Only one ranked team is in action on Thursday in college basketball, but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value in the sport.
In fact, our staff has targeted four specific plays for Thursday's slate.
So, without further ado, read below for our college basketball best bets, including four picks and predictions for Thursday, February 20.
(A parlay isn't our official recommendation, but the option is below.)
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Maine vs Albany
The Black Bears need a bounce-back win after their tough home loss to Vermont last Saturday.
With the loss, Maine finally surrendered sole possession of second place in the America East standings.
Still, Thursday presents a huge opportunity to reclaim that position, especially given the Catamounts face the 11-1 Bryant Bulldogs on the same night.
Meanwhile, Albany could be in for a letdown loss after its miracle victory over UMass Lowell last Thursday.
The River Hawks held an eight-point lead with 70 seconds left in overtime but missed the front end of three 1-and-1s and turned it over twice in the final minute, allowing the Danes to snatch a two-point victory.
I think we can use the zig-zag theory on the Danes. Here are their past eight results:
- Jan. 16: 89-79 loss vs. Bryant
- Jan. 18: 70-65 win at Binghamton
- Jan. 23: 92-87 loss vs. UMBC
- Jan. 25: 68-62 win vs. NJIT
- Feb. 1: 65-61 loss vs. Binghamton
- Feb. 6: 68-63 win at Bryant
- Feb. 8: 68-62 loss vs. Vermont
- Feb. 13: 90-88 win at UMass Lowell
Plus, as you can see, I wouldn’t be afraid to fade the Danes on their home court, where they’re just 3-8 ATS this season.
Between the colossal game for Maine and the letdown spot for Albany, I expect savant Chris Markwood to coach circles around the oft-confused Dwayne Killings — for what it’s worth, Markwood is 5-0 against Killings since taking the Maine job in 2023.
I expect zone defense to comprise a significant portion of that game plan. In the first head-to-head matchup in early January, Markwood seamlessly switched between his base man-to-man and aggressive 2-3 pressing zone, leaving Killings and Albany consistently confused on the offensive end.
When the dust settled, the Danes scored 18 points on 32 possessions against zone coverage, suitable for a minuscule .56 PPP (per Synergy).
Part of the issue stems from the fact that you can zone Albany to death. The Danes are an abysmal shooting and spacing team, and they rely heavily on at-the-rim bully-ball creation from DeMarr Langford Jr. and Justin Neely, often in post-up sets.
If Amar’e Marshall could turn into his old self, things would be different, but he’s shooting under 30% from deep in conference play.
As a result, Albany ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in zone PPP, generating a measly .76 PPP (per Synergy). The Danes can’t shoot and don’t have versatile playmaking big men in the high post, so they’re lifeless against zone coverage, and Killings hasn’t been able to adjust.
Not to mention, Maine is a surprisingly elite one-on-one post-up defense (.81 PPP allowed, 88th percentile, per Synergy), with Killian Gribben and Keelan Steele defending those sets admirably.
In the first head-to-head meeting, the Danes shot 1-for-8 on post-up sets, holding the super-strong Langford to 0-for-4.
Also, Albany is super transition-reliant, and the Danes shouldn’t get much in transition against Maine’s lights-out transition-denial defense (.89 PPP allowed, 96th percentile, per Synergy; five fast-break points per game in conference play, first nationally, per CBB Analytics).
The Danes only managed eight fast-break points in the first head-to-head matchup.
I expect more of the same on Thursday.
On the other end of the court, Albany is a putrid ball-screen coverage defense, especially on the perimeter (.91 PPP allowed, fourth percentile, per Synergy).
That doesn’t bode well against Markwood’s ball-screen motion offense, which runs relentless pick-and-rolls predicated upon the playmaking of Kellen Tynes and Jaden Clayton.
Unsurprisingly, Tynes and Clayton combined for 26 points on 7-for-9 interior shooting while adding 13 assists. Maine scored 28 points on 24 ball screens, suitable for 1.17 PPP (per Synergy).
Again, I expect more of the same on Thursday.
Admittedly, I have some worries about the handicap.
