Alabama taking on Missouri in a top-15 duel spotlights our college basketball slate on Wednesday.
However, for the purposes of this piece, I'm looking for the best betting value in the sport, not the biggest of games.
So, read below for my college basketball best bets, including three top NCAAB expert picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 19.
(Take this parlay if you so choose, even though it's not my official play.)
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nebraska vs Penn State
Poor Penn State. The Nittany Lions aren’t a bad team — top-75, per KenPom — but you wouldn’t necessarily know that from looking at their 3-12 conference record.
For the season, Penn State has scored just one victory over a top-50 opponent and just three over a top-100 opponent.
While it’s played some opponents close in its 12 league losses, the wheels are finally starting to fall off.
Over the past five contests, Penn State is 0-5 straight up and against the spread, with losses at home to two of the weaker Big Ten teams in Minnesota and Washington and three blowout losses to Ohio State, UCLA and USC.
The Nittany Lions' season is effectively over.
Nebraska, on the other hand, has been surging as of late. After a 2-7 conference start, it's won five of its last six games and has established a resume good enough for NCAA Tournament inclusion. Experience has led the way.
Penn State will have a hell of a time scoring against this Nebraska defense. The Nittany Lions are one-dimensional on offense and have the league’s second-worst scoring squad on an adjusted efficiency basis.
Penn State goes heavy with the pick-and-rolls in the half-court and needs to get to the free throw line to score points. The Nittany Lions run ball screens at a top-15 national rate and lead the conference in free throw attempt rate.
Nebraska stops both of these aspects at an elite level. The Huskers have excelled defending ball handlers off of screens this season and lead the Big Ten in free throw attempt rate allowed.
Nebraska’s big perimeter shell makes it challenging to find clean looks from deep (also clear passing and driving lanes).
Nebraska’s offense is a little more versatile than Penn State’s. A hand-off heavy attack relies on Brice Williams, Juwan Gary, Connor Essegian and Rollie Worster to create, make plays and shoot.
While burgeoning forward Berke Buyuktuncel is still out with an injury, 7-foot-1 senior center Braxton Meah has emerged as a serviceable frontcourt piece off the bench behind Andrew Morgan.
Also, Berke’s absence has forced Fred Hoiberg to play more four-guard looks, creating matchup challenges for the opposition.
The Huskers will stay hot and take down a reeling Penn State team.
Pick: Nebraska +1.5 (Play to -1)
UCF vs Oklahoma State
UCF is a team teetering on the brink. A feisty 4-4 start in the grueling Big 12 has fizzled to a 4-10 mark, with six straight losses and five straight non-covers.
Perhaps it’s the part of the schedule the Knights find themselves in, or perhaps it’s a patchwork roster finally starting to show cracks as winning becomes more challenging.
Oklahoma State has trended in the opposite direction (40-point blowout loss to Texas Tech aside), and the Cowboys are super tough at home in Gallagher-Iba Arena. All four of Oklahoma State’s conference wins this season have come in Stillwater, and all four have come against teams of UCF’s caliber.
Oklahoma State’s league-worst offense will get a chance to look heroic against the league’s worst defense.
Trips to the foul line should come early and often. The Pokes lead the Big 12 in free throw attempt rate — thanks to a relentless rim attack — and will look to push in transition.
UCF often finds itself out of position defensively, it hacks a lot and it refuses to protect the glass. Thus, Oklahoma State should be able to put points on the scoreboard.
On the other end, Oklahoma State head coach Steve Lutz will apply full-court pressure and look to force turnovers to start the break the other way. If UCF guard Jordan Ivy-Curry is out again (he missed last game with an injury), that’s bad news bears against a scrappy Cowboy perimeter.
The Knights' half-court offense is heavily reliant on isolation and mid-range jumpers from its talented playmakers. Yes, this team is very talented, but it doesn’t play like a cohesive unit. Oklahoma State should be able to frustrate the Knights' heroes trying to go one-on-one.
Look for Oklahoma State to earn a fifth league win.
Pick: Oklahoma State -1.5 (Play to -3)
Gonzaga vs Washington State
It’s Gonzaga world-eater time.
With an NCAA Tournament at-large bid suddenly not a guarantee, Mark Few’s Bulldogs know they need to run the table from here on out and win games by margin.
Following the Zags’ rare two-game skid in mid-January, they've ripped teams apart, winning by 43, 38, 20, 17, 11 and 52.
Yes, a loss to Saint Mary’s was squeezed in there as well, but the point is that "Angry Gonzaga" equals "Scary Gonzaga."
Wazzu had a promising start to the year, but it’s petered out down the stretch in WCC play. The Cougars have lost six of their last seven games and get to follow up a definitive road loss at Saint Mary’s with a home date with Gonzaga.
The scheduling gods were unkind to Washington State in its first season in the WCC.
The first meeting between these two was tight in the first half, but the Zags exerted their will in the second stanza, leading by as many as 23. Wazzu simply couldn't stop the eighth-best offense in the land, as the Zags poured in 1.28 points per possession.
Graham Ike was invincible in the paint, and that should be the case in the second matchup. The Cougars have been sieves at the rim this season, ranking 243rd in field goal attempt rate allowed at the rim and 314th in field goal percentage.
The Zags should eviscerate the Wazzu defense — they never turn it over — and find plenty of easy looks near the cup. If the Cougars sag too much or go zone, look for the opportunistic Zags to hit open looks from deep and dominate the offensive boards against the WCC’s worst defensive rebounding team.
Wazzu’s only hope in this game is to get hot. The Cougars can shoot, but the Zags’ defense has it cornered in every other area. They’ll force turnovers, they’ll disallow second chances and they’ll keep the Cougars away from the hoop.
The Zags should make the 75-mile trek down south, thoroughly handle Wazzu and head back home one win closer to another NCAA Tournament bid.
Pick: Gonzaga -13 (Play to -14)
