While I'm getting set for another loaded Saturday slate — our first without football — there are still two marquee games on the Friday college basketball schedule.
I'm targeting one of those matchups and two other Big Ten duels as part of this piece.
So, here's my college basketball best bets and odds, including three top picks and predictions for Friday, January 24.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 11 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Michigan vs. Purdue
If you throw out the last seven minutes of Purdue’s loss to Ohio State, the Boilermakers are rolling. Unfortunately, Ohio State’s 15-0 run and subsequent victory both do count on the ledger, snapping Purdue’s seven-game winning streak.
That also gave Purdue its first home loss in nearly two years.
There's a slight excuse for the Boilers, though: They were coming off a trip to the Pacific Northwest, and some exhaustion may have gotten into the gears of the engine.
A second straight home loss would be stunning. That hasn't happened at Mackey since February of 2020.
Mackey’s magic is certainly the first reason for this wager. The crowd constantly lifts the home team, and coming off a loss, I expect Purdue to put forth a home run effort.
Matchup-wise, the biggest key against Michigan is combating the Danny Wolf/Vlad Goldin big-on-big pick-and-roll. Matt Painter recently slotted Caleb Furst — alongside Trey Kaufman-Renn — in the starting lineup, which should allow Purdue to simply switch that action, undercutting its effectiveness.
Offensively, this is a great matchup for Boiler maestro Braden Smith. Michigan’s two-big alignment means it has to sit back in drop coverage, which Smith can cut to ribbons with pull-up jump shooting or feeding Kaufman-Renn as the roller. Expect those two to have huge games against this Wolverine defensive scheme.
A final key statistical note: In conference games, Purdue leads the Big Ten in forced turnover rate, per KenPom. Michigan’s offense, meanwhile, is 17th in miscues, a major Achilles' heel all season.
That could be the incremental edge Purdue needs to break this one open in West Lafayette.
Pick: Purdue -4.5 (Play to -5)
Penn State vs. Iowa
Iowa is reeling right now. The Hawkeyes have lost three straight games, including one to Minnesota at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The defense has been frighteningly awful, surrendering 1.36, 1.38 and 1.07 points per possession in that span.
It sounds ugly, but I’m seeing a great opportunity to buy low on a team that's not as bad as those performances indicate.
Like Purdue, this is Iowa’s second game after its trip to the West Coast, so I expect a better effort with the Hawkeyes more distanced from that voyage.
Iowa’s offense was actually the bigger problem against Minnesota, as the Hawkeyes made just 3-of-21 of their triples in that game. I’ll wager that the Hawkeyes don't experience a second straight brick fest.
I’m also buying low on Iowa in what I perceive as a plus matchup for the host Hawkeyes.
Under Mike Rhoades, Penn State’s entire defensive framework is centered around forcing turnovers. Iowa, however, never turns the ball over (13th nationally in turnover rate, per KenPom), aided by frequently playing two point guards together in Brock Harding and Drew Thelwell.
The other key matchup factor is that Iowa doesn't foul defensively. For all of the Hawkeyes’ flaws on that end, they're disciplined in not hacking. Penn State thrives when it can get free points at the charity stripe; its top three offensive options have all taken 75+ free throws this year.
Finally, Penn State isn't going to punish Iowa’s weak work on the boards. These are the two worst rebounding teams in the conference.
It’s a solid spot for the Hawkeyes, and adding in the matchup edges makes it worth a wager to me.
Pick: Iowa -4 (Play to -5)
UCLA vs. Washington
Here's a third straight Big Ten game. It remains strange to write those words about a UCLA/Washington late-night meeting, but it’s true.
I'm going with the total in this game, however, rather than backing another home team.
An excellent unit nationally, UCLA’s defense has struggled a little in Big Ten play, ranking 12th in points per possession allowed to B1G foes.
A huge part of that is ugly shooting splits, though, as opponents have been raining in 3-pointers at a staggering 38.8% in league play, far above their season-long allowance of 33.3%.
Washington’s poor shooting squad offers solid hope of respite in that department. The Huskies are sinking just 32.4% of their treys this year, contributing to having the Big Ten’s worst offense from a points per possessions perspective.
Another key development for UCLA could be the emergence of Aday Mara. The 7-foot-3 Spaniard dominated the paint as a scorer against Wisconsin, but he’s most known for his immense frame and elite shot-blocking. His block rate of 15.1% would rank third nationally had he played enough minutes to qualify.
Finally, UCLA’s downshift in tempo in league play sets up well for a crawling pace. For the season, UCLA has an average possession length of 17.7 seconds, per KenPom. In conference games, though, that elongates to 18.6 seconds, evidencing the Bruins’ patience on the offensive end.
I’m fighting recent trends with this one, as five straight Bruins games have gone over the total. But I see this one turning into a slow, bruising brawl in the paint as both defenses re-assert their strengths.
Pick: Under 138.5 (Play to 136)