Yes, Maine beat Albany by 21 in that first head-to-head meeting, but the Bears shot 11-for-23 from deep (48%) and generated 20 turnovers because the Danes were missing do-it-all point guard Byron Joshua. I could see some regression hitting in both departments in the second matchup.
Additionally, Maine is still a weak defensive rebounding team, while Albany crashes the boards as much as any America East squad. The Danes snagged 15 offensive rebounds in the first matchup en route to 14 second-chance points.
But given the situational spot, coaching mismatch and general schematic battle, I can’t talk myself off the Black Bears picking up a key road win.
Pick: Maine ML -118 (Play to -120)
Northwestern vs Ohio State
The Northwestern Wildcats and the Ohio State Buckeyes will meet from Columbus, Ohio.
Northwestern comes into this game with a record of 13-13 overall and 4-11 in Big Ten play.
The only team in the Big Ten with a worse conference record is the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Northwestern has lost three straight games, and it's 0-8 on the road this season.
Ohio State begins this game with a record of 15-11 overall and 7-8 in the Big Ten.
Jake Diebler's team desperately needs a win on Thursday to keep its hopes of reaching the Big Dance alive. The Buckeyes have missed the postseason in back-to-back years.
Regardless, the Wildcats will keep this contest competitive and stay within this number.
Northwestern is 6-4 ATS as a road team this season.
Our Action PRO Report shows we're getting substantial value with the Wildcats on Thursday, as the line is set at 7.8 in favor of Ohio State.
Pick: Northwestern +10 (Play to +9)
Cal State Bakersfield vs UC Davis
I like this spot for the Aggies, who are hunting for a bounce-back win as they return home after a 25-point blowout loss to the super-elite UC San Diego Tritons.
UC Davis is a sneaky excellent home team, having won six of its seven home conference games.
Conversely, Bakersfield has struggled on the road, losing six of its seven conference road games with a -13 adjusted efficiency rating while ranking 339th nationally in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric.
The problem for the Roadrunners in this matchup is two-fold.
First, they’ve turned the ball over at a whopping 23% rate in conference road games, which is enormous against an Aggies defense that feeds off turnovers (22% rate, 14th nationally, per KenPom).
Secondly, they’re a ball-screen-centric offense running into Davis’ elite ball-screen coverage defense (.73 PPP allowed, 98th percentile, per Synergy).
Meanwhile, Bakersfield’s ball-screen coverage is horrific (.97 PPP allowed, seventh percentile, per Synergy), which will allow TY Johnson — one of my favorite mid-major guards — to cook. He dropped 26 in the first head-to-head matchup, including 15 on 13 pick-and-rolls (1.15 PPP, per Synergy).
More on that first head-to-head matchup — the Roadrunners dropped 75 in an 11-point home win in early January, which is unsurprising given they’re the league’s best home offense.
However, UC Davis was more efficient in ball-screen creation (.80 PPP to .46 PPP, per Synergy), which is crucial in a matchup between two pick-and-roll-reliant offenses.
The Aggies also shot just 4-for-21 (19%), and while they’re not a great shooting team, they’re better than that. In fact, they shot 1-for-11 on open catch-and-shoot jumpers in that game, per Synergy.
Meanwhile, Bakersfield shot just 36% from inside the arc but 39% from 3.
Ultimately, I’m banking on the Aggies generating turnovers, working more efficiently in ball screens and earning some better shooting variance in an excellent situational spot on their home court — especially against a team that can’t play on the road.
The big worry with this wager is on the boards. Bakersfield is a top-25 offensive rebounding squad nationally, while Davis struggles to clean the glass.
Unsurprisingly, the Roadrunners grabbed 19 offensive boards in the first matchup en route to 15 second-chance points.
I’ll need the Aggies to battle better on the boards. But if they do, everything else points toward Davis picking up a convincing victory.
Pick: UC Davis -3.5 (Play to -5)
Loyola Marymount vs Santa Clara
Santa Clara is a big favorite at home against Loyola Marymount, and this has the recipe of a blowout on Thursday in the WCC.
This is also a great revenge spot for the Broncos after they lost to the Lions earlier in the season, 57-54 on the road.
The Broncos are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games, so I expect them to handle business on Thursday.
