We have a small college basketball slate on Monday, but there's still value to be had in the betting world.
I'm targeting three specific games, including two of the biggest matchups of the night.
So, here's my college basketball best bets, odds, picks and predictions for Monday, January 6.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Wisconsin vs. Rutgers
One Big Ten team is coming off a 10-point road loss and trailed by as many 18 in the second half. The other just won by 31 points, racking up 116 points in the process while shooting an absurd 21-of-31 from beyond the arc.
Easy money to ride the hot squad, right? Not for me.
I’m buying low on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as they return home and, even more crucially, get star freshman guard Dylan Harper back in the lineup. The standout southpaw was a late scratch for the loss at Indiana with an illness, but he's expected to return for tonight’s clash with the Badgers.
He could explode in this matchup against a Wisconsin team that has struggled against dynamic dribble penetrators this season. As Greg Gard has leaned into more of an offensive identity, the defense has suffered, and Harper is the perfect kind of big-bodied downhill scorer to gash the shaky Badger shell.
On the other end of the floor, Rutgers’ defense can be exposed inside by bruising bigs like Indiana’s Oumar Ballo. Wisconsin is much more perimeter-oriented, though, playing through dynamic guards John Tonje and John Blackwell. Rutgers has solid backcourt defenders in Harper, Jordan Derkack and Jeremiah Williams.
Between the clear buy-low/sell-high spot and the matchup that sets up well for Harper, I’ll take Rutgers to derail Wisconsin’s three-game winning streak.
Pick: Rutgers +1.5 (Play to -1)
Houston Christian vs. Stephen F. Austin
Nestled between two power conference tilts, we head to the extra board for an ugly under.
This matchup features two Southland teams that prefer to play in the half-court. Both teams rank outside the top 300 in average possession length (KenPom), and both offenses struggle mightily to score.
Those two factors alone are enough to make me place a wager on the under.
Concern lies in possible shooting regression on both sides. Neither team has made 3s so far this season. However, SFA is last nationally in both 3-point percentage and free throw percentage; I believe they're simply a terrible shooting team.
Matchup-wise, Houston Christian won't take advantage of Stephen F. Austin’s two biggest weaknesses: the defensive glass and a propensity to foul. The Huskies rank 292nd in offensive rebound rate and 241st in free throw rate, supporting the notion that SFA’s soft spots will remain unpunished.
The Lumberjacks are outstanding in most other aspects – ball pressure, forcing tough jump shots, rotating, etc. – so the visiting Huskies may find it extremely difficult to score at all.
Curiously, this total is 7.5 points higher (!) than KenPom’s 123-point projection. My numbers are significantly closer to Mr. Pomeroy than the market, so I'll push back against the slight over money that has shown last night and this morning.
Pick: Under 130.5 (Play to 128)
TCU vs. Houston
Three early losses (including two in overtime) to excellent competition made Houston look vulnerable. Despite having four starters back from the second-ranked team, per KenPom, the Cougars appeared vulnerable.
Digging deeper, though, this Houston team has just had some poor bounces late in games. The Cougars held late leads in all three of those losses and could easily be undefeated at this point. Against inferior competition, they've been a juggernaut, looking similar to last year’s ruthlessly destructive squad.
And that comparison is relevant to this pick. Last year, Houston won its Big 12 home games by the following margins: 34, 23, 15, 22, 16, 21, 8, 8, 30. The Cougars started their Big 12 home slate with a 31-point thrashing of an extremely talented BYU team. They're fully capable of demolishing even Big 12 competition.
TCU looks ripe for a blowout. The Horned Frogs can't score, ranking 155th nationally in KenPom’s offensive rankings. They're 245th in 2-point percentage offense. That’s a death knell against Houston’s top-ranked 2-point percentage defense.
Houston’s defense will take care of business. As long as the Cougars can score enough, they can win by a massive margin. Notably, TCU’s defense is weak in the areas where Houston’s offense is strongest: the defensive glass and preventing 3-point attempts. That gives Houston two direct routes to points.
Pick: Houston -19.5 (Play to -20)
