After a wild Tuesday in college basketball, we're back with plenty of intriguing tilts on Wednesday, starting with a top-10 Big 12 battle and another top-25 SEC affair.
I'm eyeing three specific games for my best bets on Wednesday.
So, here's my college basketball best bets, including three top picks and predictions for Wednesday, January 15.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Western Carolina vs. VMI
VMI head coach Andrew Wilson has been a favorite just one time in his 2.5-year tenure. That was back in January 2023 in a tilt against The Citadel. VMI entered as 1.5-point favorites and left as eight-point losers.
Wednesday will be the second time Wilson’s squad is expected to win, per oddsmakers.
Western Carolina is in the midst of a reset year following a coaching change. It's been bad this season, but it’s also played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country and started SoCon play against arguably the three best teams in the league.
Head coach Tim Craft is a good coach, and his new team was always going to need time to gel. The turning point might've came on Sunday, when the Catamounts scored their first conference win of the year (second against a D-I team). Western Carolina hit 11 3s, and that’s exactly how it’ll look to beat VMI on Wednesday.
The Catamounts live and die by the 3. They shoot the ninth-highest rate of triples in the country, though thus far, they've hit just a shade under 28%, the 350th-best mark nationally.
Teams with this type of shot diet — and especially those that play at Western Carolina’s fast pace — are high variance, meaning they can run with the big dogs when hot and fall to the small cats when cold.
VMI will allow Western Carolina to shoot as many 3s as it desires. The Keydets largely play zone and have allowed the fourth-highest 3-point attempt rate in the country this season.
If Western Carolina is hot, it can pull an “upset” over the mighty 0-4 Keydets.
On the other end. VMI’s offense is a two-man show with Rickey Bradley Jr. and Augustinas Kiudulas. Western Carolina isn't the best defensive bunch, but it'll have the athleticism and talent edge, and it has a legit rim protector in Vernon Collins.
Though VMI is hungry for its first SoCon win of the year, it’s not ready to be a favorite under Wilson. Western Carolina should keep this close and vie for a road victory.
Pick: Western Carolina +3.5 (Play to +2)
Samford vs. Mercer
This is one of those “just bet the better team” plays. There's no need to get cute.
Samford doubles over Mercer in talent, and this game should play to 75-80 possessions. The more possessions in a game, the more likely the team with more talent pulls away and wins out.
Bucky McMillan and his “Bucky Ball” style has been blitzing inferior competition this season. Samford plays a mega up-tempo style that ranks in the 87th percentile in rate of transition possessions and in the 92nd percentile in points per possession in transition.
It’s hyper efficient and it’s deadly as hell.
Trey Fort, the leader of the pack, was at Mississippi State a year ago, and he's been dominating the step-down in level.
Mercer’s coach, Ryan Ridder, is no slouch, and he already has this program trending in the right direction. His Bears also play an up-tempo style, ranking ninth nationally in offensive possession length.
But running with the Runnin’ Bulldogs is a bad idea. Bucky has the better horses, and they’ll win over the long run.
Mercer has fared well defending transition so far this year, but Samford will be the best offense it’s faced to date.
The 3-point line will be key. Samford shoots the 14th-highest rate of 3s in the land and makes them at the 16th-best clip. Mercer allows a high rate of 3s, and Samford will take advantage.
On the other end, Samford’s pressure is menacing. Bucky presses at the highest rate in the nation, and his Dogs turn teams over at the 11th-highest rate in the country.
Mercer’s ball handling has been solid thus far, but this will be their guards’ biggest test, and guys like point guard Ahmad Robinson can struggle with ball security.
This is a simple handicap in the SoCon: Take the much better team at a cheap price in a game that should be high-scoring and feature a lot of possessions.
Pick: Samford -5.5 (Play to -6)
Utah vs. TCU
It’s tough to win on the road in the Big 12, and it’s been tough for the Utah Utes to win on the road in general.
Utah has played two true road contests this season, one at Baylor and one at Iowa State. The Utes lost those contests by an average of 24 points per game.
TCU isn’t near the caliber of Baylor or Iowa State, but the Horned Frogs have shown they can protect home court. KenPom ranks Schollmaier Arena as the fourth-best home court advantage in the country. To date, the Frogs are 9-0 at home and 2-0 in the Big 12, with wins over Kansas State and BYU.
TCU’s defense has been its saving grace this season, and it's the only reason it’s been competitive in spite of an offense that lacks shooting and tends to stagnate.
The Frogs have to win with physicality, and they should be able to out-tough and out-strength the taller Utes squad.
Ernest Udeh Jr. must hold his own in the middle, as Utah lives at the rim and relies on it as a complement to its outside shooting attack. Udeh is TCU’s only semblance of rim protection, but he’s done well this year when it comes to staying out of foul trouble.
On offense, TCU doesn’t run nearly as much as Jamie Dixon’s past squads — a clear choice given his talent drop off this season. But the Frogs are still opportunistic in the open floor, and their transition offense has been much better than their half-court attack.
In that half-court, Dixon hands the keys to his two scoring guards, Vasean Allette and Noah Reynolds. Both stepped up in competition this season and both have struggled thus far. However, both can get hot and manufacture offense, musts if TCU is to come away with a win.
The glass will also be a huge factor. Utah isn't a strong defensive rebounding team, and the Frogs have certified glass eaters in Trazarien White and Udeh.
Physicality and effort — leading to second chances — will be the key.
TCU isn't pretty, but the Frogs just need to win by a couple of buckets to cover on Wednesday. The Utes aren't road warriors, and the Frogs need to gobble up every win they can to keep their slim tourney hopes alive.
Pick: TCU -4.5
