College basketball fans have their attention focused on Madison Square Garden for the Jimmy V Classic on Tuesday.
But there is value elsewhere on the odds board.
So, here is college basketball best bets, including three picks and predictions for Tuesday, December 10.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rhode Island vs. Brown
It seems like the perfect spot to fade Rhode Island, given that the 9-0 Rams are on top of the world as they prepare to play their first true road game against a Brown team that Archie Miller has struggled with. Mike Martin has won both head-to-head meetings on the road, albeit by a combined four points.
The Rams are also due for all sorts of negative regression on the defensive side of the court, where opponents are shooting only 25% from 3. They are a borderline-elite catch-and-shoot denial defense, but that mark is unsustainable — ShotQualityBets projects opponents should shoot closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts allowed.
Rhode Island also grades out surprisingly poorly against perimeter secondary actions (.90 off-screen PPP allowed, 47th percentile; 1.00 DHO PPP allowed, 22nd percentile), which doesn’t bode well against a Bears squad that masterfully schemes open sharpshooter Kino Lilly Jr. (47% from 3 on a whopping nine attempts per game).
Speaking of Lilly and the Bears … holy smokes! It’s been a great start to the year for Brown, which has bounced back from a 1-3 start to win five straight, most recently taking down Vermont and Bryant on the road.
While I’m pretty low on my beloved America East squads, the Bears exceeded oddsmakers' expectations in both matchups, winning each outright as two-possession 'dogs.
On the other end of the court, Rhode Island is an up-tempo, rim-reliant squad with a deep backcourt. But Brown is an elite transition defense — partially because Martin is a press-happy coach — so the Bears should keep the Rams from getting into any offensive flow.
I’m a tad worried that Brown’s ball-screen coverage won’t hold up for 40 minutes, especially if Alexander Lesburt Jr. is sidelined. Sebastian Thomas is a scary pick-and-roll initiator.
Still, I think the Rams are overvalued, and it’s a good spot to fade them.
I’m also always happy to grab points with a home ‘dog, especially when ShotQualityBets, EvanMiya and Bart Torvik project the game to finish within one possession.
Pick: Brown +4.5 (Play to +4)
Penn State vs. Rutgers
By John Feltman
This is a smash spot for Rutgers, which has lost three consecutive games. It's been a tough stretch for the Scarlet Knights, but their talent is far better than their record suggests.
Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions are off to an impressive 8-1 record under head coach Mike Rhoades, but this will be their first road game of the season. It's a challenging assignment entering Jersey Mike's Arena in Piscataway and exiting with a victory.
We should see a desperate effort from the Scarlet Knights tonight, and they are No. 1 in adjusted shot quality defense.
Despite a poor start offensively, the Scarlet Knights still rank 62nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are shooting 33% from deep, including 31% from Dylan Harper. Despite not relying on the triple, the Scarlet Knights' shooting regression will be positive moving forward.
They have done well at the charity stripe but have struggled in the rebounding department. We should see positive shooting regression moving forward inside of the arc, and I expect them to be the stronger team on the glass.
The Nittany Lions have been a strong offensive team thus far, but they have been prone to turning the ball over and have struggled at the free throw line. The Scarlet Knights can exploit these areas with their defense.
I like the Scarlet Knights' edge at the stripe, and this is a terrific buy-low, sell-high situational spot. I'm impressed with the Nittany Lions thus far, but negative regression is looming, and a 297th-ranked strength of schedule is concerning.
This is their most significant road challenge yet, so don't be surprised to see them struggle against a desperate Rutgers team that needs a big win to turn the tide of its season.
Pick: Rutgers -2.5
Wisconsin vs. Illinois
By Greg Waddell
Two teams searching for a bounce-back win face off in Champaign on Tuesday as the Wisconsin Badgers meet the Illinois Fighting Illini.
Wisconsin had a humbling week last week, losing back-to-back games to Michigan and Marquette after starting the season an impressive 8-0 and working its way up to No. 11 in the AP Poll.
That always seemed a pipe dream, as Wisconsin was never ranked higher than 29th nationally on KenPom this season.
On the flip side, Illinois was ranked as high as 13th on KenPom prior to last Friday night, when the Illini lost in overtime to Northwestern. Despite a superstar performance from their point guard Kasparas Jakucionis, the Illini shot just 26% from 3 and fell short.
There will be a contrast of styles and personnel in this matchup, as these two programs could not be more different in a handful of ways.
For starters, Wisconsin is very old. The Badgers rank 33rd in average experience and start multiple fifth-year seniors. Illinois’ best three players are all playing their first season of college basketball, as Brad Underwood opted for overseas studs like Jakucionis and big man Tomislav Ivisic.
Pace will also be a contrast. Illinois loves to run (39th nationally in Adjusted Tempo) and Wisconsin is comfortable slowing it down as usual (194th, which is much faster than a typical Badgers team).
One oddity to note: Wisconsin is an elite free throw shooting team, making 86% of its shots from the charity stripe this season, the best mark in college basketball.
Illinois has been the No. 1 most fortunate “free throw defense” this season, meaning teams are shooting worse from the charity stripe against the Illini than any other squad in the country (58%).
Wisconsin’s star John Tonje is a name to keep an eye on. After a torrid start to the season, Tonje struggled last week in the Badgers' losses. He shot a combined 8-of-23 from the floor with eight turnovers and just one assist.
Illinois has multiple options to throw at Tonje. Kylan Boswell has been an elite perimeter defender and has the size to bang with Tonje on his bully ball drives.
Illinois has been great at protecting the rim, as it has great positional size at all spots. Tonje barreling toward the rim isn’t likely to yield success here.
Given the contrasting styles, this game will come down to which team can execute its game plan better. Historically, Underwood has been phenomenal at home in a bounce-back spot.
Underwood’s Illinois teams have gone 26-2 outright at home following a loss since 2020, and 21 of those 26 wins have come by seven or more points.
Back Illinois to cover up to -7.5.
Pick: Illinois -6.5 (Play to -7.5)
