There are only eight games on the college basketball slate on Monday — including three teams playing non-D-I opponents — but there is still betting value to be had.
I'm targeting three matchups, including Penn vs. VCU, on December 9.
So, without further ado, here are my college basketball best bets and three picks and predictions for Monday.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Minnesota vs. Indiana
The headliner on a tiny Monday slate is this Big Ten battle. Indiana fans are likely too thrilled about a College Football Playoff berth to truly be stressed about this game, but the hoops Hoosiers are hoping to get off to a 1-0 start in league play.
A key part of this handicap is the pace battle. Indiana wants to run, ranking 51st nationally in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. Minnesota, on the other hand, is 362nd in that category.
The Gophers’ insistence on slowing the game down likely prevents this from getting too up-and-down. But in a hyped Assembly Hall environment, IU should be able to speed Minnesota up enough to help this total.
The return of Minnesota guard Mike Mitchell Jr. from injury is a major factor here, as well. He is a truly elite shooter, having made 197 career triples at 41.5% (!). He greatly helps the Gophers’ floor spacing and perimeter potency.
Even better, he’s a smallish defender who can be picked on defensively, giving IU a target to attack. Mitchell is a boost to the over on both ends of the floor.
With Mitchell back, Minnesota’s lineups become even more offensive-centric. The Gophers are using Dawson Garcia at the 5 almost exclusively; last year, he played alongside a true center in Pharrel Payne.
Garcia is not much of a rim protector – his game is more skill-based as a stretch 5 on offense — so Indiana’s bruising frontcourt of Malik Reneau and Oumar Ballo can find success at the rim and on the offensive glass.
Considering IU’s pace and the scoring boost Mitchell provides on both ends of the court, I’m expecting points in this one.
Pick: Over 139.5 (Play to 142)
Penn vs. VCU
This bet is largely a continued fade of Penn’s miserable season. The Quakers have been awful this year, going 3-6 overall with disappointing losses to Navy and Lafayette.
They have been even worse from a betting perspective (1-8 against the spread with an average cover margin of -9.7 points per game). That tells me the market is still a long way from catching up to how poor this team is.
If you remove preseason influence from Bart Torvik’s rankings, Penn is a galling 341st nationally. The Quakers have played like a bottom 25 team, with the defense being especially bad.
They cannot get stops, and now they have to go to a challenging road environment at VCU.
It definitely helps that I trust the favorite. VCU is a well-coached, experienced squad under Ryan Odom, and the backcourt is loaded with scorers and creators.
Max Shulga is the star, but Joe Bamisile and Phillip Russell have also provided scoring pop. Hopefully, fifth-year veteran Zeb Jackson will continue to look healthier following a wrist injury after the Rams had four days off.
The Rams’ defense has also been tremendous, leading the entire country in 2-point percentage defense (39.7% allowed). Penn will have no access to easy baskets with Luke Bamgboye patrolling the paint; he would be leading the entire country in block rate (21.3%) if he had played more minutes.
This game is a recipe for disaster for a struggling team like Penn.
Pick: VCU -22.5 (Play to -24)
Hofstra vs. Norfolk State
With only five games on this paltry Monday slate, we have to venture into the weeds for a final selection. This is a battle between two mid-major squads I like from a long-term perspective, but I am seeing value on the underdog here in this head-to-head matchup.
Speedy Claxton’s Hofstra Pride have claimed some impressive wins so far already. They beat Seton Hall in a neutral site game in New York, they won at Atlantic 10 foe UMass and they beat Arkansas State – which just won at Memphis – down in the Bahamas.
In all three of those wins, the defense held an impressive foe to less than 1.0 points per possession. The Pride have an outstanding interior defense, led by bouncy big man Michael Graham and towering leviathan Silas Sunday. That duo is a big part of Hofstra ranking 20th nationally in 2-point field goal defense.
Against Norfolk State, that’s vital. The host Spartans rank 345th in 3-point attempt rate; almost all of their scoring comes inside the arc. That will likely be a struggle given the structure of Hofstra’s man-to-man defense.
Neither team wants to run, so this should be a half-court grind.
With two stout defenses and two savvy coaches, I will take the points.
Pick: Hofstra +3.5 (Play to +3)
