Saturday College Basketball Best Bets

Every Saturday for the remainder of the season is big in college basketball, but this week, we have one heck of a slate.

We have three top-10 matchups, including Houston vs. Kansas, Duke vs. North Carolina and Tennessee vs. Kentucky.

We'll feature one of those three matchups in this college basketball best bets piece, so dive in below for our staff's six picks for Saturday, February 3.

College Basketball Best Bets for Saturday

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Miami -2.5
	12 p.m.	Miami -2.5
	4 p.m.	Texas A&M -2
	4 p.m.	Texas A&M -2
	4 p.m.	Kansas +2.5
	4 p.m.	Houston 1H ML
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Saturday, Feb. 3

12 p.m. ET

ESPN

Miami -2.5

By D.J. James

The Miami Hurricanes are a bit undervalued on Saturday as a short home favorite against the Virginia Tech Hokies.

Virginia Tech has been solid, but it won't have the defensive wherewithal to stave off Miami’s offense.

The Hurricanes are shooting nearly 38% from downtown and take 3s more often than 2s. On the season, Virginia Tech has held opponents to only 33% from downtown. The Hokies also rank 195th in Open-3 Rate defensively.

Miami ranks 218th in Open-3 Rate on defense, but Virginia Tech is shooting slightly worse at 36%. That’s big considering the Canes have held opponents to less than 30% from 3. Yes, some luck is enveloped in that, but it’s a better mark than the Hokies have.

The largest gap in this game, though, may come from inside the arc.

Miami ranks 51st in points per possession at the rim, per ShotQuality, while hitting about 55% of 2-pointers. Teams are shooting about 50% on the Hokies, and Virginia Tech is particularly bad at guarding the rim, ranking 348th.

Yes, Miami’s interior defense hasn't manufactured the best results, but the Hurricanes rank 40th in the same area defensively. They should get some stops.

Miami typically struggles on the glass, but so does Virginia Tech. That means the rebounding margin could be pretty even.

Finally, Miami rarely fouls. Even though the Hurricanes rarely get to the free-throw line themselves, the Hokies foul more often. It only helps that this game takes place in Miami.

Take the Canes to -4.5.

Pick: Miami -2.5 (Play to -4.5)

Miami -2.5

By Patrick Strollo

Miami (14-7, 5-5) will return home after dropping a tight road contest against NC State on Tuesday night, 74-68. The rested Hurricanes will host Virginia Tech (13-8, 5-5), which is coming off of a 77-67 home loss to Duke.

Both teams are evenly matched, and clearly, Vegas concurs here, with the home team opening as a short favorite against the visiting Hokies.

Still, I think the Hokies are getting a little too much love here.

My model has Miami projected as a 4.5-point favorite on its home court. I think this opening line of 2.5 is something bettors should jump all over, as the sharpshooting Hurricanes look to bounce back from a tough shooting night against NC State.

Normally one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the ACC, Miami struggled from beyond the arc against NC State, connecting on just 7-of-28 (25%) attempts. I fully expect Miami to revert to the mean here, especially on its home court. It should shoot at or above its season average of 37.9% from 3-point land.

Virginia Tech has a marginal 3-point defense, allowing opponents to connect on 33.0% of attempts. In fact, 3-point defense was part of its undoing against No. 7 Duke earlier this week, as the Blue Devils connected on 9-of-17 shots (52.9%) from downtown.

Miami’s shooting story extends inside the arc as well. The Hurricanes have the highest effective field goal percentage in the ACC and rank 19th in the nation, scoring on an impressive 55.7% of shot attempts.

I believe that the combination of home-court advantage and better shooting will propel the Hurricanes to a victory in this bounce-back spot.

I recommend laying the chalk in Coral Gables, and I would bet Miami all the way to 4.5 points.

Pick: Miami -2.5 (Play to -4.5)

Saturday, Feb. 3

4 p.m. ET

ESPN2

Texas A&M -2

By Charlie DiSturco

This is among my favorite buy-low, sell-high spots of the Saturday slate.

Florida’s stock has skyrocketed after dropping its opening two games of conference play. The Gators have won four straight — including a pair of overtime wins — and avenged their SEC-opening loss against Kentucky on Wednesday.

After a physical and emotional win, Florida now travels to Texas A&M for what’ll be yet another brawl of a game.

The Aggies have been inconsistent in SEC play, beating Kentucky but also dropping winnable games against LSU (at home), Arkansas, and most recently, Ole Miss.

If you love ugly, then Texas A&M’s offense is for you.

This team ranks 351st in eFG%, and aside from Wade Taylor IV, really struggles to create its own shot. The offense can stall out at times and collapse against more physical teams, as we saw against Auburn.

