The College Football Playoff National Championship will take center stage tonight in the sports landscape. But before the big game, there is value to be had in college basketball.
Three Man Weave's Jim Root dives into three mid-major games and offers up three best bets below.
Prep your betting card on the hardwood before your attention turns to the turf!
Monday's College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Wofford vs. UNC Greensboro
Monday, Jan. 10 6 p.m. ET ESPN+ |
UNC Greensboro +3.5  |
If you do anything long enough, you start to recognize familiar situations to past experiences. For instance, I cannot see “Wofford laying points at UNCG” without remembering one of my all-time worst bets.
Three years ago on this exact date, Fletcher Magee and Wofford utterly destroyed UNCG as a short road favorite. The Terriers had such laughable leads — 18-2 and 68-32 — and completely dominated a team that was ostensibly a near-equal.
But the past never repeats itself, right?
Back to the well I go! These are two different teams with two different coaches, so history should not matter. Instead, UNCG’s edges in experience and physicality will be the deciding factors.
UNCG is the oldest team in the SoCon by a fairly significant margin, per KenPom’s weighted experience calculation, and having a rotation of entirely juniors and seniors is a great benefit in the mid-major world.
Wofford, while talented, is significantly younger and on the road. Even though Wofford has a couple of useful bigs, UNCG plays with a different level of brute force on both ends of the floor.
As an added bonus, UNCG’s Keyshaun Langley continues to get his feet under him after being suspended for the first semester. He was the Spartans’ leading returning scorer, so his reintegration into the offense is a key jolt of perimeter dynamism.
The fear here is that Wofford goes nuts from beyond the arc. The Terriers rank 11th nationally in 3PA rate, while the UNCG defense is dead last in that same stat.
The Spartans’ compact, conservative style can work because of their length and quickness, but if Wofford catches fire, we could have another 2019 blowout on our hands.
Most importantly, though, the number is right. These teams are of extremely similar caliber, so getting a field goal at home is a great price.
I would not play this one below +3, though. This should be an extremely slow game, and though I do think UNCG gets the win, the one-basket cushion could prove vital.
Pick: UNC Greensboro +3.5 (Play to +3)
Navy vs. Lafayette
Monday, Jan. 10 7 p.m. ET ESPN+ |
Navy -10 |
The Midshipmen have become something of a “boogeyman”-esque presence over the last two seasons. Coach Ed DeChellis has transformed the program into an against-the-spread juggernaut, using pristine execution and suffocating defense to rack up an absurd 23-8 record against the number.
I have often found myself against Navy through this stretch, confident I was “selling high” on such a wild run of covers. My wallet is significantly lighter as a result. So instead, if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!
Looking at why Navy has been so dominant makes me believe it is sustainable.
The Midshipmen have bought into a tough, disciplined defensive style that makes life exceedingly difficult for their opponents (no shock there — they’re military men!).
DeChellis uses a deep rotation to keep the intensity ratcheted up, meaning opponents see no reprieve throughout the game.
Lafayette is a smart, well-coached team, but the Leopards are hardly a physical bunch. They struggle on the glass on both ends, and they prefer to shoot over the top of defenses rather than probe the interior.
Navy will take away many of those perimeter shots, and the Midshipmen are too smart to be sliced up by Lafayette’s ball movement and execution.
On the other end, Navy manufactures points via the brilliant John Carter Jr. and several skilled finishers, both inside and out. The Mids’ versatility will give Lafayette headaches, especially center Neal Quinn, as the big man is hyper-skilled but slow of foot.
Key guard Greg Summers has missed the last two games for Navy, but it has not mattered. The Midshipmen have rolled to easy wins (and covers) against Boston University and Bucknell without him. If he returns from his hamstring issues, that’s purely a bonus on this wager.
I don’t mind laying double-digits on the road here, as Lafayette’s home atmosphere does not scare me.
Pick: Navy -10 (Play to -11)
Omaha vs. UMKC
Monday, Jan. 10 8 p.m. ET Roos All-Access |
Over 142  |
Let’s end the night with some points, shall we?
The Summit League is renowned for its fireworks displays, as most teams in the league shrug at the thought of defense. So far this season, the conference ranks first in efficiency, with its teams tallying a staggering 1.1 points per possession in Summit play.
Omaha is a massive reason for that. The Mavericks have a bottom-15 defense in the country, per KenPom.com’s adjusted efficiency, and improvement does not appear to be on the horizon.
The team’s two best big men, Wanjang Tut and Isaiah Poor Bear-Chandler, have been out with injuries. That has forced head coach Derrin Hansen to roll with small-ball lineups flush with shooting and bereft of size. Not only has that hurt the Mavs’ defense, but it has given boosts to their offense and tempo, as well.
Those smaller, faster groups have made Omaha a perfect storm for overs. Prior to this weekend, nine straight Omaha contests had gone over, per TeamRankings.
The Mavs’ most recent outing had 80 possessions (!), but it managed to stay under due to insanely poor shooting (combined 9-for-41 from beyond the 3-point arc). Do not expect a repeat of such futility.
Ok, one caveat. The host Kangaroos are one of the few Summit teams that bother to play defense. They are also coming off a COVID pause, which could impact key personnel and make them out of rhythm on either end.
Still, given the Summit-wide and Omaha-specific trends, the over should be a solid bet.
Pick: Over 142 (Play to 144)
