There are only three top-25 teams in action on Thursday in college basketball, but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value to be had in the sport.
In fact, our staff is eyeing four separate games for their best bets.
So, here's our college basketball best bets and odds, including four picks and predictions for Thursday, January 16.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
New Mexico State vs. FIU
New Mexico State will attempt to win a second consecutive road game for the first time in three years. The Aggies joined Conference USA a season ago, logging only lowly Jacksonville State as a road victory.
Head coach Jason Hooten comes off a blowout victory over UTEP in El Paso last Saturday, and now is faced with crossing two time zones.
Florida International will start a three game homestand after losing consecutive outings on the road. The Panthers already have a home conference victory, a blowout of a Western Kentucky team that's identically ranked with New Mexico State, per KenPom.
Florida International loves to score in the paint, generating a top-35 rate of baskets from within the arc.
New Mexico State has yet to face any team willing to execute under the basket, as opponents have ranked 311th in 2-point attempts against the Aggies. There are no expectations of blocks from New Mexico State, so stopping 6-foot-9 Jonathan Aybar — who's elite on the offensive glass — will be a tall task.
On the other side of the court, Vianney Salatchoum ranks top-25 nationally in blocks.
With New Mexico State ranking near-last in creating turnovers and sending opponents to the free throw line, look for Florida International to enjoy the friendly confines of Ocean Bank Convocation Center.
Pick: FIU +5 (Play +3)
Merrimack vs. Quinnipiac
Merrimack is likely the class of the MAAC after a 5-0 start in conference play, which is a surprising sight after it realigned from the NEC in the offseason.
That said, the Warriors have needed some lucky shooting variance to get here, canning 37% of their 3s while opponents have shot 23%. Those are wholly unsustainable numbers.
Meanwhile, Quinnipiac — which was projected as the league’s best team in the preseason — has stumbled to a 9-8 record this year thanks to unlucky shooting variance. The Bobcats have canned only 27% of their 3s, while opponents have shot nearly 35%. Again, wholly unsustainable marks.
I suspect the Warriors and Bobs will experience a two-way regression to the mean in Thursday’s matchup in Hamden.
From a more schematic perspective, both teams will play a ton of zone defense. While both offenses have been brutal this season, neither has recorded a large enough possession sample size to make any generalizations.
But Quinnipiac was the far better zone offense last year (1.1 PPP, 86th percentile), and I think that holds merit because both teams returned much of last year’s production.
Plus, I imagine the Bobcats’ zone offense numbers are deflated by some unlucky shooting (6-for-16 from 3 against zone this year, 27%).
Merrimack plays almost exclusively zone, but Quinnipiac will switch between that and man-to-man. However, the Bobcats’ perimeter ball-screen coverage is elite (.62 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed, 91st percentile), which is key when matching up with Merrimack’s Adam “Budd” Clark, the best ball-screen maestro among New England low-majors.
On the other end of the court, I’m praying that Quinnipiac makes a few more 3s over the zone. But if the Bobcats don’t, they should be able to play volleyball on the offensive boards against Merrimack’s zone, which leaves the glass wide open.
Quinnipiac scores 13 second-chance points per game (85th percentile), while Merrimack allows 12 (26th percentile).
Quinnipiac is 5-1 at home this year. Merrimack is 3-0 on the road in conference play, but two came against MAAC cellar-dwellers in Canisius and Niagara.
Plus, the Warriors aren’t playing all that well. They picked up close wins against Manhattan and Merrimack last week but failed to cover the spread in either game — it feels like they’re a little juiced in the markets.
The Warriors will lose a conference game eventually, and this feels like a good spot against a team that’s a little devalued after we projected it so highly in the preseason.
Pick: Quinnipiac ML -122 (Play to -130)
Appalachian State vs. Old Dominion
By Sean Paul
I loved the number at -3.5, but I’m still more than okay with taking the surging Appalachian State Mountaineers at -4.5.
App State has won three straight games by 11+ points — it's worth noting that all three games took place in Boone. This is the Mountaineers' first road game in Sun Belt play, but I’ve been highly impressed by their recent showings.
Additionally, I’m looking to fade Old Dominion, which sits No. 295 in KenPom but is 3-1 in conference play. The wins over Southern Miss and Louisiana don't move me, and this is a possible letdown spot following an emotional win over South Alabama in Mobile.
The Monarchs' offense is brutal, ranking 294th in offensive efficiency with a 45% effective field goal percentage.
That won’t fare well versus Dustin Kerns’ stout defense. Appalachian State ranks 86th in defensive efficiency, while holding opponents to a 46% effective field goal percentage.
It’s not a real stunner that App State took time to find its form, since four of its five starters hit the portal from last year's conference regular-season-winning team.
I love this road spot for a really well-coached team with a pair of studs — Myles Tate and CJ Huntley.
Pick: App State -4.5 (Play to -5)
Michigan vs. Minnesota
By Alex Hinton
Michigan may be a little under the radar nationally at No. 20 in the AP Poll, but it's up to No. 11 on KenPom. As a result, it's a 9.5-point favorite tonight in Minnesota.
However, the real value may be on its team total.
Michigan is 14th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, and it comes into tonight’s game averaging 85.1 points per game, led by its five double-digit scorers.
The Wolverines have cleared this line in nine of their last 10 games, while scoring 85 in each of their last eight games. That includes 94 points at UCLA, which has the 13th-best defense in the country.
The Wolverines want to play fast, ranking 48th in adjusted tempo and 14th in shortest average possession length.
Conversely, Minnesota will want to slow the game down (358th adjusted tempo and 336th in shortest average possession length).
Despite its slower pace, that hasn't stopped the Golden Gophers from hemorrhaging points.
Minnesota has allowed 80 points in five of its six conference games. In conference play, it's last in the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency, and it ranks 93rd in the category for the season.
Additionally, Minnesota may not be able to exploit Michigan’s biggest deficiency offensively as well as other teams.
Michigan’s offense is 328th in turnover percentage, and it averages basically 15 turnovers per game. However, Minnesota is 237th in turnover percentage defensively.
If Michigan keeps its turnovers to a moderate level tonight, it's going to score 78 points and it may get to its season average again tonight.
You can also back the Wolverines for over 84.5 points at +320 on DraftKings.
Pick: Michigan Team Total Over 77.5 Points (-105)
