One of the best betting weeks of the year is here, and we start with two auto bids and a bunch of mid-major conference tournament matchups on Monday.
I'm targeting three games in particular for my Monday college basketball best bets.
Read below for college basketball best bets and odds, including three predictions and picks for Monday, March 10.
(While a parlay isn't my official recommendation, there's an option for one below.)
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Arkansas State vs. Troy
The redemption angle is obvious for Arkansas State. A year ago, the Red Wolves made a run to the Sun Belt title game, but they fell to an amazing James Madison squad that was simply the better team.
Now they’re back in the Sun Belt Tournament Championship with a chance to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
Bryan Hodgson has done tremendous work in Jonesboro in just two years as head coach, mining the transfer portal for outstanding talent.
Troy is far from a pushover, though. Like Arkansas State, Scott Cross’ team shared the four-way regular-season crown, and these two squads split their regular-season meetings.
The teams are built fairly similarly. They want to use their athleticism to crash the offensive glass and control the rim defensively. Both teams rank top-25 nationally in 2-point percentage defense, per KenPom.
The difference-maker is in the turnover department. Arkansas State takes care of the ball, ranking 35th nationally in turnover rate. That’s vital against steal demon Tayton Conerway and the Troy defense. The Trojans rank seventh nationally in steal rate, per KenPom.
They can be sloppy themselves, though, landing 336th in offensive turnover rate.
Arkansas State is capable of neutralizing Troy on the glass, and the Red Wolves should be able to withstand Troy’s pressure, as well. That would give them a solid edge in shot volume.
That’s enough for me to back Arkansas State, which I make a slightly bigger favorite than -1.5.
Pick: Arkansas State -1.5 (Play to -2)
Montana State vs. Idaho State
Montana State disappointed during the Big Sky regular season, going just 9-9 in the league after being picked second in the preseason.
However, the Bobcats started to show that upside late in the season. They won their final two games by 42 combined points, and a huge lineup shift may have optimized the defense.
Coach Matt Logie decided to bench brutish scoring big man Brandon Walker, calling it a “coach’s decision” for the Bobcats’ leading scorer. That allowed Montana State to put more versatility and speed on the floor with 6-foot-9, 200-pound forward Max Agbonkpolo nominally manning the center spot.
The Bobcats are very switchable in that alignment, and they held each of their final two foes to 0.94 points per possession.
Now the Bobcats get the rubber match against Idaho State in the Big Sky quarterfinals. The two teams split extremely close battles this season, with each winning at home.
The key to beating the Bengals is limiting star guard Dylan Darling. The Washington State transfer has been a killer in the Big Sky, leading the league in assist rate and living at the free throw line while never leaving the court.
Montana State has the length in the backcourt to frustrate him; he shot just 14-of-38 (36.8%) from the field in the two matchups.
I was surprised to see Montana State as a 'dog here. Granted, the game is in Boise, but I think that still plays as a true neutral site.
I made Montana State a slight favorite and will ride with the team that has won three straight Big Sky Tournaments.
Pick: Montana State +1.5 (Play to -2)
Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary's
Pepperdine is on an incredible run in the WCC Tournament. The Waves have won three games in three days, toppling a higher seed in each matchup.
Unfortunately for them, they now get the buzzsaw that is Saint Mary’s in the semifinals.
The Gaels are rested, as well, having not played since Saturday, March 1. That’s a stark contrast from Pepperdine’s fourth game in four days, and the Waves could run out of gas in the second half against such a superior foe.
