A massive Big 12 tilt between Iowa State and Kansas takes centerstage on Monday in college basketball, but there's also betting value elsewhere in the sport.
In fact, I've targeted three games that I believe should be added to your betting card in some form.
So, here's my college basketball best bets, including three picks and predictions for Monday, February 3.
(A parlay is not my official recommendation, but below there's an option if you so choose.)
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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7 p.m. | ||
7 p.m. | ||
7:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. |
Virginia vs. Pitt
An ACC matchup on Monday pitches Virginia against Pittsburgh, two teams with severely different goals for the remainder of the season.
Pitt has significantly more to play for with an NCAA Tournament at-large bid still in play. The Panthers need wins desperately after losing five of their last seven, including a crushing two-point loss at Wake Forest on Saturday in what was a major bubble battle.
Virginia, on the other hand, has been sputtering through ACC play with an interim coach. The Cavaliers' only road win all season was at Miami last week, one of the few power conference teams seemingly in more dire straits that Virginia itself.
The Hoos are just 10-12 overall, and their defense has been a major weakness in league play.
Under Tony Bennett, Virginia’s defense was one of the more reliable units in the country. But this season, Virginia has crashed down to 127th nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. In conference play, the Cavaliers are surrendering 1.14 points per possession, landing them 15th among 18 ACC squads.
That leaky defense should make this a strong “get right” game for Pitt at home. The Panthers’ last three home games were against Louisville, Clemson and UNC. This game marks the first time Pitt has been a large home favorite since Stanford on Jan. 4, a contest in which the Panthers covered.
Overall, Pitt is 5-2 ATS as a double-digit home favorite this season.
An extra bonus would be if Elijah Saunders, Virginia’s second-leading scorer, remains out for this one. Coach Ron Sanchez told reporters over the weekend that Saunders is day-to-day, but he didn't expect him to be able to give it a go on Monday.
His absence cuts further into the depth of a young team that’s already short on high-level talent.
Pick: Pitt -12.5 (Play to -14)
Incarnate Word vs. McNeese State
McNeese should be out for blood after Saturday’s disappointment on the road.
It’s extremely rare for Will Wade’s McNeese Cowboys to be coming off a league loss, but they did drop one last season on a Saturday at Southeastern Louisiana. They turned around and pulverized East Texas A&M by 26 on the following Monday.
I expect a similar destruction tonight.
In fact, this is a perfect “get right” schedule spot for the Cowboys. They just played two incredibly tough road games last week, barely surviving at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and then the defeat at Nicholls.
Before that two-game stretch, they were 7-2 against the spread in Southland play, all as favorites of 9.5 points or more.
Multiple matchup nuggets make me like McNeese even more. Incarnate Word struggles with ball security, and that’s a recipe for disaster against the Cowboys’ athletic pressure.
Additionally, Incarnate Word never gets to the free throw line (354th in FT rate, per KenPom). Against McNeese’s intense but sometimes foul-prone defense, if you can't get easy points at the stripe, you’re in for a long day.
Notably, a market-influencing picks service released Incarnate Word as a play this morning. That helps my purposes, as it knocked the line down an extra basket.
Getting McNeese off a loss at a bargain price against a bottom-half Southland team is plenty of support for me to make a bet here.
Pick: McNeese -16 (Play to -18)
Houston Christian vs. Nicholls State
The Southland is heavily featured on the Monday slate, and I see a major opportunity to back one of the country’s best against-the-spread teams so far this season.
Under first-year coach Craig Doty, Houston Christian is a dazzling 16-4 ATS, covering by an average of +5.1 points per game. The Huskies have unsurprisingly shot up the national rankings, rising from 357 to kick off the campaign to 270 as of today, per KenPom.
Doty flipped nearly the entire roster, with only brothers Pierce Bazil and Porter Bazil returning from last year’s team. Key transfers Julian Mackey (Georgia State), Bryson Dawkins (junior college) and Elijah Brooks (North Dakota) have injected a much higher talent level into the Huskies.
This Monday spot sets up great as a buy-low, sell-high opportunity. Houston Christian is coming off one of its rare non-covers on Saturday, but even after that game, it's covered nine of its last 11. The market may still be too low on the new-look Huskies.
On the other hand, Nicholls just played arguably its best game of the year. The Colonels are riding high after upsetting league powerhouse McNeese, setting up a potential letdown just 48 hours later.
From a matchup perspective, Nicholls won't take advantage of Houston Christian’s biggest weakness (rim defense). The Colonels rank just 341st nationally in 2-point percentage on offense.
Pick: Houston Christian +7.5 (Play to +7)