3 NCAAB Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets — 2/14

3 NCAAB Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets — 2/14 article feature image
Credit:

Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Mick Cronin (UCLA)

We don't have a single ranked team in action in college basketball on Friday, but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value in the sport.

In fact, I'm targeting three specific spots to help you set your betting card.

So, read below for my college basketball best bets and odds, including three picks and predictions for Friday, February 14.

Quickslip

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
Columbia Lions LogoDartmouth Big Green Logo
6 p.m.
Fairfield Stags LogoSaint Peter's Peacocks Logo
7 p.m.
UCLA Bruins LogoIndiana Hoosiers Logo
8 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Columbia vs. Dartmouth

Columbia Lions Logo
Friday, Feb. 14
6 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Dartmouth Big Green Logo
Dartmouth -1.5
FanDuel Logo

Back in December, it would've been unfathomable to see Dartmouth favored over Columbia.

Columbia went 11-1 against non-conference opponents, including a massive victory at Villanova in the season’s opening week. Conversely, Dartmouth went just 6-7 against non-league foes, including an awful home loss to lowly Le Moyne.

Since the calendar flipped to 2025, though, it's been a vastly different story. Per Bart Torvik, since Jan. 1, Columbia ranks 313th nationally, last in the Ivy League.

Dartmouth, on the other hand, has been surging and lands 182nd in those same rankings, good for third in the Ivy.

Viewed through that “current form” lens, this line is a bargain on the Big Green at home.

Some of that poor performance is bad luck for the Lions: Columbia opponents are shooting a thoroughly insane 45.9% from beyond the arc. The defense has been poor all over, though, as Columbia also ranks last in the Ivy in 2-point percentage defense.

The Lions are also shorthanded, as star guard and four-year starter Geronimo Rubio De La Rosa is out indefinitely. He was having a monster season before getting hurt, and Columbia clearly misses his veteran presence as a scorer and ball-handler.

Dartmouth just won at Columbia, 95-89, less than two weeks ago. The Lions will surely be seeking some road revenge, but I'm riding the significantly better team via recent results.

Pick: Dartmouth -1.5 (Play to -3)


Fairfield vs. Saint Peter's

Fairfield Stags Logo
Friday, Feb. 14
7 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Saint Peter's Peacocks Logo
Under 131.5
BetMGM Logo

Betting on Friday MAAC basketball can be an excruciating experience. It's a highly unpredictable league rife with parity, and finding value on sides has been a challenge for me.

I like this under, though.

The key matchup here is the impotent Saint Peter’s offense (344th nationally per KenPom) against the highly vulnerable Fairfield defense (350th).

In other words, this is a stoppable force meeting a movable object.

The Peacocks’ offense has been pitiful in league play, tallying just 93.4 points per 100 possessions. They rank last in the MAAC in 2-point percentage, 3-point percentage and free throw percentage — a nightmarish triple crown.

Even the Stags’ soft resistance could be enough to slow down bricky Saint Peter’s.

On the other end, Fairfield is going to struggle mightily to find points against a solid Peacocks’ defense. Coach Bashir Mason has constructed terrific defensive units for years dating back to his time at Wagner.

The Peacocks’ primary weakness — a tendency to foul — is conveniently not an area where Fairfield can take advantage (334th in free throw rate).

Pace-wise, Saint Peter's is highly content to walk the ball up the floor, ranking 356th in average possession length (KenPom).

Fairfield’s defense, though weak, does at least force long possessions. Against similarly slow opponents like Saint Peter's, Fairfield has played some incredibly crawling games. Both Marist contests clocked in at 59 possessions, and its trip to Merrimack had just 61 possessions.

One extra piece of evidence: When these two played at Saint Peter's last season, they combined for just 126 points, and that featured a much better Fairfield team.

I'm banking on another slow rock fight.

Pick: Under 131.5 (Play to 129)


UCLA vs. Indiana

UCLA Bruins Logo
Friday, Feb. 14
8 p.m. ET
FOX
Indiana Hoosiers Logo
UCLA -1.5
BetMGM Logo

I'll start this explanation by acknowledging a concern here: UCLA is 0-5 in the central and eastern time zones this season. Mick Cronin has bemoaned the schedule issues with the long west-to-east road trips, and his team’s performance has matched those gripes.

There’s hope this game is different, though.

UCLA just lost at Illinois on Tuesday, meaning the Bruins only have to take a two-and-a-half-hour bus ride from Champaign, IL, to Bloomington, IN. Ideally, they'll be completely acclimated to the time change by Friday night.

Additionally, Indiana is coming off a huge statement road win at Michigan State that vaulted the Hoosiers back into the thick of the at-large discussion. This sets up as a solid buy-low on UCLA, sell-high on Indiana, a solid starting point for a wager.

UCLA’s defense should also perplex the Indiana offense. Cronin’s team plays a compact man-to-man, keeping foes out of transition and forcing jumpers over the top. The Bruins rank 332nd nationally in 3-point rate allowed, per KenPom – meaning they give up a lot of jumpers.

That’s a problem for the Hoosiers, one of the most 3-point averse teams in the country. Indiana’s offense ranks 326th in 3-point attempt rate and 268th in 3-point percentage.

Translation: the Hoosiers don't take many triples, and they don't make many of the ones they do take.

UCLA was also suffering from a team-wide illness against Illinois. Most notably, much-improved center Aday Mara managed just eight minutes. Three days of rest will hopefully energize Mara and the Bruins, and the big man is crucial against Oumar Ballo’s imposing presence inside.

How about it, Coach Cronin – go get your first win east of the Rocky Mountains!

Pick: UCLA -1.5 (Play to -3)

About the Author
College hoops fanatic with a soft spot for the extra pass. Constantly seeking the hot hand.

Follow Jim Root @2ndChancePoints on Twitter/X.

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