After a wild Wednesday filled with plenty of high-quality matchups, the slate thins out a bit in the college basketball world.
But that doesn't mean there isn't betting value to be had.
In fact, here's college basketball best bets and odds, including four predictions and picks for Thursday, December 5.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Samford vs. South Carolina State
South Carolina State is in a fantastic bounce-back spot coming home following back-to-back road losses against Marshall and Xavier. It looked great in a three-point loss to the Musketeers, jumping out to an early lead and keeping the game within a possession until the buzzer.
Meanwhile, Samford is due for a letdown performance, as it's heading on the road after three home victories over 0-10 West Georgia, 4-4 Utah Valley and 6-4 North Dakota State in overtime.
I really like South Carolina State. The Bulldogs play with their hair on fire for 40 minutes a night, harassing opposing ball-handlers, living off turnovers, running the floor, attacking the basket, drawing fouls, crashing the boards, et cetera.
Erik Martin’s squad can play with such vigor because he runs an uber-deep lineup. The Bulldogs led the nation in bench minutes last season (50%) and currently rank second through nine games this year (48%).
That depth and intensity will be crucial against Samford and Bucky McMillan.
Everybody knows and loves Buckyball. The Bulldogs attack relentlessly on both ends of the court, leveraging its press-happy zone defense into a fast-break rim-and-3 offense.
However, South Carolina State is among the few teams nationally with the necessary depth and maniacal intensity to keep up with Bucky and Co. for 40 minutes.
And I think Martin’s Bulldogs have several ancillary advantages that should keep this game much closer than the spread indicates.
For starters, South Carolina State is a fully-formed team with plenty of returning production, ranking seventh nationally in minutes continuity.
Meanwhile, Samford lost five key rotation pieces from last season’s NCAA Tournament team, so Coach McMillan is still building cohesion and chemistry with seven incoming transfers.
Returning production and continuity always play in early-season college basketball handicapping — the teams with more will beat the ones with less in November and December.
Additionally, these teams play similarly in that they live in transition. Both teams force turnovers and push the court on offense, but they also are prone to live-ball turnovers and spend plenty of time defending in transition.
The difference is that South Carolina State’s transition defense has held up surprisingly well on a per-possession basis, ranking 18th nationally in transition PPP allowed (.79). Meanwhile, Samford’s allowing the second-most fast-break points per game nationally (21).
Another key matchup point: Living in transition means you’re generally pressuring the rim.
In the absence of Achor Achor, Samford lacks any semblance of rim protection and rebounding, allowing 40 paint points (20th-most nationally) and 16 second-chance points (seventh-most) per game. These Bulldogs are miniature in the frontcourt, often running 6-foot-9 Jaden Brownell at the five, and their defense is getting obliterated at the rim.
I fully expect a lengthier, rim-reliant South Carolina State squad (117th nationally in average height, running 6-foot-11 at the five) to take advantage on both ends. These Bulldogs score over 45% of their points in the paint (71st percentile), including nearly 12 second-chance points per game (66th percentile), while allowing opponents to generate fewer than 42% of their points in the paint (63rd percentile).
The extra length could also be crucial in a matchup between two teams that love crashing the offensive glass and struggle to clean the defensive boards.
In the half-court, Samford runs a healthy dose of zone defense, and South Carolina State’s zone offense has produced just fine in the early going, scoring 93 points on 92 possessions (1.01 PPP, 61st percentile).
SCST has been feeding Drayton Jones on rim-running cuts, a good way to beat a press-happy, perimeter-oriented zone coverage that allows 1.26 cutting PPP (36th percentile).
On the other end of the half-court, Samford will mainly run hand-off and ball-screen sets. However, South Carolina State is among the nation’s best DHO and ball-screen denial defenses.
My biggest worry is that Samford overwhelms South Carolina State in the 3-point battle, given that Bucky’s squad shoots 38% from deep while ranking in the top-50 nationally in 3-point rate. Erik’s team packs it in on defense (sub-250th in 3-point rate allowed) and can’t shoot.
But Samford is due for a tiny bit of regression in that department. ShotQuality projects that these Bulldogs should be shooting closer to 35% from deep based on the “quality” of attempts.
Ultimately, I’ll take my chances with the more experienced, well-rounded squad that’s more than comfortable playing Bucky’s style.
The projection models agree with me. KenPom makes the spread Samford -6, EvanMiya makes it Samford -5, Bart Torvik makes it Samford -7 and ShotQualityBets makes it a pick ‘em. These squads are pretty evenly matched, right down to the mascot names.
Pick: South Carolina State +8.5 (Play to +7)
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Xavier vs. TCU
By John Feltman
The Big East-Big 12 battle continues on Thursday evening as the TCU Horned Frogs get set to host the Xavier Musketeers.