But this is a Florida defense that teams can push around, and A&M ranks No. 1 in the country in offensive rebounding. The Aggies also happen to draw fouls at a high rate and don’t turn the ball over.

On the other end. Florida doesn’t force turnovers. The Gators run opponents off the 3-point line toward their biggest strength — length — inside. That physicality, length and athleticism can be topped by the likes of A&M.

For what it’s worth, ShotQuality projects Texas A&M for major positive regression when it comes to offensive success. It’s projected to finish at the rim 6% more on average, as well as 6% from beyond the arc and in the mid-range.

We know what this Florida team wants to do, and it’s similar to that of the Aggies. The Gators aren’t a great shooting team and rank No. 2 in offensive rebounding.

That plays perfectly into Texas A&M’s hands.

The Aggies love to play under ball screens and force opponents to beat them from deep. During conference play, Texas A&M also happens to be the No. 1 defensive rebounding team.

I love this spot for A&M at home. Florida has to continue its road travel fresh off two straight overtime clashes, just in time for another battle at Reed Arena.

Back Taylor, the best player on the floor, to secure an important home win for the Aggies’ NCAA tournament resume.

Pick: Texas A&M -2 (Play to -3.5)

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Texas A&M -2

By Matt Gannon

This is a great spot to fade the Gators.

They’re coming off a revenge win at Rupp Arena against one of the best teams in the SEC in Kentucky. Back-to-back conference road games are never easy, and coming back down to earth after a massive victory will throw another wrench into that.

Florida has exceeded expectations thus far, but it’s been vulnerable away from Gainesville.

Winning on the road in the SEC is always a tough ask, and some of these new Gators aren't used to playing in these environments. Their main production comes from mid-major transfers who have little hostile road environment experience. I would expect them to come out of the gates extremely slow.

Texas A&M hasn't lived up to the hype this season, but it’s still a very talented team. The Aggies are also coming off a home loss to Ole Miss and should be dialed in for this one.

A&M head coach Buzz Williams is going to dial up the defensive pressure and press early and often. That'll be a great way to get the Gators out of their comfort zone early.

Roll with the Aggies in College Station.

Pick: Texas A&M -2 (Play to -4)

Saturday, Feb. 3

4 p.m. ET

ESPN

Kansas +2.5

By Shane McNichol

This one’s simple: Kansas as a home ‘dog is a must-bet.

In his tenure as the head man in Lawrence, Bill Self has coached nearly 300 games at Phog Allen Fieldhouse — 278 to be exact.

His team has closed as an underdog exactly twice in that entire period. Baylor was a 4.5-point favorite at Allen Fieldhouse in February 2021. Ohio State laid 2.5 points against Kansas back in December 2011.

In both cases, Kansas not only covered and won outright, but won the game by double digits.

Those were not flukes. That Baylor team lost just twice all year. Those Buckeyes made the Final Four (where they’d lose to Kansas again).

Rolling into Lawrence and leaving with a win is one of the toughest tasks in the sport.

This Kansas team has its flaws, and Houston is a very formidable opponent, but I can look beyond all of that.

When given the chance to take one of the best — if not the best — coaches and programs at home as an underdog, I’ll quickly and happily take the points every time.

Pick: Kansas +2.5

Houston 1H ML

By Collin Wilson

The showcase game of the day comes from the Big 12, as Houston will continue to position itself for a run at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Kansas, meanwhile, will look to defend Allen Fieldhouse after a rash of losses on the road during the month of January.

The matchups indicate a barn-burner, as Jayhawks center Hunter Dickinson will look to pound the paint against the nation’s best team in terms of defensive efficiency.

Houston is the slight favorite for the game, and there’s reason to believe it gets out to a fast start.

Per Bet Labs, Houston has been the fourth-most profitable team in the nation in regard to first-half betting. The Cougars are 14-3-1 against the number in the first 20 minutes.

Head coach Kelvin Sampson needed overtime in Houston’s latest victory at Texas, but five days of rest and minimal road travel shouldn’t be a blocker for a fast start.

The inverse is in play for Kansas, which has gone 7-12 against the spread in the first half this season.

There are plenty of defensive advantages for Houston in this game. Kansas receives a heavy distribution of points from inside the arc, an area where the Cougars lead the nation defensively.

Ball security continues to be an issue for the Jayhawks’ ball-handlers, so Jamal Shead and Emanuel Sharp will harass a Kansas offense that sits outside the top 200 in steal rate.

Look for Houston to get off to a fast start with its defense, as the home crowd is sure to get Kansas back in the game during the second half.

Pick: Houston 1H ML (Play to -2)