As finals week continues, we have a rather thin slate on Thursday night in college basketball.
But betting value can always be found thanks to our experts.
So, without further ado, here's my college basketball best bets and three picks and predictions for Thursday, including New Mexico State vs. Texas and more on December 12.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
UT Arlington vs. Arkansas State
The simple handicap for this game is that two jump-shooting-reliant offenses are battling two catch-and-shoot denial defenses.
Arkansas State is a joy to watch. The Red Wolves are among the Sun Belt favorites because they pair an elite drive-and-kick guard (Taryn Todd) with two sharp-shooting backcourt mates (Avery Felts, Derrian Ford) and a dynamo stretch four (Dyondre Dominguez). They space the floor well while running defenders around plenty of dribble handoff sets.
But UT Arlington is an aggressive 3-point denial defense, ranking in the top 40 nationally in 3-point rate allowed and in the top 20 in Open 3 Rate allowed. The Mavericks are versatile and athletic, so they can switch against most perimeter actions.
The Mavericks' offense isn’t quite as pretty. They don’t have a true floor general on the roster, instead playing lots of iso-based hero ball between four or five versatile shot creators.
But Arkansas State has a hyper-aggressive perimeter defense on its rotations and close-outs, leading the Sun Belt in 3-point rate allowed last season. The Wolves also excel at defending on an island (.55 ISO PPP allowed, 91st percentile), which bodes well for this matchup.
The Wolves' defense will over-rotate and leave shooters wide open, but the Mavs don’t move the ball well enough to exploit that.
Typically, two 3-point-heavy offenses battling two 3-point-denial defenses will create a lower-scoring rock fight.
That’s exacerbated by Arlington being due for all sorts of shooting regression on offense. The Mavericks are shooting 40% from deep despite ranking sub-300th nationally in Open 3 Rate. They are also shooting 40% on guarded catch-and-shoot jumpers.
Altogether, ShotQuality projects they should be shooting closer to 35% from 3 based on the “quality” of shots taken.
While the Red Wolves are due for positive 3-point shooting regression, they are also in a big letdown spot following a spectacular upset win over Memphis on Sunday.
I’m also curious about the health status of Ford, who didn’t play against Memphis and barely played in the prior game against Jackson State — he’s among the team’s higher-volume 3-point shooters, so his absence would hurt their spacing.
I worry about the pace, which should be pretty quick. But neither defense is super disruptive with on-ball pressure (Arkansas State’s defensive turnover numbers are inflated from Memphis throwing the ball away 20 times last Sunday), so I would be surprised if there were many steals and run-outs.
Plus, Arkansas State’s transition defense has been stellar so far (.80 PPP allowed, 96th percentile).
Also, Arlington must keep Arkansas State from eating on second-chance buckets, and both teams must avoid fouling. (I’m less worried about the latter issue, considering both squads would rather shoot it than drive it.)
Still, I project the total closer to 155 than 157, and I typically bet unders in these catch-and-shoot-denial battles.
Pick: Under 157.5
Chattanooga vs. Evansville
Chattanooga has looked dreadful.
The Mocs were among the preseason favorites in the SoCon, but Honor Huff and Trey Bonham — two low-major superstar guards — have looked lost on the court. They are 3-5 ATS overall, 1-3 on the road and 2-4 as a favorite. They have failed every major non-conference test faced.
That said, I suspect we are hitting the bottom of the market. Laying a meager -120 on the moneyline with the Mocs against a Missouri Valley cellar dweller is too good to pass up.
Evansville is 2-6 against D-I competition this season. The Aces' only wins have come against KenPom No. 322 Green Bay and KenPom No. 285 Campbell.
I loathe how they run their offense, which consists mainly of isolation and post-creation from a few guys, alongside some pick-and-pop looks from the frontcourt.
They probably could generate some low-block looks against Chattanooga’s weaker interior defense, but I doubt they earn any solid 3-point looks against the Mocs’ relatively solid 3-point-denial defense.
Conversely, Chattanooga is due for some positive 3-point shooting regression — the Mocs are shooting 27% from deep, but ShotQuality projects the mark closer to 34% based on the quality of attempts taken.
That regression should hit against an Aces squad that ranks sub-200th in 3-point rate allowed.
Furthermore, I hope that Bonham channels his inner superpowers and attacks Evansville’s abhorrent ball-screen coverage (.92 PPP allowed, eighth percentile).
Ultimately, I think Chattanooga is good, even if it hasn’t been playing well, and I’m betting on the Mocs’ upside against a lousy Evansville squad.
Pick: Chattanooga -118
New Mexico State vs. Texas
I don’t love laying big spreads like this. And this spread is inflated.
But the spot is too good to pass up.
Texas is in a bounce-back spot after a tough loss to UConn on Sunday, while New Mexico State is due for a letdown after upsetting in-state rival New Mexico in overtime on Saturday.
I actually think Texas could have some issues scoring in the half-court, given that the Horns like to score in isolation and through the post, while the Aggies’ defense ranks above-average in both areas (.82 post-up PPP allowed, 61st percentile; .59 ISO PPP allowed, 86th percentile).
However, Texas is most dangerous in transition, and the Aggies’ transition defense is super vulnerable — they allow the fifth-most fast-break points per game nationally (16).
I’m relatively low on Texas this year, as I think the Horns have real cohesion issues on offense. But they are super athletic and have leveraged that athleticism into blowout wins over every low-major opponent.
Texas should run all over New Mexico State, especially when the Aggies try to press on defense — which they do a lot — because Texas is a surprisingly adept press offense (1.22 PPP, 96th percentile).
On the other end of the court, New Mexico State will have a brutal time scoring.
Rodney Terry-led teams are always elite defensively, and this year’s roster is dominant on that end between the perimeter length/athleticism/versatility and Kadin Shedrick’s rim protection. The Horns rank fourth nationally in 2-point defense, including first nationally in ShotQuality’s mid-range PPP allowed.
Meanwhile, New Mexico State attempts to score almost exclusively in the mid-range, which bodes poorly for this matchup. That has also created a super inefficient offense.
As a result, the Aggies have become overly reliant on crashing the glass for second-chance points, but I suspect they struggle to generate put-back buckets against Texas’ swarming athletes.
The less-motivated Aggies should get bullied by the more-motivated Longhorns on Thursday night.
Pick: Texas -19.5