Xavier is off to an impressive 7-1 start, but its strength of schedule is 340th in the country. It faced a decent Wake Forest team at home and Michigan on a neutral court.
I am still waiting to buy the Xavier hype, so a win on the road here can change the way I view them moving forward. But I believe TCU is the play for this matchup.
Despite a 4-3 start, it is a good buy-low opportunity for the Horned Frogs. They only shoot 32% from deep, and Xavier has allowed its opponents to shoot 38% in that area.
It's been a massive struggle at the free-throw line for TCU, shooting 59% as a team. However, they get to the line often enough for me to believe it will begin turning that around.
The Horned Frogs also shoot 50% from inside the arc, another area where I foresee favorable shooting fortune. The Horned Frogs have the depth advantage and, surprisingly, are the lengthier team against a small Xavier squad.
The Frogs still need that go-to scorer piece on their team, but they have enough cohesiveness to hang with formidable competition. They are unselfish and are a strong defensive-minded group.
The Frogs are 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency and generate a lot of turnovers and blocks.
I like the boost the Frogs will get from their home court, and I think Xavier is in for a rude awakening. This is the peak of the market for the Musketeers, and as much as they have improved from a year ago, I am happy to sell high on them here.
Pick: TCU +1 (Play to -3)
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Xavier vs. TCU
I agree with my colleague John on the Horned Frogs.
I loathe the matchup, as TCU’s transition defense could get diced up by Xavier’s up-tempo attack, and the Musketeers can keep the Frogs off the offensive glass.
That said, the Horned Frogs hold up alright against opposing post players, and Zach Freemantle looks like a shell of himself.
But — ultimately — the spot is too good to pass up.
Xavier barely held off South Carolina State at home on Sunday, sneaking by with a three-point win. The Musketeers could slingshot back to how they looked against Michigan last Wednesday when the Wolverines carved them up in a 25-point loss.
The Musketeers have plenty of problems, which could rear their ugly head in the squad’s first true road game.
Meanwhile, TCU should come out at home with its hair on fire after back-to-back neutral-court losses to Santa Clara and Colorado State, the latter coming in overtime. The Horned Frogs are in a perfect bounce-back spot.
Also, TCU lost to Michigan on the road by only 12. The Horned Frogs played Michigan much better than Xavier did.
The models project the Frogs much higher than the market does, with KenPom, ShotQualityBets, Haslametrics and Bart Torvik all making TCU between a three-to-five-point favorite.
Our Action PRO model projects this line closer to Frogs -4.
Pick: TCU ML -105 (Play to -110)
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Saint Louis vs. San Francisco
Saint Louis is getting obliterated in the markets. But early-season college basketball line movement means next to nothing, so I’m willing to fade some steam and back the Dons when I project them as double-digit home favorites.
I simply haven’t been that impressed with the Billikens so far. Josh Schertz is a wizard who should have the Robbie Avila offense cooking by the time conference play rolls around.
Still, they have struggled when punching up in competition during the non-conference, losing by eight to KenPom No. 86 Santa Clara and by 25 to KenPom No. 91 Wichita State. They also were somewhat lucky to hold off UMass Lowell by three at home.
Sure, Avila has been dealing with injuries, but he played significant minutes in two of those three games mentioned above.
San Francisco took a beating against Clemson, but the Dons also beat KenPom No. 48 Boise State by double-digits at home and took the up-and-coming Memphis Tigers to the wire.
Sure, there’s no more Jonathan Mogbo, but Malik Thomas is pouring in over 17 points per game, and Chris Gerlufsen still runs a competent, analytically-friendly rim-and-3 offense.
That offense is predicated on athletic wings slashing toward the rim or pulling up over the top. Meanwhile, the Billikens’ defense is getting gashed in both areas, simultaneously allowing the nation’s 10th-highest Open 3 Rate and opponents to shoot 68% at the rim (21st percentile).
The SLU offense is trending up, but Coach Schertz might struggle to get his hub-and-spoke, Avila-centered offense going against a Dons squad that grades out borderline-elite at defending cutting (.83 PPP allowed, 97th percentile), DHO (.69 PPP allowed, 69th percentile) and ball-screen (.84 PPP allowed, 71st percentile) actions.
San Francisco’s transition defense can also hang (.88 transition PPP allowed, 85th percentile) if the Billikens start running the open court, as they are liable to do (17 transition possessions per game, 86th percentile).
I mostly like the matchup for San Francisco, and I think the line is short against a Saint Louis team that consistently underperformed in November.
Pick: San Francisco -7.5 (Play to -9)
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