While the first College Football Playoff Semifinal takes centerstage tonight, we still have plenty of college basketball, especially in the Big Ten.
Our staff is targeting three games for their betting cards on Thursday.
So, here's our college basketball best bets, including our staff's top three picks and predictions for Thursday, January 9.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oregon vs. Ohio State
I’m a non-believer in Ohio State. However, the Buckeyes have benefited from some lucky shooting variance (37% 3-point shooting, 28% 3-point shooting allowed), which helped fuel wins over Texas (14-for-28 shooting from 3) and Kentucky (4-for-22 shooting from 3 allowed).
When the shooting variance flips the other way, things get ugly. For example, blowout losses to Maryland and Auburn in which the offense couldn’t break 60 points and the defense allowed over 80.
Aside from two strange home losses to UCLA and Illinois, the Ducks have looked dominant. Of course, Thursday will be their first foray eastward this season, as they haven’t voyaged further than Las Vegas. I’m uncertain how Big Ten travel will affect Dana Altman and Co.
It’s also a tricky schematic matchup.
Altman will switch between amoeba zone coverage and drop coverage on defense, and that will primarily funnel Bruce Thornton into on-ball dribble creation, where he’s been nearly unstoppable on a per-possession efficiency basis (1.3 PPP, 98th percentile).
But Oregon’s been elite against the dribble (.66 PPP allowed, 83rd percentile), and I’m weary of Ohio State’s mid-range shooting (30%, 20th percentile) and its continued catch-and-shoot regression.
That said, Ohio State will also hunt isolation mismatches, a weakness of Oregon’s defense (.89 PPP allowed, 22nd percentile).
However, Meechie Johnson Jr. could miss another game on his leave of absence, adversely affecting Ohio State’s dribble-isolation offense when the Buckeyes need it the most.
On the other end of the court, the Ducks primarily play through Nate Bittle in the post, and Ohio State boasts a rock-solid post-up defense (.74 PPP allowed, 83rd percentile).
However, mobile three-level scoring bigs like Bittle have successfully unpacked Ohio State’s drop coverage — for example, Broome posted 21 points and 20 boards (seven offensive) against the Buckeyes.
I don’t have an excellent feel for the game, but ultimately, I’m going with the Ducks.
I think Ohio State is still overvalued and due for continued regression as the season progresses. Most advanced analytical models (Bart Torvik, Haslametrics, EvanMiya) agree, projecting the game around a pick'em — our Action PRO Model projects Oregon as a 2.5-point road favorite.
I’m also uncertain if any are accounting for Johnson’s continued absence.
Moreover, it’s the perfect spot for an Ohio State letdown following its crazy lucky double-overtime win over Minnesota on Monday. The Buckeyes could be gassed after playing a 50-minute road battle just 72 hours before — Thornton played 47 minutes, and he’ll be overly crucial in Thursday’s matchup if Johnson again can’t suit up.
Meanwhile, the Ducks have enough schematic advantages to win. They're a good team with plenty of two-way versatile playmakers.
Pick: Oregon +3 (Play to +2)
Arkansas State vs. South Alabama
By Sean Paul
I’m looking to fade South Alabama, which enters this contests against Arkansas State — the preseason Sun Belt favorites — on the heels of a 3-0 start in league play. All three of the Jaguars' victories have come by a significant margin, beating each opponent by 28+ points.
I see that changing here. The Jags' defensive principles aren’t built to beat a team like Arkansas State. South Alabama can flash different pressure looks that lead to a plethora of turnovers (22.5% turnover rate), but it also yields a ton of 3-point attempts (60% of opponents shots come from 3).
Arkansas State will oblige, as its offensive attack centers around jumpers. The Red Wolves shoot just 31% from 3, but I have faith in Taryn Todd, Joseph Pinion and Derrian Ford to shoot it well enough.
Plus, Arkansas State has a major size advantage against the diminutive Jaguars. The Jags play just one player above 6-foot-8, which is a nightmare against the Red Wolves’ two rotation bigs — Izaiyah Nelson and Rashaud Marshall.
I’m looking to sell South Alabama. The number is just too much, and the Jags benefitted from beating up on bad Sun Belt teams.
Pick: Arkansas State ML +105
Oregon State vs. Santa Clara
Tanner is on Oregon on the road at Ohio State, and I'm on the Ducks' in-state rival — Oregon State — on the road at Santa Clara.
First, let me start by saying that Santa Clara was a sleeper team of mine entering the season. I thought the Broncos had their best chance to reach the NCAA Tournament in the Herb Sendek era thanks to a roster that featured depth, length, versatility and above all else, a future pro in Adama-Alpha Bal.
But after a victory over Saint Louis on opening day, the Broncos disappointed, losing five of their next seven games. Sendek's club has rebounded since, recording a six-game winning streak, but it hasn't played anyone of significance (besides San Francisco, 97-94 loss).
The bad news in this one is the status of Christoph Tilly, the Broncos' seven-foot center and second-leading scorer, is up in the air.
Tilly didn't play in Santa Clara's win over San Diego, and even though the Broncos have had a week off since then (giving Tilly time to recover from a potential injury), the uncertainty can be factored into this handicap.
Plus, Oregon State is much better than this spread indicates. Its well-coached under Wayne Tinkle and beyond a stinker at LMU, Oregon State hasn't suffered any bad losses.
The Broncos have been one of the more erratic teams in the country this season (317th in consistency, via Haslametrics) and Bart Torvik has this spread at -5 — rather than -6.5 — showing possible value on the Beavers.
I believe this line is a bit of an overreaction to the Beavers' embarrassing road loss to LMU and due to the fact that the Beavers are 0-2 in true road games.
I'll believe in Tinkle and company to keep this one close.
Pick: Oregon State +6.5 (Play to +5.5)
