Feast Week is approaching fast, but before we enter one of the best weeks of the season, there's some betting value in college basketball on Tuesday.
Our staff has spotlighted four particular games.
So, without further ado, here's college basketball best bets, including four picks and predictions for Tuesday's games on November 19.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Lipscomb vs. Kentucky
As much as I love Mark Pope’s Wildcats, they’re due for a letdown after that massive win over Duke.
You can’t lose focus against Lipscomb, which runs a complex pace-and-space motion-based offense that’s tough to prepare for.
The Bison are also a legit mid-major, the favorites in the ASUN behind the elite Will Pruitt-Joe Anderson backcourt tandem and walking frontcourt mismatch Jacob Ognacevic.
The results have yet to come for the 3-3 Bison, but the process is sound. They rank top-five nationally in ShotQuality’s Spacing and Shot Selection metrics. They’re shooting only 32% from deep, but ShotQuality projects that mark closer to 38% based on the “quality” of shots generated.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats are a tad overinflated in the markets after their first three opponents shot a combined 25% from deep — ShotQuality projects that number closer to 33% based on the “quality” of attempts allowed.
Kentucky has left 30 catch-and-shoot jumpers unguarded, yet opponents made only six, a simply unsustainable mark.
I’m banking on positive regression hitting the Bison offense while negative regression hits the Wildcat defense.
Moreover, the two-way shooting variance has way overinflated the spread. Our Action PRO Model projects the Bison as 13.5-point road ‘dogs, while KenPom and Bart Torvik project the spread closer to 17.
Pick: Lipscomb +21.5
Hofstra vs. Florida State
Speedy Claxton-led teams do two things well: Hofstra creates isolation mismatches on offense and viciously denies transition opportunities on defense.
Claxton-ball should play against Florida State. Leonard Hamilton-led teams are typically lengthy and versatile. They switch everything on defense and funnel opponents into isolation while trying to force turnovers and turn them into open-court buckets.
The Seminoles have played decent isolation defense through four games. Still, Hofstra has been scoring at will in those sets through four wins (1.41 PPP, 98th percentile) — including a one-point neutral-court victory over Seton Hall, which plays a similar switch-everything defensive scheme.
Meanwhile, Florida State’s half-court offense looks lost in the early going, scoring only 227 points in 267 possessions (.85 PPP, 26th percentile).
Hofstra must avoid turnovers, but the Pride can keep it close otherwise.
Most projection sites I trust make Florida State closer to a four-point home favorite than a seven-point one. It’s also a decently tough sandwich spot for the Noles, who just played a tough home game against in-state rival Florida and are preparing for the Mohegan Sun MTE this weekend.
Pick: Hofstra +8.5
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UT Arlington vs. Missouri State
This is a pure spot play.
Missouri State is likely gassed after a triple-overtime thriller against Tulsa on Saturday. At the same time, the Mavericks have a significant rest advantage after playing a non-D-I de-facto exhibition game on Friday against Texas College.
While the Bears somehow pulled out the win on Saturday and almost knocked off Butler last week, I’m hardly impressed with how they’ve gotten there.
They’re a ball-screen-heavy offense that lacks spacing and shot-making, and while they’ve shot 36% from 3 through three games, ShotQuality projects that number closer to 29% based on the “quality” of opportunities.
Given Missouri State’s inability to spread the floor, the Bears don’t profile well against zone defenses, and Arlington will often use zone coverage to neutralize its lack of size. The Bears will have to shoot over the top of the zone, and I’m banking on regression hitting them like a bag of bricks.
I’m worried about Arlington’s offense, which will run its up-tempo, perimeter-oriented, secondary-based motion offense into a perimeter-oriented, transition-denial defense.
But, again, the spot screams Mavericks.
So does the projection market, as our Action PRO model makes Arlington a 3.5-point road favorite, while EvanMiya and Bart Torvik project the Mavericks between -2 and -4.
Pick: UT Arlington +1.5
Purdue vs. Marquette
Marquette picked up a big road win against Maryland on Friday, with Shaka Smart’s prowess as an underdog once again coming through.
Purdue picked up a crucial win on the same night, beating highly-ranked Alabama at home.
Both teams carry that momentum into this matchup, with a real chance for one to slip up and have a disappointing letdown game.
Some signals would point to Purdue in that regard after the Boilers hit 9-of-16 3s against Bama. Fletcher Loyer remains ungodly levels of red hot to start the season, making 12-of-17 attempts from 3-point land so far (71%!).
As a team, Purdue is shooting 46% from deep, a mark sure to regress.
Yet, I can’t escape the idea that Purdue has enough of an advantage on the interior in this game to survive a shooting swoon. Trey Kaufman-Renn is a beast in the paint and will create a real challenge for Marquette five-man Ben Gold.
I’m worried that Marquette can shoot itself to a win here, but I feel great getting this many points.
This line is as low as 4.5 at other books and KenPom projects just a two-point game.
I’ll take my 5.5 and run with it.
Pick: Purdue +5.5
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