handlers and shooters on the perimeter and wings, instead funneling them toward the 7-foot-2 dominant rim protector Ryan Kalkbrenner. These guys are generally scared of attacking Kalk in the paint, so they opt for awkward, inefficient mid-range shots.
Creighton ranks first nationally in 3-point rate allowed (25%). The Bluejays also allow the highest percentage of mid-range shots of any college basketball team (23.3%).
It’s the perfect defensive scheme to stop Nate Oats, whose teams refuse to shoot from the mid-range. Alabama ranks sixth nationally in Rim-and-3 Rate (93%) and top-30 in 3-point rate.
I don’t expect Oats to adjust and change his identity. The Tide will keep shooting 3s and trying to get to the rim against Creighton.
I’m betting it doesn’t work.
And if Alabama can’t score at its usual electric clip, it’s curtains — because the defense is pure Swiss cheese.
The Tide have dropped to 90th nationally in Defensive Efficiency. They’re allowing over 75 points per game and have allowed over 1.0 PPP to every high-major opponent, including a whopping 1.2 to Ohio State in an 11-point loss.
The Tide can’t stop ball screens. Aaron Estrada and Mark Sears are incredible offensive additions, but they can’t stop bigger wings on defense. Grant Nelson has been almost unplayable as an interior defender, allowing 1.13 post-up PPP (ninth percentile).
Alabama has played three top-30 offenses this year (Clemson, Ohio State, Purdue) and lost all three by an average of nine points per.
You don’t think Creighton can do the same?
The Bluejays rank second nationally in eFG%, fourth in 2-point shooting (62%) and 26th in 3-point shooting (39%) while taking the fifth-most 3s per game (31).
Kalkbrenner and his 1.34 post-up PPP (96th percentile) will bully Nelson down low. The Bluejays' perimeter off-ball screen actions will roast a Tide defense allowing over 1.0 PPP against those sets (24th percentile).
Creighton’s elite handoff sets will roast a Tide defense allowing over 1.05 PPP against those sets (sixth percentile). Steven Ashworth’s beautiful pick-and-roll sets will dominate a Tide defense that, again, can’t stop ball screens (.97 pick-and-roll PPP allowed, third percentile).
This is the best possible schematic matchup for Creighton.
It’s also a huge bounce-back, fire-it-up spot for Creighton after that horrendous loss to UNLV. The Jays couldn’t hit anything against the Rebels, shooting 27% from 3.
But with how elite the team is, I expect positive shooting regression ASAP. Ashworth is a career 40% 3-point shooter, but is 0-for-7 in his past two games. He’s bound to drain a few back on his home court.
Speaking of home court, Creighton is 105-85-1 ATS at home since McDermott took over.
And speaking of bounce-back, fire-it-up spots, the Jays are 39-28 ATS after a loss since they joined the Big East in 2013.
I’m laying a hammer with Creighton on Saturday.
Pick: Creighton -5.5 (Play to -6)
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